2006/08/31 看盤筆記

2006/08/31 看盤筆記

指數繼續強勢調整

各主要大盤股壓製住指數。
如果明天MSFT突破$26.10,INTC收在$19.84組成突破線上多方炮，下周可樂觀地看漲。
SP100在年高附近強勢調整，期待領漲SP500。

目前策略：
買股或short put.
Happy trading and happy long weekend.

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大盤股都在打壓指數。
現在我沒考慮止損的問題。
如果指數跌了，會接著買進。
然後若指數不好，再考慮止損的問題。
目前的強勢調整不是大盤股支撐的，所以我認為盤勢的確很強。
這種調整走勢能寫出啥及格的東西？
5分鍾圖上幾個領漲股在指數稍有突破時就同時下調。
所以隻能說是主力不想突破。
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目前SPX的形態很unique

沒有曆史相似的可循。

比較類似的是今年三月的走勢。今年三月的走勢基本都在1295以上的突破線上調整。這次都在1290（或1280）的突破線上調整。這次調整的振幅很小。

10天前short SPX call或5天前short SPX put，到今天都是基本平盤。反過來說10天前buy SPX call或5天前buy SPX put基本是一個小賠的狀態。目前的成交量小，大家都在觀望。

若向上突破，會放量。

若向下突破，不一定會放量。跌到1290才可能放量。1290是強支撐和20日均線。
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有曆史相似的可循
typically, summer rally end near labor day. mkt made short term top near the end of August many many times.

don't trust recent rally too much. mms can easily manipulate the index with so thin volume by upgrade intc, amd....lift csco aapl... smh/naz are very overbot in short term, naz may test 2150 (between 10,20ema) soon..
many strong stocks went back to previous high, many gapdown stocks filled the gap, recent earnings in tech such as cien adct ltxx jdsu... are horrible. so....
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What I am noticing/thinking is, the market would have broken out had JPM/C/BAC/MSFT/GE broken out. Whenever indice reached a good point ready to break out, these stocks went down simultaneously and hence the indice became absolute flat.

I agree that September is one of the worst in history. Well, May is one of the best. But we got a big down the passed May.

So I would stick to the trend reading. I personally don't trust this strong market that much, o/w I would have bought calls.
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我看熊的標準

SPX/NDX->1285/1540

同時：

MSFT->$25-
INTC->$19
GE->$33.50-
JPM->$44-
C->48.50-
PFE->$27-
PG->$60.50-

不一定全部符合，但大部分符合。
個人信條從不試圖放空在最高點。

現在手持強勢股等待。若突破則加碼。