股海一粟的博客
投資是一門藝術，投資是一所永遠的學校。股海一粟第一次接觸到股票還是在1988年，那時候上海隻有老八股，沒有正規的交易所。。。那一年股海一粟隻有10歲。
正文
The market ended the day essentially flat, which was not bad at all considering the huge gains earlier this week and a worse-than-expected Non-farm payroll report early this morning. For the week, the Dow rose almost 400 points, or 3.2%, with nearly all the advance coming on Tuesday. The S&P 500 gained 4.2% in the week to 1370, the biggest weekly gain in 2 months. The Nasdaq, which had its best week in more than 2 years, gained almost 5% and finished the week at 2370. Other major indices are doing equally well if not better. For example, the Dow Transportation Average advanced 4.7% for the week and is now almost 25% higher than the lows reached in January 22nd.
All eyes were on the monthly Non-farm payrolls report this morning. Some investors had hoped for a positive surprise which might take the Dow right through the key resistance of 12750. Interestingly, the Dow futures were up almost 100 points and just inches away from that resistance level seconds before the report was released. But such a hope was quickly evaporated. The Non-farm payrolls declined by 80K vs. a drop of 50K expected. Also, the previous two months’ payrolls were revised lower: January’s was revised to -76K from -23K and February’s was revised to -76K from -63K. In the meantime, the unemployment rate jumped to 5.1% from 4.8% and it was the second time this year that we saw a 0.3% month-over-month jump in the unemployment rate. The news immediately sent equity futures lower and bond prices higher. As the job report usually acts as a lagging indicator, it should come as no surprise if we see the unemployment rate climb higher in the next few months. On the other hand, it also gives the Fed more room to keep an accommodative monetary policy.
Commodities especially basic materials continued to outperform the broad market. Financials were under some pressure as investors were worried that the first quarter earnings result may not look good. The US dollar was lower against most major currencies as traders increased their bets of a 50bps cut in the Fed’s next meeting late this month. Treasuries rallied across the board and the yield curve continued to flatten. As for the coming week, Alcoa will officially kick off the earnings season on Monday and it will be a relatively quiet week in terms of economic news.
All eyes were on the monthly Non-farm payrolls report this morning. Some investors had hoped for a positive surprise which might take the Dow right through the key resistance of 12750. Interestingly, the Dow futures were up almost 100 points and just inches away from that resistance level seconds before the report was released. But such a hope was quickly evaporated. The Non-farm payrolls declined by 80K vs. a drop of 50K expected. Also, the previous two months’ payrolls were revised lower: January’s was revised to -76K from -23K and February’s was revised to -76K from -63K. In the meantime, the unemployment rate jumped to 5.1% from 4.8% and it was the second time this year that we saw a 0.3% month-over-month jump in the unemployment rate. The news immediately sent equity futures lower and bond prices higher. As the job report usually acts as a lagging indicator, it should come as no surprise if we see the unemployment rate climb higher in the next few months. On the other hand, it also gives the Fed more room to keep an accommodative monetary policy.
Commodities especially basic materials continued to outperform the broad market. Financials were under some pressure as investors were worried that the first quarter earnings result may not look good. The US dollar was lower against most major currencies as traders increased their bets of a 50bps cut in the Fed’s next meeting late this month. Treasuries rallied across the board and the yield curve continued to flatten. As for the coming week, Alcoa will officially kick off the earnings season on Monday and it will be a relatively quiet week in terms of economic news.
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