世紀之戰50

世紀之戰50

 

弧度度

 

普京是如何淪為配角的

 

俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭之前，倘若有人告訴你說俄軍的鋼鐵洪流必將碾壓烏克蘭，相信絕大多數人都會信以為真；然而在俄烏之戰爆發後，誰再說俄羅斯軍力排名世界第二，恐怕隻會貽笑大方了。

 

為什麽會出現如此強烈的反差？普帝究竟是被誰忽悠瘸了——乃至從世紀強人淪為世界舞台上的配角？

 

第一個忽悠普帝的，是俄羅斯的情報組織。據三大情報機構——俄羅斯聯邦安全局（FSB）、俄羅斯對外情報局（SVR）和俄軍總參謀部情報總局（GRU，格魯烏）向克裏姆林宮匯報稱：烏克蘭政權脆弱，內部派係分裂，隻要俄軍挺進烏克蘭，那些被策反的“內鬼”們就會率領民眾夾道歡迎，通過“公投”輕鬆搞掂烏克蘭。然而事後被證實，該部門（主要是FSB第五局）為了迎合高層期望，或是由於資金被貪汙，提供了嚴重脫離實際的樂觀報告。

 

第二個忽悠普帝的，是他的天命摯友習皇。習皇訪問美國受辱後，當即打腫臉充胖子，轉身飛往俄羅斯找普大帝求安慰求抱抱，雙方簽訂“合作無上限”的盟約。兩位泥足巨人約定：俄軍入侵烏克蘭，中共黨衛軍攻打台灣，中共給俄軍提供充足的戰略物資保障。有了這份取之不盡用之不竭的保單後，再加上由於情資錯誤所產生的誤判，普帝不再猶豫地相信了習皇為他指明的方向：“放眼全球，我們正麵臨百年未有之大變局——東升西降。”

 

第三個忽悠普帝的，是俄羅斯的大小官員。與幾乎所有獨裁者類似，普帝最聽不得逆耳忠言，對那些膽敢提出不同意見的人進行一輪又一輪大清洗。久而久之，官員們都選擇了躺平，寧肯不作為、少作為也絕不去觸犯普帝的逆鱗，寧肯報喜不報憂也要先保命再保烏紗帽。普帝收到的“好消息”越多，產生的誤判也就越多，製定出漏洞百出的應對之策也就在所難免了。

 

無意之中，俄羅斯與朝鮮、伊朗一樣，竟然也淪落為不得不接受習皇操控的——用來對付美西方的一枚棋子。習皇在俄烏之間扮演著“兩麵人”的角色，明麵上支持俄羅斯，暗地裏卻援助烏克蘭，甚至製定了瓜分俄羅斯遠東的計劃。自己約的炮，含著淚都要把它打完，普帝竟然拿背後捅刀的習皇毫無辦法。

 

俄羅斯的貨幣大幅貶值，物價急劇飛漲，全靠中共為其輸血續命；俄羅斯軍隊被打回原形，一百幾十萬青壯年為了實現普帝稱霸世界的“新沙皇夢”，化作俄烏戰場上的炮灰；俄羅斯迅速淪為三流國家，被國際舞台邊緣化，在國際事務中幾無話語權；普帝被海牙法庭審判，以“戰爭犯”的罪名遭到通緝，除了訪問朝鮮、中共國是安全的，到訪其他國家都要擔心會不會遭到逮捕；曆來不願得罪中、俄的以色列竟公開威脅要“斬首普京”，可見俄羅斯的國力已經衰弱到何等地步——被烏克蘭按在地上使勁摩擦，還怎麽好意思在國際上混？素以精明著稱的普帝竟然被憨厚老實的習皇耍得團團轉，又能找誰說理去？

 

普帝的淒慘遭遇再一次證明：凡是相信中共的人，都會淪為受其操控的提線木偶；凡是相信中共的國家，都會陷於萬劫不複。

 

當然，無論是金元帥還是普帝，對付狡詐多汁的習皇都自有小妙招：朝鮮在中共國近海投放髒彈，俄羅斯把核廢料堆砌在中俄邊境……中俄“命運共同體”，既相互綁定又相互背刺，最終鹿死誰手尚未可知。

 

