再談危險與安全：美國 vs. 加拿大
Revisiting Danger and Safety: United States vs. Canada
上周我通過一些數據和圖表談了一下“生活在美國的危險與安全”（https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/80301/202312/10724.html），主要集中於美國最近三、四十年的縱向比較，以及中產華人遭遇危險的因素極其概率。文中認為，不同於美國的的平均值，華人遭遇槍擊可能性比較小，主要危險因素是車禍。社交媒體、如微信等的誇張信息，容易使人產生非理性的焦慮。
Last week, I discussed " Safety and Danger in Life in the USA" through data and charts (https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/80301/202312/10724.html), mainly focusing on a longitudinal comparison of the United States over the past three to four decades and the factors and probabilities of dangers faced by middle-class Chinese. The article argued that, contrary to the U.S. average, the likelihood of gun violence for Chinese individuals is relatively low, with the primary danger being traffic accidents. The exaggeration of information on social media platforms like WeChat tends to induce irrational anxiety.
然而有網友指出，美國較其他國家多很多的槍擊案。不管怎樣，畢竟是讓人緊張的。比較而言，加拿大是一個更好的地方。恰好，我也願意拿美國與其他發達國家比較一下。歐洲的統計方式跟美國的不太契合，而加拿大的統計可以找出一些圖表跟美國高度對應。那就拿它做參照物吧，何況他是美國的小弟鄰居，而且在地球村裏頭口碑很好。
However, some netizens pointed out that the United States has significantly more gun-related incidents than other countries, causing understandable concern. In comparison, Canada is considered a better place. Coincidentally, I am willing to compare the United States with other developed countries. European statistics do not align well with those of the United States, but Canada's statistics offer charts that closely correspond to those of the United States. Let's use Canada as a reference, considering it is a neighbor to the U.S. with a good reputation in the global village.
我有親戚和朋友在加拿大，我也去過加拿大，對它比較了解。沒有一個人說加拿大不好。那裏地大物博、民風平和、風景優美、生活水平高。咱們現在客觀來看一下、跟美國比較一下。還是使用上次我們分析美國時提出的跟個人的人身安全最為相關的前三位因素：藥物過服、車禍和謀殺。
Having relatives and friends in Canada and having visited the country, I have a good understanding of it. Not a single person has anything negative to say about Canada. The country boasts vast land, a harmonious society, beautiful scenery, and a high standard of living. Now, let's objectively compare it with the United States, using the three factors most relevant to personal safety that we highlighted in our previous analysis of the U.S.: drug overdose, traffic accidents, and murder.
2013年以前，加拿大的吸毒情況和致死率與歐洲發達如瑞典、英格蘭類似，處於相對的低水平。美國那時已經“一枝獨秀”，是這些國家的兩、三倍。從10年前開始，芬太尼登陸美國，致死率便火箭式上升（參見https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/80301/202311/17508.html）顯然，作為美國的北方鄰居，加拿大是被明顯波及的。在2022年，美國的藥物過服致死率高達每十萬人中39人；加拿大為20人。加拿大的數字雖然不低，但同美國相比隻是一半，差別明顯。
Before 2013, Canada's drug abuse situation and mortality rates were similar to developed European countries like Sweden and England, at relatively low levels. The United States, on the other hand, had already taken the lead, being two to three times higher than these countries. Starting from ten years ago, the introduction of fentanyl in the U.S. led to a skyrocketing mortality rate (see https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/80301/202311/17508.html). Clearly, as the northern neighbor of the U.S., Canada was significantly affected. In 2022, the drug overdose mortality rate in the U.S. was 39 people per 100,000, while in Canada, it was 20 people. Although Canada's figures are not low, they are only half of the U.S., highlighting a noticeable difference.
交通事故的差別就更大了。下麵這是交通事故受傷的比例（小年齡是被動受傷，如作為乘客。）美國在各國年齡組都是加拿大的3-5倍。其中危險性最大的青年人群，美國每年400人中就有一人因車禍受傷，而加拿大2000人中才有一人受傷。美國的幼兒被動受傷的比例幾乎跟加拿大青年人群差不多，而加拿大的幼兒極少有傷害事故。
The disparity in traffic accidents is even more significant. The following represents the ratio of injuries in traffic accidents by age group (young age signifies passive injuries, such as being a passenger). In all age groups, the U.S. has 3-5 times more injuries than Canada. Among the youth, the most at-risk group, the U.S. has one person injured in a car accident for every 400 people annually, while Canada has one person injured for every 2,000 people. The rate of passive injuries among toddlers in the United States is nearly the same as that of the 25-34 age group in Canada, while incidents of injuries among toddlers are extremely rare in Canada.
