Annual death rate under vaccination

You can't use 2020 vs 2021 as annual death rate cut off. It created biased variation due to vaccine was not widely available until May. You should use rolling forward looking projection based on current run rate. Take Santa Clara county for example, it's close to herd immunity now with 72% fully vaccinated. Everything is open and no mask requirement. The current death rate is 2 per day due to unvaccinated people. You can redo your model now -:)

 

 

所有跟帖： 

• 唉，這算不錯了。LZ以前曾發過一個貼子，用首次疫苗公開接種的日子當切點，來比較前後疫情變化，說打疫苗後更糟了 -fuz- ♂ (0 bytes) () 06/26/2021 postreply 11:17:51

• This is simply wrong. 做人要有底線。 -nshen6- ♀ (0 bytes) () 06/26/2021 postreply 11:58:20

• + 做人要有底線 -TBz- ♂ (0 bytes) () 06/26/2021 postreply 13:04:46

• 你歪曲了不是。我是說效果甚微，就是說這個效果太小，死亡曲線上肉眼觀察不出來。 -solo1- ♂ (0 bytes) () 06/26/2021 postreply 13:05:45

• 想起一個類比：計劃生育後，中國人口繼續增長。 -Shine20- ♀ (47 bytes) () 06/26/2021 postreply 14:21:58