Latest estimate: -1.8 percent — March 26, 2025
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -1.8 percent on March 26, unchanged from March 18 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 9.1 percent to 8.8 percent. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is 0.2 percent.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
