Here, I dont want to debate Waymo vs Tesla as I have found you cant chage people's view once that view is formed. I used to lead sales in a SP500 company, for me, I just can't see how Waymo can scale its solution at global scale without incurring huge cost (Waymo revenue is $50M at the cost of $B in 2024, while Telsa FSD revenue is already $350M this quarter). But as I said, the debate on this is pretty pointless as no one can convince the other camp. Not to mention in Robotics field, no single company has the potential to compete with Optimus at this time. Maybe we will see a new company, but right now, I have not seen one
The biggest risk for Tesla has always been the timing. Up until the most recent earning report, people (including myself) have been worrying about Tesla's margin, EV sales, and timeline of robotaxi in such a way that it may take until 2028 or beyond to improve any of these. For investors, that is a long time to park your money before you see reward
But the most recent business update has fundamentally changed some of these prior assumptions. On the margin front, Tesla has improved margin dramatically this Q and forecast further improvement for next quarter. It also projects 20%-30% increase in EV sales, plus low cost model availability in H1 2025, this addressed many of investor's concern about Tesla's near term performance.
Finally, they have provided a more concrete RoboTaxi rollout timeline with limited availability in 2026
Of course, there is always a risk that they fail to execute on these promises. I think we will just have to monitor it closely and adjust our portfolio accordingly. At this time, the momentum is very very strong.
Last but not least, I just trust Elon Musk. I think he is a visionary of our time and I want to invest in what he is doing
