I asked ChatGpt how long took to reach the 1985 Plaza Accord between Japan and USA, it took over 6 months. Then I asked if the tarrif agreement would take less time? here is the chatgpt answer:
Probably not — a Trump-era tariff agreement with Japan would likely take longer than the 1985 Plaza Accord.
Let’s break down why:
1. The Plaza Accord wasn’t a tariff deal
It was a currency realignment pact — a coordinated FX intervention. No tariffs, no quotas, no industrial policies — just agreement to devalue the dollar.
That’s much simpler than a modern trade deal which touches on:
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Automotive exports/imports
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Semiconductor supply chains
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Agricultural access
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Security alignment (especially with China looming)
? 2. Trump’s style is bilateral, zero-sum, and tactical
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Trump tends to use tariffs as leverage rather than policy tools.
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Negotiations under him can be abrupt, unpredictable, and often public.
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Example: USMCA (NAFTA replacement) took nearly 2 years to finalize.
If a Japan deal involved auto tariffs or semiconductor policies, expect multiple rounds of negotiations, each punctuated by public posturing or threats.
3. Japan plays long ball
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Japan’s bureaucracy (especially METI and MOFA) likes studied, cautious negotiation.
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They will resist anything that looks like they’re being pushed around.
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They also want to preserve the post-TPP architecture, which the U.S. walked away from.
4. Current global context is more complex
Unlike the '80s:
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The global supply chain is deeply integrated, especially in tech.
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Japan is caught between the U.S. and China — it can’t afford rash alignment.
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Geopolitics (Taiwan, semiconductors, military bases) are all on the table.
? Realistic Estimate?
A Trump-Japan tariff agreement in 2025 could take:
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6 to 18 months if limited in scope
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2+ years if it involves industrial policy, tech, and defense coordination
Especially if it becomes part of a broader “Trump Trade 2.0” global strategy.
