李李財的財經博客
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正文
結論：
- 美元貶值，通脹不可避免 - 房市還得有個數年，但需求在哪裏，遲早會恢複
- 金融市場會繼續動蕩一段時間， 但大恐慌之類的擔心就不必了
- 經濟衰退無可避免- 股票市場總的來說比較合理，很多甚至已經低估
個人的感覺是可以繼續持續投資在股市，關鍵是要穩，保守些不會錯，選大型的穩定沒有問題的績優股。 持續投資，逢低買入，長期持有,千萬別投機。
Q&A 當前形勢下幹什麽最降低風險？ （答別來投資理財，好好學學專業知識！）QUICK: That was, again, what would be the best investment to hedge against the upcoming debt crisis?
Buffet: The best thing you\'re going to have is develop your own talent. I mean, if you\'re the best doctor in town, if you\'re the best teacher in town, if you\'re, you know, the best salesman in town, you\'ll do well no matter what the currency does.
問現在有什麽便宜貨麽？ （答基本麵上來說很多企業都很不錯，沒必要心驚膽寒）
QUICK: All right. So let\'s talk about that. Are there bargains out there right now?
BUFFETT: Well, there are certainly things that are a lot cheaper than they were a few years ago, and the businesses are better. Now, that doesn\'t mean they\'re doing better today, but they are fundamentally worth more money than they were a couple of years ago, and people are just looking at the glass being half empty rather than half full now.
問這次大恐慌會不會重來？（不會不會。。。）
QUICK: Warren, that question was, again, what are the odds that we could have a bank failure similar to what we saw in 1929?
WARREN BUFFETT (Berkshire Hathaway CEO): Well, that\'s quite unlikely, partly because of the FDIC. People--you had failures in the Great Depression where the failure of Bank A caused the failure of Bank B. When they saw a line at Bank A, everybody lined up at Bank B and then they lined up at Bank C. And the FDIC was one of the great ideas of the Depression.
問會不會有人不貝爾斯登的後塵？（這篇采訪是在雷曼倒之前做的，回答可見老巴的高瞻遠矚）
QUICK: Could there be another Bear Stearns this time around, though?
BUFFETT: Sure. People--and I\'ve said that you only find out who\'s been swimming naked when the tide goes out.
多久房市會正常？ （大約在冬季 - 幾年後吧）
But the good thing about it is we have--we have household formation growth in this country. We\'re not a stagnant economy and we will work our way out of it, but it took--with the farm crisis here in the early \'80s, it took years to work our way out of it.
問現在是不是買股票的時機？ （答隻要你是長期投資者，買個好企業不會錯，買到底不容易， 換成現金更沒必要
BUFFETT: No. The home builders still have plenty of problems and that doesn\'t mean--you know, the time to buy the stocks is not necessarily when they\'ve already--their business has already turned up.QUICK: Sure.
BUFFETT: I don\'t look--I don\'t try to pick turns in any kind of an industry in terms of buying stocks. I just like to buy them when I think they\'re cheap relative to their long-term earning power and I don\'t happen to have that conviction about home builders now, but it very well may be the case. It\'s just I don\'t have the conviction
BUFFETT: Well, I think their economy is going to do fine. Who knows whether it gets overheated or the inflation picks up or something, but it\'s like the United States. It really isn\'t important what happens in the next six months or a year. It\'s what\'s going to happen over the next 10 years. We\'re going to do well. The truth is, the Chinese will do better, because they\'re starting from a lower base, but they have learned a tremendous amount about business in the last 20 years, and about how to unleash the human potential, and that\'s something that our country learned earlier. And--but they\'re picking it up very, very, very fast.
- 美元貶值，通脹不可避免 - 房市還得有個數年，但需求在哪裏，遲早會恢複
- 金融市場會繼續動蕩一段時間， 但大恐慌之類的擔心就不必了
- 經濟衰退無可避免- 股票市場總的來說比較合理，很多甚至已經低估
個人的感覺是可以繼續持續投資在股市，關鍵是要穩，保守些不會錯，選大型的穩定沒有問題的績優股。 持續投資，逢低買入，長期持有,千萬別投機。
Q&A 當前形勢下幹什麽最降低風險？ （答別來投資理財，好好學學專業知識！）QUICK: That was, again, what would be the best investment to hedge against the upcoming debt crisis?
Buffet: The best thing you\'re going to have is develop your own talent. I mean, if you\'re the best doctor in town, if you\'re the best teacher in town, if you\'re, you know, the best salesman in town, you\'ll do well no matter what the currency does.
問現在有什麽便宜貨麽？ （答基本麵上來說很多企業都很不錯，沒必要心驚膽寒）
QUICK: All right. So let\'s talk about that. Are there bargains out there right now?
BUFFETT: Well, there are certainly things that are a lot cheaper than they were a few years ago, and the businesses are better. Now, that doesn\'t mean they\'re doing better today, but they are fundamentally worth more money than they were a couple of years ago, and people are just looking at the glass being half empty rather than half full now.
問這次大恐慌會不會重來？（不會不會。。。）
QUICK: Warren, that question was, again, what are the odds that we could have a bank failure similar to what we saw in 1929?
WARREN BUFFETT (Berkshire Hathaway CEO): Well, that\'s quite unlikely, partly because of the FDIC. People--you had failures in the Great Depression where the failure of Bank A caused the failure of Bank B. When they saw a line at Bank A, everybody lined up at Bank B and then they lined up at Bank C. And the FDIC was one of the great ideas of the Depression.
問會不會有人不貝爾斯登的後塵？（這篇采訪是在雷曼倒之前做的，回答可見老巴的高瞻遠矚）
QUICK: Could there be another Bear Stearns this time around, though?
BUFFETT: Sure. People--and I\'ve said that you only find out who\'s been swimming naked when the tide goes out.
多久房市會正常？ （大約在冬季 - 幾年後吧）
But the good thing about it is we have--we have household formation growth in this country. We\'re not a stagnant economy and we will work our way out of it, but it took--with the farm crisis here in the early \'80s, it took years to work our way out of it.
問現在是不是買股票的時機？ （答隻要你是長期投資者，買個好企業不會錯，買到底不容易， 換成現金更沒必要
BUFFETT: No. The home builders still have plenty of problems and that doesn\'t mean--you know, the time to buy the stocks is not necessarily when they\'ve already--their business has already turned up.QUICK: Sure.
BUFFETT: I don\'t look--I don\'t try to pick turns in any kind of an industry in terms of buying stocks. I just like to buy them when I think they\'re cheap relative to their long-term earning power and I don\'t happen to have that conviction about home builders now, but it very well may be the case. It\'s just I don\'t have the conviction
BUFFETT: Well, I think their economy is going to do fine. Who knows whether it gets overheated or the inflation picks up or something, but it\'s like the United States. It really isn\'t important what happens in the next six months or a year. It\'s what\'s going to happen over the next 10 years. We\'re going to do well. The truth is, the Chinese will do better, because they\'re starting from a lower base, but they have learned a tremendous amount about business in the last 20 years, and about how to unleash the human potential, and that\'s something that our country learned earlier. And--but they\'re picking it up very, very, very fast.
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