1985 Plaza Accord

I asked ChatGpt how long took to reach the 1985 Plaza Accord between Japan and USA, it took over 6 months.  Then I asked if the tarrif agreement would take less time?  here is the chatgpt answer:

Probably not — a Trump-era tariff agreement with Japan would likely take longer than the 1985 Plaza Accord.

Let’s break down why:

---

1. The Plaza Accord wasn’t a tariff deal

It was a currency realignment pact — a coordinated FX intervention. No tariffs, no quotas, no industrial policies — just agreement to devalue the dollar.

That’s much simpler than a modern trade deal which touches on:

• Automotive exports/imports

• Semiconductor supply chains

• Agricultural access

• Security alignment (especially with China looming)

---

? 2. Trump’s style is bilateral, zero-sum, and tactical

• Trump tends to use tariffs as leverage rather than policy tools.

• Negotiations under him can be abrupt, unpredictable, and often public.

• Example: USMCA (NAFTA replacement) took nearly 2 years to finalize.

If a Japan deal involved auto tariffs or semiconductor policies, expect multiple rounds of negotiations, each punctuated by public posturing or threats.

---

3. Japan plays long ball

• Japan’s bureaucracy (especially METI and MOFA) likes studied, cautious negotiation.

• They will resist anything that looks like they’re being pushed around.

• They also want to preserve the post-TPP architecture, which the U.S. walked away from.

---

4. Current global context is more complex

Unlike the '80s:

• The global supply chain is deeply integrated, especially in tech.

• Japan is caught between the U.S. and China — it can’t afford rash alignment.

• Geopolitics (Taiwan, semiconductors, military bases) are all on the table.

---

? Realistic Estimate?

A Trump-Japan tariff agreement in 2025 could take:

• 6 to 18 months if limited in scope

• 2+ years if it involves industrial policy, tech, and defense coordination

Especially if it becomes part of a broader “Trump Trade 2.0” global strategy.