華爾街知名大空頭投降認輸!喊美股明年Q2上看5400點
隨著美股再度挑戰新高,華爾街著名大空頭摩根士丹利投資長威爾森(Michael
Wilson)倒戈支持多頭,預估到明年第2季,標普500指數將達到5400點,大幅上調2成。
外媒報導,隨著美股近幾個月來的持續上漲,再創新高,多家大型投行紛紛上調標普500目標價,其中又以BMO投資策略師Brian
Belski將標普500指數年底目標提高至5600點,是目前華爾街主流投行中目標價最高,其次是富國銀行,從原4625點上調到5535點,第3則是德意誌銀行,目標價從5100點調高到5500點,至於棄械投降的大摩則從4500點大幅高到5400點,而目前目標價估最低者則是加拿大皇家銀行,從5150點提高到5300點。
摩根士丹利在最新發佈的全球策略年中展望報告中,威爾森倒戈支持多頭,並指出,首先需要認識到,對於美國經濟將在聯準會的緊縮週期中實現硬著陸、軟著陸還是無著陸,存在不同看法,這使得可能的結果範圍相當廣泛。
他指出,“過去幾個月是這方麵的1個縮影,因為在一段強勁增長後,經濟增長數據再次降溫,而通膨數據則波動較大”,簡而言之,由於數據變得更加不穩定,宏觀結果變得越來越難以預測。
儘管如此,威爾森的基準預測是,在收入增長和利潤率擴張的推動下,2024年和2025年的盈利增長率分別爲8%和13%。
因此,到2025年第2季度,標普500指數的12個月遠期本益比將是2026年6月預期總收益283美元的19倍,相當於5400點。
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