如果單看（下表）車禍造成的死亡，同樣不好意思，美國在各種情況下造成的死亡概率都是加拿大的2.5倍左右。為什麽相鄰的兩個國家，美國的交通事故這麽多？簡而言之，美國人不嚴格守法！很多美國人超速、酒駕，而且很多美國人至今不使用安全的帶。
It's a shame to look at the table of deaths caused by car accidents alone: The probability of deaths in the U.S. is approximately 2.5 times higher than in Canada in all categories. Why do neighboring countries have such a disparity in traffic accidents? In simple terms, Americans do not strictly follow the law! Many Americans speed, drive under the influence, and, surprisingly, many Americans still do not use seat belts.
在交通安全方麵，美國還有執法不嚴的問題。君不見，限速65的地方，如果某輛車按規定速度開，幾乎肯定是老眼昏花的耄耋老人。其他人不開70、75都不好意思。不到80mph，警察也不管的（至少在我這裏是如此）。我知道一點德國的情況，那裏是極其嚴格的：限速多少就必須開多少，被抓到不僅僅是罰款，經常是一段時間不讓開車。上班的交通問題你自己解決。而且不光警察抓，自動係統也抓。比如兩個收費站之間，如果收費時間相隔不足，說明你一定超速了，懲罰單自動發出。
In terms of traffic safety, the U.S. also faces the issue of lax law enforcement. In areas with a speed limit of 65 mph, if a car is driving at the prescribed speed, it is almost certain that the driver is an elderly person with poor eyesight. Others feel embarrassed if they don't drive at 70 or 75 mph. The police don't intervene unless the speed is above 80 mph (at least in my area). I know a bit about Germany's situation, where regulations are extremely strict: if the speed limit is a certain number, you must drive that speed, and being caught not only results in fines but often also a suspension of driving privileges for a period. Commuting traffic problems are left for individuals to solve. Moreover, it's not just the police; automated systems also catch violations. For example, if the time between two toll stations is too short, it indicates that you must have been speeding, and a penalty notice is automatically issued.
美國人靈活，美國人熱愛自由，美國人不能因交規太嚴格影響掙錢，美國人更怕嚴格執法出現“種族主義”。於是付出的代價是，美國每年多死25000人，多傷40萬。Freedom is not free. 嗬嗬。
Americans are flexible, love freedom, and are unwilling to let strict traffic regulations affect their income. Americans also fear that strict law enforcement may lead to "racism." As a result, the cost paid is that the U.S. sees 25,000 more deaths and 400,000 more injuries each year. Freedom is not free.
現在來看看最引人矚目的謀殺與槍擊問題。我們上次說美國近30年來越來越安全了，可是很加拿大一比，謀殺率卻始終是是加拿大的3倍左右，令人汗顏啊！不拍不識貨，就怕貨比貨。從這項指標看，加拿大是一個比美國安全得多的地方。
Now, let's turn our attention to the most striking issue: murder and gun violence. Last time, I mentioned that the U.S. has become safer over the past 30 years, but when compared to Canada, the murder rate has consistently been about three times higher, which is embarrassing! Only upon comparison do we realize how far behind the U.S. falls. From this perspective, Canada is a much safer place.
我們再來看看槍支和槍擊與加拿大謀殺案的關係。先看左邊那個大圖。在2009年，美國民間槍支數超過人口總數。再看左側小圖所示，美國現在民間槍支數是人口數的120%。加拿大這個比例是35%，在世界發達國家中也是雄踞第二。右邊那個彩色圖告訴我們兩個信息：1. 美國的謀殺率是加拿大的約3.5倍（為方便起見，此處不將homicide與murder的含義作嚴格區分。）；2. 美國的殺人，80%是用槍實施的。加拿大殺人，30%用槍。至於對這些數字和圖表的進一步解讀，我就不做了。我隻是想說，相關關係不是因果關係。上周我那篇博文貼出後，與一位擁槍派網友有不少交流（我本人算不上“禁槍派”，更不是“左棍”），感興趣的朋友可以去看一下。
Let's also examine the relationship between firearms and gun violence in Canadian murder cases. Look at the large chart on the left first. In 2009, the number of civilian firearms in the U.S. exceeded the total population. Now, look at the small bar graph on the left, indicating that the current number of civilian firearms in the U.S. is 120% of the population. Canada's ratio is 35%, ranking second among developed countries worldwide. The colorful chart on the right tells us two pieces of information: 1. The U.S. murder rate is about 3.5 times that of Canada (for convenience, we don’t strictly distinguish between homicide and murder in this article); 2. In the U.S., 80% of murders are committed with firearms, while in Canada, it's 30%. As for further interpretation of these numbers and charts, I won't delve into it. I just want to say that correlation does not imply causation. After my last blog post, I had some exchange with a pro-gun netizen (I can't be considered "anti-gun" myself, let alone a "leftist"). Interested friends can go and take a look.