實話實說，如果俄羅斯沒有入侵烏克蘭，世界格局將會是這樣的：中、俄、朝、伊、敘結成穩固的邪惡軸心聯盟，再加上古巴、委內瑞拉、巴西、南非等一眾小迷弟的群魔亂舞，即可做到進可攻退可守——進可以在美國後院點火，退可以在黑海、南海、霍爾木茲海峽肆虐，足以把奉行綏靖政策的歐美嚇尿。

 

如何打破僵局？唯有通過示弱來誘導中、俄的任意一方率先開戰。無論是俄羅斯進攻烏克蘭，還是中共黨衛軍攻打台灣，都會陷於美西方早已布置好的陷阱，在戰爭泥淖中苦苦掙紮而不得脫，最終被徹底拖垮。隻要中、俄兩位主要對手中的任意一方被拖垮，另一個再想挑戰國際規則與秩序就沒那麽容易了。

 

及至懦弱的拜登下台，強勢的川普回歸，在排解極左民主黨人（中共代理人）構陷的重重險阻後，地表最強鷹派團隊終於下定決心展開反擊。通過跨國抓捕馬杜羅威懾古巴、哥倫比亞、墨西哥、巴西等“反骨仔”，清理南美後院；通過與以色列的強強聯手，強拆“邪惡軸心”的分支——哈馬斯、黎巴嫩真主黨、胡塞武裝、伊朗，斬斷中共對外擴張的魔爪。

 

與當年的納粹德國相比，俄羅斯具有三大無法克服的短板：一、納粹德國的軍事實力排名世界第一，而俄軍的真實戰力卻早已淪為世界二流；二、納粹德軍用鋼鐵洪流的“閃電戰”打贏了時間差，俄羅斯軍隊的鋼鐵洪流卻輸在了信息差；三、納粹德軍的實力足以單挑整個歐洲，結果卻輸在了資源匱乏，俄羅斯軍隊雖然資源充足（本身是能源大國，再加上中共輸送的物資源源不斷），卻輸在了武器的代差。

 

可憐的普帝，雖然像世紀狂人希特勒那樣擁有稱霸世界的野心，卻怎奈遭遇的全是豬隊友？習皇的猶豫不決導致錯失戰機，習皇的背刺更是令普帝如鯁在喉。

 

深陷窮途末路的普帝，唯一的解套方式就是接過川普遞出的橄欖枝——與烏克蘭和談，轉而圍剿中共。中共不滅，世界必將深受其害。俄羅斯繼續與中共綁定，隻會被其反噬。

 

（未完待續）

 

The War of the Century, Part 50

 

Hu Dudu 

 

How Putin Became a Supporting Role

 

Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, if someone told you that the Russian army's overwhelming force would crush Ukraine, most people would have believed it. However, after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, anyone who still claims that Russia's military is the second strongest in the world would be a laughingstock.

 

Why such a stark contrast? Who exactly misled Putin—leading him from a powerful figure to a supporting character on the world stage?

 

The first to mislead Putin was Russia's intelligence agencies. According to reports from the three major intelligence agencies—the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), and the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU)—to the Kremlin, the Ukrainian regime was fragile and internally divided. They claimed that if the Russian army advanced into Ukraine, these "traitors" would lead the people in a welcoming ceremony, easily taking control of Ukraine through a "referendum." However, it was later confirmed that the department (mainly the FSB's Fifth Directorate) provided an overly optimistic report, either to cater to high-level expectations or due to embezzlement.

 

The second person to mislead Putin was his close ally, Xi Jinping. After being humiliated during his visit to the United States, Xi immediately put on a brave face and flew to Russia to seek comfort and support from Putin. The two signed an alliance of "unlimited cooperation." The two giants agreed that if Russian troops invaded Ukraine, the Chinese Communist Party would attack Taiwan, and the CCP would provide the Russian military with ample strategic material support. With this inexhaustible guarantee, coupled with misjudgments due to flawed intelligence, Putin readily believed the direction Xi pointed him in: "Looking at the world, we are facing a great change unseen in a century—the East is rising and the West is declining."

