274 愛報不報：Michigan, Here Is The Dem Deal–Nobody or Romney

The line is in Michigan, not surprisingly. Following the Iowa caucus, Obama and Edwards has declined to register as write-in candidates in Michigan State primary scheduled Today, Jan 15, Tuesday. Why? The State has violated the DNC rule by moving its primary up into January. As a result, DNC stripped off Michigan from the 2008 convention on its delegate seats. Another state that received the same treatment due the same reason is Florida, which primary is to be held on Jan 29. However, Michigan Dems are turning out historical high and there is a increasing telling that they will vote for either Nobody or Romney.

什麽是uncommitted votes。簡單的說，就是vote for nobody。因DNC宣布禁止密歇根州的代表參加08年的黨全會，希拉裏許諾不在密州搞競選活動，奧巴馬和愛德華茲則於1月4日撤出競選注冊，則導致目前密州民主黨的ballots裏隻有希拉裏一位主要候選人。希拉裏不放棄注冊，是因為密州因為沒人campaign，她獲勝概率最大。

如果密州今天的民主黨ballots出現超過15%的uncommitted，則密州將會派出相應的uncommitted的delegates出席DNC。如果這些代表最終被允許投票，那麽他們的投票到時候將是自由投票，可以投給任何人。這樣密州初選的獲勝就失去意義了。更重要的事，如果obama和edwards的支持者都投了uncommitted，那麽希拉裏將很可能得票數次於uncommitted。這種輸給“nobody”的意義對於希拉裏來講，非常不利。這不僅挑戰其front runner的神話，還預示著在將來愛、奧聯合的條件下希拉裏的劣勢處境。

另外，民主黨選民最近還在串聯去投Mitt Romney的票。Romney被評為民主黨最喜歡的共和黨人。As being said, There is no greater voice against the Republican candidates than this republican candidate。如果Romney勝出密州，共和黨將出現三足鼎立的態勢，那樣黨內的相互攻訐將會更激烈。所有候選人都有更多的被“毀”機會。

到底今天的結果會怎樣，民黨人是投Uncommitted還是Romney，等晚上就見分曉。不過可以肯定的是，密州的民主黨人雖然看上去已經被DNC封了，將來解禁的可能性也不大，但是出來的投票的人數還是會創曆史新高。凸子預測，Nobody似乎比Romney更符合密州產業工人對政府的強烈不滿情緒。

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