todaydropisunusual.thestormisbrewing.
expectaddjob5000butlost8000,gap13000,total480000,whichis2.7%...
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NAHBforecaststhatnewhomesalesthisyearwilljump38%to517,000.butsitllabout9%oftotalsales.(avginprevioustwodecadesis16%).
UPSseerecoverahead.(17%to32%year-over-yearearninggrowthfor2010)
AnnTaylorraisedforecast-stockgained18%(Thiscouldbeabenchmark)
China2009loanamountisdoubleofthe2008loanamount.
Giniindexis40,shrinking.Cityincomeisabout2timesofcountrysideincome.[
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背景:FelixZulauf算一牛人,BarronRoundTable的常客。擅長宏觀分析。2009年9月時就基本清空股票,預言股市的崩盤。http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122186337603558457.html?page=sp
“Ican'tunderstandeconomiststalkingaboutnorecessionormildrecession.Thisistheworstfinancialcrisissincethe1930s.It'sdifferentthanthe'30s,butistheworstsincethen,andtheconsequenceswillbevery,verypainfulforvirtuallyeverybodyi...[
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S&P500nowis75%ofaounceofgold,versusapeakofmorethanfivetimesthevalueofgoldin2000.avg:1.6timesBearmarketbounce;thelastonegenerated24%gain(Nov20toJan6)[
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EconomistswatchingarangeofindicatorsinhopesofspottingthebottomoftheeconomyWhenwillthiswretchedeconomybottomout?Therecessionisalreadyinits15thmonth,makingitlongerthanallbuttwodownturnssinceWorldWarII.Fornow,everythingseemstobegettingworse:TheDowisinfreefall,jobsarevanishingeveryday,andoneineightAmericanhomeownersisinforeclosureorbehindonpayments.Buttheeconomyalwaysrecovers.Itrunsincycles,andeconomi...[
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2000年,RatioofHousePricestoRents:100
Now:122
還要跌22%房價才合理?
2000年MedianHousePriceDividedbyMedianfamilyIncome:2.8
Now:3.2
跌14%房價才合理?
綜合下來:18%。
我們這裏(南加)現在是55萬左右(SingeFamilyHouse),嗯45萬的確覺得還比較正常。這個時候還是沒法入場。
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結論:
-美元貶值,通脹不可避免-房市還得有個數年,但需求在哪裏,遲早會恢複
-金融市場會繼續動蕩一段時間,但大恐慌之類的擔心就不必了
-經濟衰退無可避免-股票市場總的來說比較合理,很多甚至已經低估
個人的感覺是可以繼續持續投資在股市,關鍵是要穩,保守些不會錯,選大型的穩定沒有問題的績優股。持續投資,逢低買入,長期持有,千萬別投機。
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量子基金創始人之一、環球旅行投資家吉姆·索羅斯言簡意賅的投資哲理,都是感從心來、實踐出真知。1.勤奮。“我並不覺得自己聰明,但我確實非常、非常、非常勤奮地工作。如果你能非常努力地工作,也很熱愛自己的工作,就有成功的可能”。這一點,索羅斯也加以證實,在接受記者采訪時,索羅斯說,“索羅斯是傑出的分析師,而且特別勤勞,一個人做六個人的工作[
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Whentosellafastgrower?•Endotherapidgrowth
•Samestoresalesaredown3percentinthelastquarter
•Newstoreresultsaredisappointing
•Twotopexecutivesandseveralkeyemployeesleavetojoinrivalfirm
•Thecompanyrecentlyreturnedfroma“dogandpony”show,tellinganextremelypositivestoreytoinstitutionalinvestorsintwelvecitiesintwoweeks
•Thestockissellingatap/eo...[
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78%wasoversold,ittook15monthforNasdaqtorecover40%(1139at09/30/2002->2000at12/29/2003),gotanidea?
轉自http://www.schwabinsights.com/2008_02/strategy.html
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