The question regarding soft or hard landings with respect to our nations housing "bubble" is about to get answered, with a touch down that will evolve into a very hard landing. This hard landing may put at risk the entire economy. The two largest culprits are homebuilders/mortgage firms that forced real estate appraisers to come up with inflated valuations and the second culprit are teaser rate, adjustable rate mortgage products that are now starting to adjust beyond many homeowners ability to make the payment. The victims are or will be our nation's homeowners, our nation's pension funds and ultimately the U.S. Taxpayer in a Katrina type bail out. (PRWEB) September 6, 2006 -- The question regarding a national real estate bubble, and or a hard or soft landing according to the President of The National Mortgage Complaint Center/Homeowners Consumer Center "is about to get answered." Mr. Thomas Martin the President of this group has indicated that the "bubble is going to be more like a nuclear detonation with consequences getting progressively worse, with no quick fix." He calls it "the Hurricane Katrina of real estate, because everyone knew it was coming and no one prepared for what it would, or could do."
"Lagging home sales and home price reductions are but one indicator, ever increasing foreclosures are the second.The reality is that with real estate valuations coming back to earth many homeowners have no equity left in their homes or actually owe more than their home is worth." So how did this happen? Martin says the answer can be summed up in one word, "Greed."
For over two years the National Mortgage Complaint Center has been expressing concern/panic over regional or national homebuilders forcing local real estate appraisers to come up with inflated or over-valued real estate valuations. The net result is, as builders inflated the price of their new homes, existing homeowners inflated theirs. This practice goes back to about 1998. It was a game of musical chairs. According to Martin,"at some point the music would stop and someone would get left without a chair. In this instance it will be the homeowners who recently purchased a home and or the pension funds who thought they were buying a real estate portfolio worth 100%. In reality new mortgage backed securities might only be worth 90% or 85%. Ultimately it will be the taxpayer; as this real estate bubble burst will call for another massive federal bail-out just like the Savings & Loan Bail Out of the late 1980s & early 1990s."
The other culprit according to Martin is a "greedy mortgage industry combined with a Fannie Mae, Senate & House Banking Committee all asleep at the switch with respect to ridiculous mortgage products such as adjustable rate mortgages (ARM's) with start rates as low as 1%. The problem is, the borrower did not understand that the rates would increase, or these mortgage products allowed borrowers to qualify for a mortgage they could never other wise afford. At some point the borrower realizes they cannot make the payments or they owe more on the home than it is actually worth, and they walk away from the house or they face foreclosure." According to Martin, "the combination of blackmailing real estate appraisers into inflated valuations combined with insane mortgage products creates the perfect storm for a real estate disaster that could be our nations most costly real estate melt down in history."
全美房地產貸款投訴中心和夥伴單位房地產擁有者消費者中心建議房屋擁有者采取以下措施來度過2006年的房地產泡沫破碎危機：
The National Mortgage Complaint Center & its partner The Homeowners Consumer Center suggest homeowners do the following to weather the 2006 real estate bubble burst.
1. 如果能現在不賣的話，盡量不要賣房屋。如果是在非賣不可，那就現在賣，即使你必須降價。全美或者一些地區的房地產可能最終會比現在的價錢跌10-20%，尤其是前一段時間房地產特別火熱的一些地區像加州，亞利桑那，內華達，華盛頓特區大都市地區，紐約，佛羅裏達，和南北卡羅林納。這些市場的房價有可能需要5到7年的時間才能恢複到2005年的水平。
1. Don't sell right now if you don't have to. If you do have to sell, do it now, even if you have to reduce your price. The national or some regional markets may ultimately correct to 10%-20% less than current market valuations, especially in formerly hot markets like California, Arizona, Nevada, Washington DC Metro, New York, Florida and the Carolina's. It may take 5 to 7 years for these markets to recover to 2005 price levels.
2. 如果你的房屋貸款裏有浮動利率的條款，未來的兩年內你的月付會增加或調整，那最好問一下貸款的機構是不是可以讓你轉換成固定利率貸款。不行的話，打電話給全美房地產貸款投訴中心了解一下你有什麽別的選擇，他們的網址是Http://NationalMortgageComplaintCenter.Com，免費電話是866-714-6466。
2. If you are in a mortgage that has features that call for payment increases or adjustments within the next two years, see if your current lender will allow you to convert to a fixed rate product. If not call the National Mortgage Complaint Center Http://NationalMortgageComplaintCenter.Com to see what your options might be. The Complaint Centers toll free number is 866-714-6466.
3. 小心不要上噱頭廣告的當。一些房地產貸款公司或銀行還有房屋建造商會給你超低的1%的起始利率或100%的貸款。誰會想在全國範圍內未來兩年房地產會跌10-15%或更多的情況下來貸100%的款？換句話說，為什麽要買一個至少是短期內不會保值的東西？
3. Consumers should not fall for some advertising gimmick from a mortgage firm/bank or homebuilder offering a 1% start rate on a mortgage or 100% financing. Why would anyone want 100% financing in a nationwide real estate market that could see values decline 10% to 15%+ in the next two years? Put another way "why purchase something that at least in the short run may not retain its value"?
4. 如果你是一個要進場的房屋買主，房屋消費者中心和全美房地產貸款申訴中心強烈建議你暫且等一下，看看你所在的地區房地產家隻能跌多少，然後再考慮是否購買住房或投資於房產。
4. If you are a potential real estate buyer the Homeowners Consumer Center ( Http://HomeownersConsumerCenter.Com ) & the National Mortgage Complaint Center strongly suggest you wait to see how far real estate values go down in your area before you purchase a home or investment property.
5. 房屋市場價錢可能下跌，但房屋出租市場應該不會受影響。買不出去的房子的屋主可以考慮暫時把房子出租，等到房地產市場開始複蘇之後再賣。這對很多手頭上有房產的人來說可能是最好的選擇。
5. While real estate market prices may decline, the rental market should stay intact. Homeowners unable to sell their existing property should consider renting their property until the real estate market begins to recover. This may be the best option for many homeowners to actually hold onto their property.
對於房屋貸款公司，銀行和房屋建築商，全美房地產貸款投訴中心有話對他們說：做事規矩點。
For Mortgage Lenders, Mortgage Bankers & Homebuilders the National Mortgage Complaint Center Suggests; Clean Up Your Act.
房屋貸款的過程應該簡單，費用的說明應該透明：標準利率，（費用）年均平攤和提前還款的額外懲收費用等等。馬丁先生認為將來的房屋貸款將會是統一標準收費的貸款和產權保險。換句話說就像股票市場上統一標準交易收費的方法也會應用在貸款和產權保險的業務上。“現在這個節骨眼上，已經不再是會不會朝這個方向發展，而是一個誰先想好怎樣來做，並且把房屋貸款和產權保險這兩個行業占領的問題”。
The mortgage process should be simple and transparent with consumer friendly approaches to fees; par interest rates, yield spreads and pre-payment penalties, etc. Martin envisions a future, with flat fee- A-type mortgages, and flat fee title insurance. In other words the same thing that happened to the stock market with respect to flat fee stock trades is about to happen to the mortgage and title industry. "Its no longer a question of if, at this point, it's just a question of who figures it out first and takes over the mortgage/title industries".
The echo generation is now in high school or college (the largest generation of possible homeowners in our nations history). Within four to six years they will become potential home buyers or renters. By this time, we believe the market will have corrected and appreciation will begin again. By then it is the hope of the Homeowners Consumer Center that there will be much more conservative approaches to real estate valuations and deceptive mortgage products/fees will have been outlawed.
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