好，現在讓我們像上篇那樣設想一個scenario，假如你到一個完全代表今日加拿大平均水平的、一萬人口的小城去去生活一年，那麽你會看到，這一年裏麵將有91人去世。在這91個死者中，有2人是藥物過服去世（主要是吸毒所致），0.4人交通事故去世，0.2人被謀殺，1.2人自殺，0.5人死於其他事故（假定發生率與美國一樣），其他近87人都是因生病或衰老去世的。這個統計數字如果換成中產華人，藥物過量致死趨近為零，被謀殺極少。特別重要的是，交通事故死亡率比美國減少了60%。所以在總體上，美國華人遭遇“不測”的概率（主要是車禍和謀殺），可能接近加拿大華人的3倍。
Now, let's imagine a scenario, similar to the one in the previous article. Suppose you go to a small town with a population of 10,000 that completely represents the current average level of Canada to live for a year. In that year, you will see 91 people die. Among these 91 deceased, 2 died from drug overdose (mainly due to drug use), 0.4 died in traffic accidents, 0.2 were murdered, 1.2 committed suicide, 0.5 died from other accidents (assuming the rate is the same as in the U.S.), and nearly 87 died from illness or old age. If we change these statistics to represent middle-class Chinese individuals, drug overdose deaths would approach zero, and murders would be very rare. Importantly, the mortality rate from traffic accidents is 60% lower than in the U.S. So overall, the probability of Chinese individuals in the U.S. encountering "unexpected death" (mainly due to car accidents and murders) may be close to three times that of Chinese individuals in Canada.
寫到這裏，我心中難免幾分鬱悶。美國比加拿大差得遠啊！上周的文章的後一部分，我說了美國的不少好，比如美國經濟的強大，美國基礎科學、核心技術、創新能力等是生活在美國這片土地上的人民最大的“安全”等等。後來我意識到，我前一半主要是談safety的問題，後麵轉到了security上麵。兩者在中文都翻譯成“安全”，但是在英文裏，其內涵是有些不同的。加拿大的safety明顯比美國好，這是不爭的事實。然而，它security方麵怎麽樣，宏觀方麵怎麽樣？我作為美國公民，現在臉上有點掛不住。能不能找點地方扳回一局？
Writing up to this point, I can't help feeling a bit depressed. The United States is far worse than Canada! In the latter part of last week's article, I talked about many good things about the United States, such as its strong economy, the United States being the quite "secure" place for people living on this land in terms of basic science, core technology, and innovation, etc. Later, I realized that in the first half, I mainly talked about the issue of safety, and in the latter half, I shifted to security. Both are translated into "安全" in Chinese, but in English, their connotations are somewhat different. Canada's safety is clearly better than the U.S., and that is an indisputable fact. However, how about its security at the macro level? As a U.S. citizen, I now feel a bit awkward. Can I find some points to turn the game around?
