Positive Carry and Some Explanations

來源: David_S_Meng 2020-11-20 06:19:15 [] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀: 次 (3778 bytes)

Sorry, I did not make some things clear in my post yesterday.  Our refi took about three months. It was slow.  And I got denied by two other lenders, because my wife and I have 15 properties with sizable loans.  The third loan officer kindly was willing to do it.  The time that I personally spent on it was only a few hours.  But the entire process took about three months.

Thank you for reading my post.  I saw quite some feedback.  I share a method that I myself am using and it is lucrative, hoping that some other people may also benefit from it. 

If you have good methods, please share.  I am very willing to learn.  However, on this platform, name-calling and personal attacks are inappropriate.  We should have the decency to share and discuss with dignity and respect.

Regarding our investment returns:

[1]. In 2011, my wife and I had a total of about $800,000.  It was mostly in 401k and our primary residence, not investable.  Our investable fund in 2011 was about $150,000.

[2]. In my area, the housing value appreciation from 2011-2019 has been about 3-4% annually.  It is slow.  If our houses had appreciated rapidly like in CA or Seattle, we estimate that we would have had a few million dollars more in total wealth.  For investors in CA and other booming areas, congratulations to you.  But those high appreciation rates cannot be reproduced in many other places in the US.  However, our area of 3-4% is similar to the historic US housing appreciation in the long-term.  Therefore, it is more reproducible by ordinary people.  Furthermore, our 3-4% appreciation, similar to the historic US average, indicates that my neighborhood is unlikely to crash in the near future.

[3]. I am not handy and cannot do repairs, and do not have much time. My wife and I have full time jobs and three kids. I spend only a few hours per week on investing.  Other investors who are handy and have more talents and more time can buy broken houses and then renovate and repair them.  Their rate of return will be higher.  My investment is limited by my willinness to spend only a few hours per week.

[4]. We sent three kids to college with no student loans. We send money to parents and relatives.  We give to church.  So, we did not use all the bullets in investing. Otherwise, our wealth would be a little more.

[5]. The positive carry method that I posted yesterday basically means that you borrow money from the bank at a low interest rate, then you give it to SP 500, and it pays you a 10% return.  You pocket the difference as your positive carry.  Passive.  Very little time and effort.  It works.  The key is (1) dollar cost averaging, and (2) long term. 

[6]. There are safeguards such as “Tell me where I am going to die so that I will never go there.” And “Protect the down side, and the up side will take care of itself.”  The safeguards and minimizing the risks are described in my book.

By David Meng, author of book “$5 Million in 8 Years: Real Estate Investing on the Side.”

 

所有跟帖: 

(1) dollar cost averaging, and (2) long term are not new. :-) -喜喜哈哈- 給 喜喜哈哈 發送悄悄話 (935 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 09:43:19

Yes you are right. I still remember the day when I was about to -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (389 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:16:09

I told myself: 餓死膽小的,撐死膽大的。:) -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:17:36

When I clicked, I had to remind myself 清華北大,不如膽大 :) -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:18:50

你這說的不是明擺著是賭贏的而不是DCA做贏的。一下投半米的DCA,你投多少次track of DCA?這實在不是一般人可以做的 -Progressive- 給 Progressive 發送悄悄話 (107 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 13:19:48

The plan is, 2020, cashout refi, invest in SP500, then -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (566 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 13:56:18

problem with the plan is, when housing market crash and stock pr -biglakes- 給 biglakes 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 16:19:01

Do you even know what is called DCA? :-) -喜喜哈哈- 給 喜喜哈哈 發送悄悄話 (611 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 14:50:26

Please see my response: -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (2836 bytes) () 11/21/2020 postreply 07:16:35

My method is not the best. -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:05:40

If you have a better method, please share. -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:06:20

We should learn from each other, 共同致富。 -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:08:13

海外華人需要團結,團結才有力量。 -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:19:35

海外華人要多學習討論多做投資理財 -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:20:05

打下經濟基礎,才有發言權 -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:20:53

Money talks -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:21:12

Also, knowing that long-term it returns 10% helped me. -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:23:16

My plan is to hold for decades, so it's relatively safer. -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 10:27:25

We have > $100k cash flow, providing some safety too. -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 11:10:04

The key is long-term, dollar cost averaging, passive, patience. -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 11:27:18

For short-term investors, this positive carry is not suitable. -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 11:28:43

Courage is needed in investing. If you read articles by老朽兄: -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (559 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 14:30:44

常人一般長期投資也不會一下五十萬買S&P的。。 -喜喜哈哈- 給 喜喜哈哈 發送悄悄話 (227 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 14:52:43

你的問題還是隻看到贏麵 沒有意識到高風險的存在。good luck。 -Progressive- 給 Progressive 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/20/2020 postreply 20:25:35

Please see my response: -David_S_Meng- 給 David_S_Meng 發送悄悄話 (1026 bytes) () 11/21/2020 postreply 07:26:35

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