薄少帥請收:Comparative and Moat Analysis for IREN

IREN (Iris Energy Limited) is a bitcoin mining and data center operator emphasizing 100% renewable energy sources. Its moats are solid but evolving, particularly as it pivots toward AI/HPC to hedge against crypto volatility.

 

1. Approach

The following are IREN’s peers that I compared it with, based on moat pillars relevant to their sector in bitcoin mining, AI infrastructure, or components. The sectors are roughly divided into 3 buckets: (1) Crypto Miners: CLSK, CIFR, HIVE, MARA, RIOT & WULF; (2) AI/HPC Data Centers: APLD, CRWV/CoreWeave, & NBIS/Nebius, and (3) Enablers: NVTS/Navitas.

To save time, I asked Grok AI which one among CLSK, CIFR, HIVE, MARA, RIOT & WULF is the most competitive peer of IREN, and the answer was CLSK. So below I’ll only compare IREN vs. CLSK for the crypto mining sector.

I also consulted Grok AI for which company in the 2nd sector could be the biggest threat to IREN, and the answer was kind of obvious: it’s CRWV.

Hence, my comparative analysis will be focused on IREN vs. CLSK, IREN vs. CRWV, and IREN vs. NVTS.

 

2. Comparative Analysis

(1) Crypto Miners: IREN vs. CLSK
IREN: bitcoin mining & AI infra
- Facts: low energy cost, 100% renewable, owns all sites, great fleet efficiency, good hashrate & scale
- AI/HPC pivot: 800+ MW in development, early hyperscaler deals (NVDA GPUs), Green AI branding (i.e. strategic marketing and positioning of AI infra as environmentally sustainable)
- Balance sheets: $420m cash/$180m debt, zero lease drag, capex $0.9m/CPU

CLSK: bitcoin mining
- Facts: low energy cost, 80% renewable, leases 30% sites, great fleet efficiency, good hashrate & scale
- AI/HPC pivot: 300 MW in development, hosting pilots (no major deals yet), secondary focus
- Balance sheets: $250m cash/$350m debt, lease obligations, capex $1.2m/CPU

My Takeaways-1: IREN is more of a strategic compounder vs. CLSK. Its moat is wider and stickier in a world where hyperscalers pay premiums for green and owned infrastructure.

(2) AI/HPC Data Centers: IREN vs. CRWV

Among the three companies APLD, NBIS and CRWV, CRWV poses the greatest threat to IREN. As a pure-play AI GPU cloud provider with unmatched scale, CRWV directly competes for IREN’s core AI cloud customers, the high-end AI training/inference workloads, while poaching clients and commanding premium pricing.

IREN’s recent ~$10B Microsoft deal on November 5 bolstered its pivot, but CRWV has NVDA’s exclusivity, $25B+ backlog and 80%+ market share in specialized AI infra, and huge contacts… all of these make it hard for IREN to reach its $500M AI sales goal by Q1 2026. 

Below are the facts:
(a) IREN’s GPUs pale vs. CRWV’s fleet, 
(b) even though IREN relies on green energy for differentiation, hyperscalers generally prioritize CRWV’s speed/scale over the “all green” premiums, 
(c) IREN’s twin, APLD (ex-miner, US AI infra pivot), its relationship with CRWV is a feeder not a slayer, 
(d) NBIS’ geographic focus of EU-heavy limits its US clash with CRWV

My Takeaways-2: If IREN wants to hit its AI sales goal, it must differentiate itself from CRWV on costs or green energy, not raw GPU scale; though, even with this approach, I personally think its market share will either erode or be squeezed out by CRWV. In the AI infra pivot sector, IREN’s best alternative may be to compete with APLD and become another feeder of CRWV, or be squeezed out of the game, or “luckily”, be acquired.

(3) Enablers: NVTS/Navitas

NVTS and IREN operate in overlapping ecosystems, AI data centers and energy-efficient computing, but they are not direct rivals. NVTS is an upstream semiconductor supplier, and IREN is a downstream infrastructure player. IREN is the scaled operator winning the AI gold rush while NVTS is the picks-and-shovels supplier.

My Takeaways-3: IREN and NVTS could be more of a pair for full-stack services than competing peers.

 

3. Business Moats Analysis (scale 5)

(1) Cost leadership moat - scale 5/5: renewable energy cost moat
(2) Network effects moat - scale 2/5: 80% in crypto mining, 20% AI infra, under huge threat from CRWV’s dominance 
(3) Brand/regulatory license moat - scale 3/5: green AI brand premium, yet this is not “unshakable”
(4) Scale (Capital & Data) moat - scale 5/5: by owning infrastructure and pipeline, hence lower capex and debts
(5) Switching cost moat - scale 4/5: with MSFT’s 5-15yr leases for $10B, locked revenue 
(6) Proprietary tech/IP moat - scale 2/5: no patents, solely relies on site design and firmware tweaks 
(7) Distribution/access moat - scale 4/5: by owning land and grid rights
(8) A hidden moat, the finance expertise in IREN’s leadership team - scale 5/5: IREN is not just a miner, it’s a capital markets operator; in this capex-intensive industry, finance fluency isn’t a nice-to-have, it’s survival oxygen. This leadership team led IREN’s $20B Capex AI pivot.

