猜想CDC研究的問題是

 

CDC研究都是用最大7天的確診案例，住院和死亡。但Omicron比Delta病程短，所以都用最大7天的住院和死亡數量與base（確診病例）比，有可能Omicron被納入的死亡和住院病人比base多。

原文：

The maximum 7-day moving averages of the daily number of COVID-19 cases, ED visits, hospital admissions, and deaths during the Omicron period were compared with the peak 7-day moving averages for the winter 2020–21 and Delta periods. The maximum percentages of inpatient and ICU bed use overall and by COVID-19 patients were compared between periods. For each period analyzed, ratios of ED visits, hospital admissions, and deaths per 1,000 COVID-19 cases were calculated.

所有跟帖： 

• 年底年初是病毒版本transition 的窗口 -julie116- ♀ (0 bytes) () 02/01/2022 postreply 10:23:28

• 其實，應該用每十萬人口每日病死率更合理。現在“自檢”或“自不檢”的情況越來越多，病例數已嚴重失真。 -fuz- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/01/2022 postreply 10:41:21

• 還是不如追蹤Cohort準確。 -value_hunter- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/01/2022 postreply 10:44:05

• 那是。可美國從上到下，正經幹事的人不多啊 -fuz- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/01/2022 postreply 10:47:57

• 這才是西方國家抗疫失敗的根源 -周老大- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/01/2022 postreply 15:12:15

• 再細看發現CDC的研究簡單粗糙，不合常理，推導荒謬結論。請看： -value_hunter- ♂ (1012 bytes) () 02/01/2022 postreply 12:21:18