上麵中張圖顯示美國和加拿大失業率的比較。雖然趨勢類似，但這些年加拿大的失業率始終比美國高1.5-2 個百分點。最新公布的數字是美國失業率3.7%，加拿大5.7%。這不是一個小的差別。它表明美國的勞動力市場更為活躍，人們容易找到工作，容易掙到錢，也相對不怕失業。這在高學曆人群中同樣明顯。在我的公司認識的人中，就有數位加拿大博士。他們都說美國機會多。美聯儲在最近一年多幾次升息，以對抗通貨膨脹率的飆升和經濟過熱。現在通脹率已經接近正常，且並沒有引起失業率的明顯上升，這是“軟著陸”的重要標誌。假如美國失業率升到了加拿大的水平，聯儲就麻煩了。
The above chart shows a comparison of the unemployment rates between the U.S. and Canada. Although the trends are similar, over the years, Canada's unemployment rate has consistently been 1.5-2 percentage points higher than that of the United States. The latest published numbers are a 3.7% unemployment rate in the U.S. and a 5.7% rate in Canada. This is not a small difference. It indicates that the U.S. labor market is more active, people find jobs more easily, earn money more easily, and are relatively less afraid of unemployment. This is also evident among the highly educated population. Among people I know in my company, there are several Canadian Ph.D. scientists. They all say that there are more opportunities in the U.S. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates several times in the past year to combat the surge in inflation and an overheating economy. Now, with the inflation rate nearing normal levels and not causing a noticeable increase in the unemployment rate, people see important sign of a "soft landing." If the U.S. unemployment rate rise to the level of Canada's, the Fed would be in trouble.
美國另一個值得驕傲的地方便是經濟持續穩定上升，人民富裕。從上圖可以看出，10年前加拿大的人均GDP甚至一度超過美國，現在已經差得很遠。現在，美國的人均GDP是加拿大的1.43倍，英國的1.64倍，法國的1.58倍，德國的1.52倍，意大利的2.16倍，日本的2.37倍。加上美國的低稅率（別的國家可能有更好的福利，這是另一個話題，這裏不談。）美國人民手上的錢要多很多，他們享受更富裕的生活。
Another point that the U.S. can be proud of is its continuously rising and stable economy, making its citizens prosperous. From the chart above, you can see that ten years ago, Canada's per capita GDP even temporarily exceeded that of the U.S., but now the gap is significant. Currently, the U.S. per capita GDP is 1.43 times that of Canada, 1.64 times that of the U.K., 1.58 times that of France, 1.52 times that of Germany, 2.16 times that of Italy, and 2.37 times that of Japan. Coupled with the low tax rates in the U.S. (other countries may have better welfare, which is another topic not discussed here), the people in the U.S. have much more money, leading to a more prosperous life.
如果拋開安全這個主題去比，還有一點很重要，那就是美國幅員遼闊、可以讓人欣賞的地方，不論是城市風貌、文化藝術還是自然景觀都是極其豐富的。美國“好玩”。上圖是北美被境外遊客訪問最多的10座城市，美、加共占8席，而美國遠居前列（首都華盛頓和芝加哥緊隨其後），圖下的數字是每年境外遊客的訪問人數。我有一位國內的朋友，算“成功人士”，老婆孩子二十年前就在多倫多安家，他早年兩邊跑。他告訴我，他成年的3個孩子，每年要開著車去紐約，住兩個星期，觀劇、逛博物館、看球、聽音樂會。老兩口不解，問孩子：紐約髒兮兮、亂哄哄的，有什麽好，看一次還不夠？孩子答：爸媽，你們不懂。
If we set aside the safety theme for comparison, there's one more crucial point: the vast and appreciable places that the U.S. offers, whether in terms of cityscapes, cultural arts, or natural landscapes, are extremely rich. The U.S. is "fun." The chart above shows the top 10 cities most visited by foreign tourists in North America, with the U.S. and Canada collectively occupying eight seats, and the U.S. leading the pack (followed closely by Washington, D.C., and Chicago), with the numbers below the chart representing the annual number of visits by foreign tourists. I have a friend in China, considered a "successful person," whose wife and children settled in Toronto twenty years ago. He used to travel between the two countries frequently. He told me that his three adult children, every year, drive to New York City, stay for two weeks, watch shows, visit museums, watch sports, and attend concerts. The old couple couldn't understand and asked the children: NYC is messy and chaotic; what's so good about it? Isn't once enough? The children replied: Mom and Dad, you don't understand.
很多年以前，Talk show主持人Craig Ferguson，操著他那蘇格蘭口音，風趣地比較過美國和加拿大。他說像美國是一個party，而加拿大是party的樓上一個安靜的地方。我認為這個比喻十分形象。
Many years ago, talk show host Craig Ferguson, with his Scottish accent, once humorously compared the U.S. and Canada. He said that the U.S. is like a party, while Canada is a quiet place upstairs above the party. I think this metaphor is very apt.
是參加party呢，還是呆在party的樓上，這是一個問題。
To attend the party, or to stay in the quiet place upstairs, that is the question.
【Edited from ChatGPT translation.】
