李李財的財經博客
希望和大家交流投資。
估計很多人都會有同樣的疑問。出差在外清淨的很終於調查試用了一些。
用諸如Discounted Cash Flow等作關鍵字查詢的結果是有些Online的工具但感覺不夠全麵。然後找到了這個Rule #1的工具 - 可下載，需要手工查詢輸入數據，但計算很方便。考慮的數據也很全麵：
EPS Growth Rate
Cash Flow Growth Rate
Equity Growth Rate
Sales Growth Rate
ROIC
有關Phil Town的Rule#1理論，先簡要介紹一下。據說此君過去是導遊船上的漁夫，因為一次從懸崖邊上把一幫投資家遊客的命救回來，投資家就傳授了一些巴菲特派的投資理論給他。學成後從朋友那裏借1000元起家，據說是5年內成了1 million.此君從此揚名立萬。
他的Rule #1理論道理是顯而易見，就是說絕對不能從投資中虧錢。你說那怎麽可能？ 別忙，他有兩條依據：
1）要有一套完整的估值模型能夠準確的估計出公司的真正價值。
2）等待買入的時機 - 隻有在公司的股票價值低於其內在價值的50%的時候才出手。 漲回到或高於實際價值的時候就賣掉，尋找別的機會。
其他的還有公司要有護城河，別的公司不容易進入，等等。
關於1），他的網站提供了一個Offline的工具。（http://www.philtown.com/）。今天下載用MCO （Moody's)演算了一下，（Disclose: 本人持有MCO數月），現在的Margin Of Safety大概有40%（以Future EPS Growth Rate 16%, Future PE 24代入計算的），現在已經不符合Rule #1的基準但比較接近。
下麵的計劃就是把他的這個Formula改裝成自用軟件，和money.msn.com做成實時鏈接，並自動生成Watch List。 理論很容易懂，剩下的就是如何在心裏上克服對市場輿論的抵抗和建成更有效的工具。現在的感覺是理論讀過了，工具還不完善。這個下載的工具計算一個股票的話大概要45分鍾。還是比較費時。(做成工具的想法還是受老周帖子的啟發，Watch List還是要一定的自動化，感謝大家的在投資理財的POST，很多時候挺有啟發）
I worked with Moody's for nearly 15 years and know their franchise well. I was a rating agency relationship manager with a fortune 50 U.S. Company and I issued corporate debt around the world. I have recently taken a long position in this stock and feel they are one of the best plays in the beaten down U.S. financial arena. Here are some of the reasons I went "long" recently.
1)Moody's is one of two companies that dominate the worldwide debt ratings business (the other is S&P) and I don't see that chaninging a bit. Fitch is an also ran. Being a dominate player, they can literally print money over the long term. Look at their profit margins over the last 10 years. They average 25-30 % after tax profits margins. So for every $1 billion in revenues, they make $250 million in net after tax profits. Very very few companies in the World can do that.
2) They have strong international growth and are not just linked to the U.S. debt markets. They are growing 20-25% outside the U.S. over the last 5 years.
3) They have historically been quick to cut staff when the market hiccups and debt issuance slows. Recently they dropped 7% of their U.S. staff to reflect the shutdown of the sub-prime mortgage business.
4) They have virtually always won major lawsuits when their ratings have been questioned. I expect the same this time around.
5) They are in a business that others will have a hard time entering. If you are a major U.S. corporation, you still need their ratings. Moody's is the gold standard for debt ratings. They are even more important than S&P. Warren Buffet can enter the municipal insurance business because he knows that buiness, so the MBIA's of the world need to be fearful. But Buffect will not compete against Moody's as he is owns over 18% of this Company already or 48 million shares. At least that was his holdings as of 9/30/2007. If anything, smart Buffet would be buying more shares of MCO now as this is the type of strong company that he loves for the long term.
I do not know how low MCO may go, but if you are a long term investor, this is a great time to be buying MCO. Because of the huge profit margin potential from this business over time and the potential for continued strong worldwide revenue growth, this stock will over time command a P/E multiple higher than the market and much higher than the average financial stock. The prospects for the worldwide growth of capitalism look great to me and the debt ratings business will follow accordingly. While you may not like the ratings they assigned to some sub-prime securities, do not bet against these guys. Write down today's closing price for MCO and come back in two years. My bet is you will be blown away.