My Final Takeaways: IREN has a total business moat of 30 out 40, i.e., 75% which should be considered as a “wide moat” ---- so, go IREN! :)

 

所有跟帖: 

太厲害了,我花時間研究一下 -薄利多收- 給 薄利多收 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:13:00

lol 得請吃飯,花了我兩小時, -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (148 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:23:17

請客是必須的。兩個小時能寫出這麽 -薄利多收- 給 薄利多收 發送悄悄話 (135 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:20:50

謝謝少帥肯定,本來是想周末寫的,但自己也是好奇那護城河到底有多深呀lol -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (373 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:42:27

今天我告訴一個朋友,或許是因為我的工作性質,多年的經驗可以讓我在交流中很快辨識出 -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (581 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:56:27

CLSK is not comparable with IREN at all. -620Oaks- 給 620Oaks 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:23:23

In which way? -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:24:47

electric power. -620Oaks- 給 620Oaks 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:26:42

This doesn’t make my analysis and end results different;) -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:28:21

Yes.如果說有一個原因,要買這些比特礦企,那就是電力。 也就是說,他們轉型中,才有了投資的吸引力。 如果說有一個股 -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (76 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:34:54

This won’t change IREN’s moats either, nothing in -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (95 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:46:28

after that 2-hr research, I’m comfortable to defend my -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (222 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:50:10

嗯嗯,真的寫的很全麵。good night. -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 20:51:56

謝謝曉炎的研究和bogMM的comments -香虞- 給 香虞 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:25:19

還有橡樹,他看到了關鍵點,我隻是回複了一下, -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (78 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 22:03:53

IREN ER data -香虞- 給 香虞 發送悄悄話 (155784 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:29:11

ER Link -香虞- 給 香虞 發送悄悄話 (109 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 21:29:44

謝謝! -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 06:32:17

CRWV有英偉達作為後盾,規模也更大,但是風險比較高,財務杠杆很高,即使用6年折舊也看不到財務盈利和正現金流 -GandalfOld- 給 GandalfOld 發送悄悄話 (284 bytes) () 11/06/2025 postreply 22:43:38

早!剛起床lol 去gym之前讀你的留言,突發奇想—— -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (463 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 04:16:50

曉炎早最,a creative idea. have a nice day~~ -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 06:03:25

早!lol 做了10幾年m&a, 這點想象力應該有的;) -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 06:24:05

不錯的想法。在別的地方看了分析,看來共同點是IREN的moat在搞定了電力配額。 -GandalfOld- 給 GandalfOld 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 06:12:32

我認為它最大的moat是在財力上,不是搞定電力配額, -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (364 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 06:30:44

有可能。電力的擴產對北美其實很不容易,結合最近黃仁勳對中國電力充足的焦慮,微軟因為沒有電力導致GPU的閑置, -GandalfOld- 給 GandalfOld 發送悄悄話 (329 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 07:33:03

是的,您說的很對!我前一個回複應該修正為—- -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (319 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 08:25:49

多謝你的文章總結,我是業餘中的業餘,自己一個人很難研究全麵,討論能讓看法趨近真相。。。 -GandalfOld- 給 GandalfOld 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 09:57:14

Does the renewable electricity IREN bought comes through the -GlassPumpkin- 給 GlassPumpkin 發送悄悄話 (103 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 04:30:21

No clue, all I know is that it presents itself as all green -曉炎- 給 曉炎 發送悄悄話 曉炎 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 04:34:27

他們好像是用天然氣發電的 -TexasSherry- 給 TexasSherry 發送悄悄話 (18745 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 17:06:17

從GRID來,不過那邊有充足的天然氣田。 -TexasSherry- 給 TexasSherry 發送悄悄話 (201 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 17:09:42

這個新的datacenter 有很多當地人反對,水冷的噪聲太大 -TexasSherry- 給 TexasSherry 發送悄悄話 (1269 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 17:22:49

Atmos Energy ATO 是附近的煤氣供應公司,挺穩定的有分紅的公司 -TexasSherry- 給 TexasSherry 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 17:26:38

昨天忙,晚上才看了你,橡樹和bog的分析。看來IREN有潛力,謝謝分享!我準備今天建倉。 -aloevera- 給 aloevera 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 07:30:19

Iren 前天說了, 也是有很多不確定性, -bogbog- 給 bogbog 發送悄悄話 bogbog 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 11/07/2025 postreply 14:58:37

請您先登陸,再發跟帖!