 

The third person to mislead Putin was Russian officials at all levels. Like almost all dictators, Putin is extremely intolerant of dissenting opinions and has launched wave after wave of purges against those who dare to express different views. Over time, officials chose to lie low, preferring inaction or minimal action to provoking Putin's wrath, prioritizing survival over their positions by reporting only good news. The more "good news" Putin received, the more misjudgments he made, inevitably leading to flawed countermeasures.

 

Unwittingly, Russia, like North Korea and Iran, has become a pawn, manipulated by Xi Jinping to counter the West. Xi plays a double game between Russia and Ukraine, outwardly supporting Russia while secretly aiding Ukraine and even devising plans to partition Russia's Far East. Putin, having made his own choice, is now forced to fight it out, even with tears in his eyes, and is powerless against Xi's backstabbing.

 

Russia's currency has plummeted, and prices have skyrocketed, relying entirely on the CCP's financial support to stay afloat. The Russian military has been reduced to its original state, with hundreds of thousands of young men becoming cannon fodder on the Russo-Ukrainian battlefield in pursuit of Putin's "new Tsarist dream" of world domination. Russia has rapidly declined into a third-rate nation, marginalized on the international stage, with virtually no voice in international affairs. Putin is on trial in The Hague, wanted as a "war criminal," and only safe to visit North Korea and China; he fears arrest whenever he travels to other countries. Even Israel, historically reluctant to offend China or Russia, has openly threatened to "behead Putin," demonstrating the extent of Russia's weakened power—being thoroughly humiliated by Ukraine, how can it possibly maintain its international standing? The shrewd Putin has been completely outmaneuvered by the seemingly honest Xi Jinping; who can he turn to for justice?

 

Putin's tragic fate once again proves that anyone who trusts the CCP will become a puppet controlled by it; any country that trusts the CCP will be doomed.

 

Of course, both Kim Jong-un and Putin have their own tricks for dealing with the cunning and shrewd Xi Jinping: North Korea dropped dirty bombs in China's coastal waters, Russia piled up nuclear waste on the Sino-Russian border… The Sino-Russian "community of shared destiny" is both intertwined and mutually destructive; the final outcome remains uncertain.

 

Frankly speaking, if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine, the world order would be like this: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Syria would form a stable axis of evil, coupled with the chaotic antics of its followers like Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, and South Africa, allowing for both offense and defense—offensive by setting fires in America's backyard, and defensive by wreaking havoc in the Black Sea, South China Sea, and Strait of Hormuz, enough to terrify the appeasement-seeking West.

 

How to break the deadlock? Only by feigning weakness to induce either China or Russia to initiate hostilities. Whether Russia attacks Ukraine or the CCP's armed forces invade Taiwan, both will fall into traps already laid by the US and the West, struggling in a quagmire of war from which they cannot escape, ultimately being completely dragged down. Once either of the two main adversaries, China and Russia, is weakened, it will be much more difficult for the other to challenge international rules and order.

 

With the departure of the weak Biden and the return of the strong Trump, after overcoming numerous obstacles set by far-left Democrats (CCP proxies), the world's most hawkish team finally resolved to launch a counterattack. Through the transnational arrest of Maduro, they deterred "traitors" in Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil, clearing their South American backyard; through a powerful alliance with Israel, they dismantled branches of the "axis of evil"—Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran—severing the CCP's claws of external expansion.

 

Compared to Nazi Germany, Russia has three insurmountable weaknesses: First, Nazi Germany's military strength ranked first in the world, while the Russian army's actual combat capability has long since fallen to second-rate. Second, Nazi Germany won the time war with its blitzkrieg tactics, while the Russian army's blitzkrieg tactics failed due to information disadvantage. Third, Nazi Germany's strength was enough to take on the whole of Europe, but it lost due to resource scarcity, while the Russian army, although resource-rich (it is an energy powerhouse, with a continuous supply of materials from the CCP), lost due to the generational gap in weaponry.

 

Poor Putin, although he has the ambition to dominate the world like the madman Hitler, how could he have encountered only incompetent allies? Xi Jinping's indecisiveness led to missed opportunities, and Xi's betrayal is a thorn in Putin's side.

 

Desperate, Putin's only way out is to accept Trump's olive branch—to negotiate with Ukraine and then turn to contain the CCP. If the CCP is not destroyed, the world will suffer greatly. Russia's continued ties with the CCP will only lead to its own downfall.

 

(To be continued)