一次性徹底證明止損在邏輯上的荒謬性

本帖於 2025-10-10 18:29:13 時間, 由普通用戶 monseigneur 編輯

Stop loss is touted as the indispensable "life saving" principle in investing, but let's scrutinize its logical absurdity once and for all.

first, the stop loss point is relative to your purchase point, so if the same stock drops, it triggers some people's stop loss rule, but some other people's appetite to bottom fish. There's no absolute standard to measure an investment decision. Everything is relative. But how can the same stock be good and bad at the same time, for people who piously follow the same stop loss principle? Unless, of course, it is quantum mechanics...

Second, the assumption of stop loss is that it will continue to fall. This, however, requires the assumption of momentum existing universally everywhere every time, which is a very strong yet impossible assumption.

third, the nature of stop loss is no more than a random decision to sell based on astrology or other factors. Wall Street know it, so they trigger people to stop loss so easily as they do a puppet. 

then why do some people swear it is stop loss that saved their investment life? Perhaps biological life too, in some extreme cases. That's because stop loss essentially cuts an investment into random pieces on time axis, thereby presenting some kind of "time diversification". This is different from "spacial diversification", where different stocks are picked, but each stock is a whole piece, not further divided into pieces on time axis.

In fact, when your portfolio are diversified, even if one stock drops to zero, it is not enough to cause panic selling, and you don't have to "stop loss" a stock at precisely an unfavorable price, which is nothing more than some whimsical impulse, far from being an educated investment decision.

所有跟帖: 

所以倉位控製比止損更重要。 -CLM2020- 給 CLM2020 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 18:48:44

是的 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:01:51

你講的真好。非常清晰易懂。 -雨女- 給 雨女 發送悄悄話 雨女 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 19:04:12

謝謝 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:02:00

很好的思考,但是邏輯還是有漏洞的。問問scalping trading經驗的人,沒有止損的話,要100%勝率才能生存 -GandalfOld- 給 GandalfOld 發送悄悄話 (272 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:21:47

沒有漏洞,高度集中一隻股票,本身就是危險根源,止損隻是讓人可以多玩幾次;如爬山不帶水,為了活命喝糞水,不代表糞水延年益壽 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:13:18

有點稻草人的辯論法,喜歡把別人的觀點往極端裏推。(1)用trading session來分離風險,並不代表隻有一個股票, -GandalfOld- 給 GandalfOld 發送悄悄話 (425 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:35:53

如果你講清楚是多隻股票,我不辯論;如果是持續玩一隻高風險股票如期貨,無論你怎麽止損也改變不了命運,隻不過是延長 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:51:36

你的命運在選擇參與一個遊戲的時候已經決定了,止損隻不過是經常停下來出局,然後還是要回來玩,請問怎麽逃過命運? -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:57:43

要證偽“玩期貨的長期一定完蛋”不難,找到一個玩期貨為生並退休的。不過我其實是理解你原文的意思的, -GandalfOld- 給 GandalfOld 發送悄悄話 (607 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 22:10:11

我並沒有說它的命運是完蛋,它的固有命運也可能是成長;買入賣出的真正理由的確應該是你說的那樣,基於某種絕對標準 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 22:24:33

止損是為了加杠杆投機設計的,幾倍幾十倍杠杆,沒有止損很快就爆倉了 -靈山問禪- 給 靈山問禪 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:26:33

Day trade,scalping,swing trade也是要有止損的,論壇裏的TA高手比我懂 -GandalfOld- 給 GandalfOld 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:30:08

如果是那樣,有止損也會爆倉,隻不過是調慢了時鍾而已,理由同上 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 22:01:39

Stop loss is not based on perfect science, but on chance -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 三心三意 的博客首頁 (392 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 20:35:47

是否止損不是鐵律,而是基於其它的情況來決定;絕對不止損和絕對要止損是同樣荒謬的 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:05:55

這是對的。It is a probability, 不是絕對的 -三心三意- 給 三心三意 發送悄悄話 三心三意 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:08:59

但必需聲明,止損的決定應該是罕見的,因為如果你買入一隻股票的原因是長遠的,那麽賣出的原因就不應該是某些瑣碎短期的事情 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:19:17

要麽早止損,要麽不止損。 -QinHwang- 給 QinHwang 發送悄悄話 QinHwang 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:36:50

是的,實際上止損應該發生在買入之前,一個不值得玩的遊戲根本不需要開始 -monseigneur- 給 monseigneur 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:53:35

止損是給右側趨勢交易用的,左側抄底不能用:起飛之前會劇烈震蕩 -SGZ- 給 SGZ 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:19:03

為什麽起飛之前會劇烈震蕩? -cnrhm2017- 給 cnrhm2017 發送悄悄話 cnrhm2017 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:39:54

為了甩出弱手 -Maggie789- 給 Maggie789 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:51:32

也為了莊家更多低價吸籌 -SGZ- 給 SGZ 發送悄悄話 (0 bytes) () 10/11/2025 postreply 05:53:27

我習慣左側交易,極少追漲。左側交易多數情況是要在水下一陣子。 -QinHwang- 給 QinHwang 發送悄悄話 QinHwang 的博客首頁 (0 bytes) () 10/10/2025 postreply 21:41:16

我丟錢的教訓是止損太頻繁,自從改變了策略,很少再丟了。 -西糖胡同- 給 西糖胡同 發送悄悄話 西糖胡同 的博客首頁 (279 bytes) () 10/11/2025 postreply 09:56:11

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