獅山巡禮
投資雜談
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In today’s volatile markets, the instinct to “buy the dip” during US-China trade flare-ups persists, driven by a mix of learned behaviors, robust fundamentals, and technical cues. This resilience transforms potential crises into perceived opportunities.
1. The De-Escalation and Truce Mentality
The core driver of dip-buying stems from the market’s conditioned response to recurring cycles:
? ?Anticipated Political Noise: Investors have normalized aggressive US-China rhetoric, including tariff threats from the White House, as a “new normal” in geopolitical posturing. Fatigue from repeated escalation-sell-off-de-escalation loops has desensitized traders to the drama.
? ?Wagering on an Off-Ramp: Signals of softening—such as a high-level official’s reassuring remark like “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine”—prompt immediate dip-buying. Participants bet that the exorbitant costs of a prolonged trade war will compel both nations toward a truce, or at least a temporary détente.
2. Strong Underlying Bullish Fundamentals
Beyond geopolitics, dip-buying is bolstered by enduring economic and thematic strengths:
? ?AI’s Long-Term Growth Narrative: The transformative potential of artificial intelligence continues to dwarf short-term disruptions. Investors flock to AI-enabling stocks, such as leading semiconductors and chipmakers, even amid export curbs and rare earth supply risks, viewing them as indispensable to future growth.
? ?Proven Economic Resilience: Both the US and global economies have weathered existing tariffs with minimal lasting damage. While escalated measures could inflict real pain, the prevailing view is that macroeconomic fundamentals remain sturdy enough to absorb further shocks.
3. Technical and Behavioral Catalysts
Market mechanics amplify the dip-buying reflex:
? ?Opportunistic Profit-Taking: Trade tensions provide a handy pretext for locking in gains after rallies. When sell-offs push indices like the SP 500 below key technical levels (e.g., moving averages), buyers return, dismissing the downturn as overhyped noise.
? ?Reinforcement from Institutions: Guidance from major banks urging clients to “buy the dip” post-tension cascades through institutional investors and savvy retail traders, creating a self-fulfilling momentum.
Ultimately, US-China trade frictions have evolved in investors’ minds from a fundamental risk warranting caution to a recurring volatility spike that uncovers attractive entry points for long-term holdings. This shift underscores a market increasingly inured to geopolitical headlines, prioritizing structural upside over transient threats.
