美國戰略家十年前製定的挑撥中日開戰的計劃

美國戰略家十年前製定的挑撥中日開戰的計劃

危言

John J. Mearsheimer 是美國很有影響力的鷹派戰略家.在他10年前所寫的重要主要著作
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics
中認為,中國的強大是對美國的威脅.

page 400:

The second possible distribution of power would result if China\'s economy continues growing at a robust pace and it eventually becomes a potential hegemon. The United States would either remain in Northeast Asia or return someday to make sure that China does not become a peer competitor. ..... Northeast Asia would obviously be an unbalanced multipolar system if China threatened to dominate the entire regions; as such it would be a far more dangerous place than it is now. China, like all previous potential hegemons, would be strongly inclined to become a real hegemon, and all of its revials, including the United States, would encircle China to try to keep it from expanding. Engagement politicies and the like would not dull China\'s appetite for power, which would be considerable.

page 401
It is clear that the most dangerous scenario the United States might face in the early twenty-first century is one in which China becomes a potential hegemon in Northeast Asia. Of course, China\'s prospects of becoming a potential hegemon depend largely on whether its economy continues modernizing at a rapid pace.... it (China) would surely pursue regional hegemony, just as the United States did in the Western Hemisphere during the nineteenth century. So we would expect China to dominate Japan ...

What makes a future Chinese threat so worrisone is that it might be far more powerful and dangerous than any of the potential hegemons that the United States confronted in the twentieth centruy.

他對美國政府的建議是挑撥中日開戰,美國從中漁利.這一點在他的書中通過暗示的方式講出.美國其他學者對此作了通俗易懂的解釋:

http://works.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1002&context=qerimqerimi
page 23

Mearsheimer offers a series of predictions for the twenty-first century, which he acknowledges will not be perfectly accurate, and issues recommendations for US policy. First, he predicts that the US will withdraw its troops from Northeast Asia and Europe. (footnote Matthew Foley, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics by John J. Mearsheimer”, National Strategy Forum Review, Winter 2001.) Later, there will likely be wars in these regions as states struggle to contain the potential
hegemons of Germany, Japan, and China. Mearsheimer argues that the US should allow these wars to happen, first hanging back, then joining in near the end so it can win the war and have a part in dictating the terms of the peace. These actions would be suitable for a US with no economic interests or moral beliefs.


Mearsheimer的主要觀點是大國之間戰爭不可避免,進攻是最好的防禦,因此他要美國主動出擊,在戰略上搶先擊垮世界其他大國(包括中國,俄國和聯合起來的歐洲).布什的先發製人實質上是Mearsheimer理論的具體實施.美國在這一過程中遭到了慘敗.但這並不等於美國放棄了Mearsheimer的戰略思想.而且美國建立了有效的反導彈係統,以及通過首次核打擊摧毀俄羅斯90%核力量的準備.兩者的結合使美國人幻想一舉摧毀俄國所有核力量.如果美國征服俄國,那麽美國也不會放過中國.曆史上重大經濟危機常常伴隨法西斯勢力抬頭,中國對此需要警惕.

希望奧巴馬總統能夠扭轉美國軍國主義分子的這些瘋狂舉動.

關於Mearsheimer理論的其他分析見後麵的參考文獻.

參考文獻

http://www.fhy.net/index/gbidx02a.html

美國國際政治學中的鴿派與鷹派
　　　　　　　　－－《強權政治的悲劇》介紹與分析之一　
楓華園0205b

美中戰爭的理論依據－－
　　　　　　　　《強權政治的悲劇》介紹與分析之二
楓華園0205c
中華民族到了最危險的時候
　　　　　　《強權政治的悲劇》介紹與分析之三
http://www.fhy.net/On-line/2002/fhy0205e.html

人類文明受到美國極權主義的威脅
　　　　　　　　　　－－《強權政治的悲劇》介紹與分析之四
http://www.fhy.net/On-line/2002/fhy0206b.html

美歐戰爭的陰影
　　　　　　　　　　　－－《強權政治的悲劇》介紹與分析之五
http://www.fhy.net/On-line/2002/fhy0206c.html

中國應當成為世界和平的主導力量
　　　　　　　　　　　　　－－《強權政治的悲劇》介紹與分析之六
http://www.fhy.net/On-line/2002/fhy0206d.html