但是,大陸在這場博弈中也遠非毫發無損。一個眾所周知的例子就是華為技術公司(Huawei Technologies Co.)。貴為大陸科技翹楚的華為公司,曾經躋身國際5G無線通信頂級供應商之列,世界智能手機供貨排行榜上坐二望一。但貿易戰火延燒至科技領域,華為公司失去了很可能獲得的、甚至已經獲得的5G無線通信設備訂單,華為的智能手機生產因芯片斷供而坍塌,進而被分拆出售(下圖 Global Times)。由此,兩年前手持最多5G無線通信設備訂單,馳騁國際5G無線通信市場的華為公司,今天隻能在三家國際5G無線通信供應商中敬排末位。曾經離世界第一大智能手機供貨商位置近在咫尺的華為,今年(2021年) 能排在第六位就算不錯了,且還主要依靠大陸本土市場。美國政府實施的製裁和出口限製已經威脅到華為公司,和另一家大陸科技公司中芯國際(Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.) 等領先科技公司的生存能力。
江蘇省官方黨校的兩位研究人員在一篇文章中寫道:“如果美國繼續加大技術封鎖,中國走向全球產業鏈高端的現代化進程無疑將受到影響。”到目前為止,美國行動的影響是加速北京推動技術自給自足。上個月,中國共產黨發表了一份聲明,稱增強“戰略科技實力”是最重要的經濟任務,以此為標誌,這一問題迅速上升到了中共的議事日程。世界真的要分為兩大陣營,我們真的會有兩套不同的技術標準嗎?(下圖 Google Images)脫鉤無疑會增加商品及服務成本,意味著消費者支出增加,生活水平的降低。
Boehm, E. (2021). Trump Promised a 'Good and Easy To Win' Trade War, Then Lost It. reason. 鏈接 https://reason.com/2021/01/19/trump-promised-a-good-and-easy-to-win-trade-war-then-lost-it/
Bradsher, K. (2021). 中國經濟逆勢復甦,2020年GDP增長2.3%. 紐約時報中文網. 鏈接 https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20210118/china-economy-gdp/zh-hant/
Bloomberg News. (2021). How China Won Trump’s Trade War and Got Americans to Foot the Bill. Bloomberg Businessweek. 鏈接 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-11/how-china-won-trump-s-good-and-easy-to-win-trade-war
Chatzky, A. (2019). The Truth about Tarrifs. Council on Foreign Relations. 鏈接 https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/truth-about-tariffs?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI-rTW8q2y7gIVhs3ICh1rjgCDEAAYASAAEgK_JvD_BwE
Culpan, T. (2018). Tech Superiority Won't Help the US Win a Trade War. IndustryWeek. 鏈接 https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/22025266/tech-superiority-wont-help-the-us-win-a-trade-war
Disis, J. (2020). Trump promised to win the trade war with China. He failed. CNN BUSINESS. 鏈接 https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/24/economy/us-china-trade-war-intl-hnk/index.html
Gros, D. (2019). The Real Cost of Trump’s Trade Wars. Project Syndicate. 鏈接 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-china-trade-war-trump-tariffs-by-daniel-gros-2019-08?utm_term=&utm_campaign=&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=1220154768&hsa_cam=11127190758&hsa_grp=113732360341&hsa_ad=493957776862&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=aud-963711451604%3Adsa-1148007232731&hsa_kw=&hsa_mt=b&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1Nj1-aGy7gIVwdzICh3q9QHkEAMYAiAAEgIly_D_BwE&barrier=accesspaylog
Hass, R. & Denmark, A. (2020). More pain than gain: How the US-China trde war hurt America? Brookings. 鏈接 https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/07/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/
Robinson, S. & Thierfelder, K. (2019). Who's Winning the US-China Trade War? It’s Not the United States or China. Peterson Institue for International Economics. 鏈接 https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/whos-winning-us-china-trade-war-its-not-united-states-or?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1Nj1-aGy7gIVwdzICh3q9QHkEAMYASAAEgK82_D_BwE
Scissors, D. (2019). Sharpening the US-China trade debate. AEI. 鏈接 https://www.aei.org/economics/international-economics/sharpening-the-us-china-trade-debate/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1Nj1-aGy7gIVwdzICh3q9QHkEAAYASAAEgKI0vD_BwE
Singh, A. (2019). Who will win the US-China Trade War? The RSA. 鏈接 https://www.thersa.org/blog/2019/05/us-china?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI-rTW8q2y7gIVhs3ICh1rjgCDEAAYAiAAEgK3RPD_BwE
Sumner, S. (2021). China won the trade war. The Library of Economics and Liberty. 鏈接 https://www.econlib.org/china-won-the-trade-war/
United Nation. (2021). INVESTMENT TRENDS MONITOR. UNCTAD. 鏈接 https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/diaeiainf2021d1_en.pdf
Wiki. (2021). China–United States trade war. 鏈接 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war
