Zulauf: 宏觀分析的大牛，對股市何時到底，衰退何時結束的看法

背景：Felix Zulauf算一牛人，Barron Round Table的常客。擅長宏觀分析。 2009年9月時就基本清空股票，預言股市的崩盤。 http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122186337603558457.html?page=sp

“I can't understand economists talking about no recession or mild recession. This is the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. It's different than the '30s, but is the worst since then, and the consequences will be very, very painful for virtually everybody in our economies” 【08年9月就預言這麽準的不多】

What do you see ahead for the U.S. economy and elsewhere?  The U.S. economy goes flat for several years, and from time to time there probably will be major fiscal programs, each one bigger than the previous one, to help the economy. 【應該是吧，至少不是1，2年的Flat】

Global financial-sector debt has gone up fivefold in the last 25 years relative to GDP. So what you now see is a reversal back to the mean. That means that the financial sector as a profit generator, as an employer and as a provider of services will shrink over many years -- back to a level that is more normal than in recent years. 【金融從業人員要有多年的不振了】

Do you see any industries that look promising at the macro level?  It could again be infrastructure-related assets or commodity-related assets that will perform very well.

I'm not interested in any longs in equities. If you are an optimist by nature and if you want to be long, the one area that you should look at is daily necessities, notably consumer staples. Companies like Procter & Gamble [ticker: PG], General Mills [GIS] and maybe Johnson & Johnson [JNJ]. Those are the defensive names. But I have absolutely no interest in investing on the long side in anything that is cyclical in nature, because this cycle could last longer on the downside and go deeper than most investors assume. 【嚴冬漫漫。。。】

he prefers gold and government bonds -- but further out, sees untapped growth potential in emerging-markets. 【對黃金的預計也是有先見之明，對中國仍看好】

03/09/2009 Barron Follow-Up Column

Believe S&P 5000 will bottom in 2011 in the 400s.

But first, he asserts, stocks are poised for a bear-market bounce from a low this month. It could last 2-4 months, and boost the S&P 25% to 40% to roughly 900. 【今天就Bounce了，到不到900拭目以待】

After the rally, the market could be cut in half.  【2-4個月後大熊再臨，450點？】

The private sector has to get rid of 8 trillion of debt, could take 4-5 years. Only after that the feds can start their deleveraging.  The best case  I can see is a 10-year period of economic stagnation. 【4-5年差不多，現在是第2年。日本花了不止10年呢】

Secular bear markets usually last 10 to 15 years, and this one started in 2000. The market has a chance to make an ultimate low within the next 2 years. If it does so at 90% of book, that low would be in the 400s.  【2年之內到底，400多算底】

http://www.zuam.ch/ 【定期更新他的Interview之類的】