但是,大陸在這場博弈中也遠非毫發無損。一個眾所周知的例子就是華為技術公司(Huawei Technologies Co.)。貴為大陸科技翹楚的華為公司,曾經躋身國際5G無線通信頂級供應商之列,世界智能手機供貨排行榜上坐二望一。但貿易戰火延燒至科技領域,華為公司失去了很可能獲得的、甚至已經獲得的5G無線通信設備訂單,華為的智能手機生產因芯片斷供而坍塌,進而被分拆出售(下圖 Global Times)。由此,兩年前手持最多5G無線通信設備訂單,馳騁國際5G無線通信市場的華為公司,今天隻能在三家國際5G無線通信供應商中敬排末位。曾經離世界第一大智能手機供貨商位置近在咫尺的華為,今年(2021年) 能排在第六位就算不錯了,且還主要依靠大陸本土市場。美國政府實施的製裁和出口限製已經威脅到華為公司,和另一家大陸科技公司中芯國際(Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.) 等領先科技公司的生存能力。
江蘇省官方黨校的兩位研究人員在一篇文章中寫道:“如果美國繼續加大技術封鎖,中國走向全球產業鏈高端的現代化進程無疑將受到影響。”到目前為止,美國行動的影響是加速北京推動技術自給自足。上個月,中國共產黨發表了一份聲明,稱增強“戰略科技實力”是最重要的經濟任務,以此為標誌,這一問題迅速上升到了中共的議事日程。世界真的要分為兩大陣營,我們真的會有兩套不同的技術標準嗎?(下圖 Google Images)脫鉤無疑會增加商品及服務成本,意味著消費者支出增加,生活水平的降低。
Boehm, E. (2021). Trump Promised a 'Good and Easy To Win' Trade War, Then Lost It. reason. 鏈接 https://reason.com/2021/01/19/trump-promised-a-good-and-easy-to-win-trade-war-then-lost-it/
Bradsher, K. (2021). 中國經濟逆勢復甦,2020年GDP增長2.3%. 紐約時報中文網. 鏈接 https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20210118/china-economy-gdp/zh-hant/
Bloomberg News. (2021). How China Won Trump’s Trade War and Got Americans to Foot the Bill. Bloomberg Businessweek. 鏈接 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-11/how-china-won-trump-s-good-and-easy-to-win-trade-war
Chatzky, A. (2019). The Truth about Tarrifs. Council on Foreign Relations. 鏈接 https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/truth-about-tariffs?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI-rTW8q2y7gIVhs3ICh1rjgCDEAAYASAAEgK_JvD_BwE
Culpan, T. (2018). Tech Superiority Won't Help the US Win a Trade War. IndustryWeek. 鏈接 https://www.industryweek.com/technology-and-iiot/article/22025266/tech-superiority-wont-help-the-us-win-a-trade-war
Disis, J. (2020). Trump promised to win the trade war with China. He failed. CNN BUSINESS. 鏈接 https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/24/economy/us-china-trade-war-intl-hnk/index.html
Gros, D. (2019). The Real Cost of Trump’s Trade Wars. Project Syndicate. 鏈接 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-china-trade-war-trump-tariffs-by-daniel-gros-2019-08?utm_term=&utm_campaign=&utm_source=adwords&utm_medium=ppc&hsa_acc=1220154768&hsa_cam=11127190758&hsa_grp=113732360341&hsa_ad=493957776862&hsa_src=g&hsa_tgt=aud-963711451604%3Adsa-1148007232731&hsa_kw=&hsa_mt=b&hsa_net=adwords&hsa_ver=3&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1Nj1-aGy7gIVwdzICh3q9QHkEAMYAiAAEgIly_D_BwE&barrier=accesspaylog
Hass, R. & Denmark, A. (2020). More pain than gain: How the US-China trde war hurt America? Brookings. 鏈接 https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/07/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/
Robinson, S. & Thierfelder, K. (2019). Who's Winning the US-China Trade War? It’s Not the United States or China. Peterson Institue for International Economics. 鏈接 https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/whos-winning-us-china-trade-war-its-not-united-states-or?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1Nj1-aGy7gIVwdzICh3q9QHkEAMYASAAEgK82_D_BwE
Scissors, D. (2019). Sharpening the US-China trade debate. AEI. 鏈接 https://www.aei.org/economics/international-economics/sharpening-the-us-china-trade-debate/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI1Nj1-aGy7gIVwdzICh3q9QHkEAAYASAAEgKI0vD_BwE
Singh, A. (2019). Who will win the US-China Trade War? The RSA. 鏈接 https://www.thersa.org/blog/2019/05/us-china?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI-rTW8q2y7gIVhs3ICh1rjgCDEAAYAiAAEgK3RPD_BwE
Sumner, S. (2021). China won the trade war. The Library of Economics and Liberty. 鏈接 https://www.econlib.org/china-won-the-trade-war/
United Nation. (2021). INVESTMENT TRENDS MONITOR. UNCTAD. 鏈接 https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/diaeiainf2021d1_en.pdf
Wiki. (2021). China–United States trade war. 鏈接 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war