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新加坡新任總理黃循財從上任第一天起就麵臨挑戰
https://www.cfr.org/blog/singapores-new-prime-minister-lawrence-wong-faces-challenges-day-one
作者：Joshua Kurlantzick，2024年4月25日
執政二十年後，新加坡總理李顯龍將把接力棒移交給執政黨選定的繼任者，而繼任者將麵臨複雜的地緣政治環境以及黨在國內領導地位日益嚴峻的挑戰。 2022年10月25日，新加坡副總理兼財政部長黃循財在第十五屆新加坡國際能源周上發表新加坡能源演講。2022年10月25日，新加坡副總理兼財政部長黃循財在第十五屆新加坡國際能源周上發表新加坡能源演講。Isabel Kua/路透社
在位約二十年後，新加坡總理李顯龍宣布將卸任，為財政部長兼副總理黃循財將於5月15日就任下一任總理，並帶領長期執政的人民行動黨（PAP）參加下屆大選鋪平了道路。
黃循財上任時具備諸多優勢。人民行動黨已用兩年時間將他培養成其所謂的“第四代”政黨領導人的核心人物，從而也將帶領新加坡走向未來。盡管反對黨在議會中的勢力日益壯大，但人民行動黨幾乎肯定會在下屆選舉中獲勝。與其他一些爭奪李顯龍繼任的候選人相比，黃之鋒是一位更具政治天賦的政治家。例如，正如李顯龍在宣布這一變化和黃之鋒晉升的Facebook帖子中所述，他在新冠疫情期間展現了領導才能。與一些人民行動黨成員不同，黃之鋒擔任過多個職位和工作，這使他能夠更深入地了解新加坡社會的更多領域，以及這個城市國家目前麵臨的諸多國內和地區問題。
李顯龍就任時並非風平浪靜——當時反恐戰爭正如火如荼地進行，新加坡既是東南亞武裝分子的恐怖主義目標，也是美國在全球戰爭中的重要盟友——而黃之鋒就任時，這個城市國家正麵臨著更廣泛的挑戰。在國內，人民行動黨雖然仍然是主導力量，但現在麵臨著一個更有組織的政治反對派，這些反對派不再能輕易地被邊緣化為一個不代表新加坡社會的小群體。反對黨可能會在下屆選舉中增加議席數量，從而在議會中擁有更多空間來監督和批評人民行動黨。
近年來，執政黨麵臨著不同尋常的內部鬥爭，這損害了其一貫清廉的形象，其中包括對（現已成為前任）高級部長易華仁（S. Iswaran）首次提起腐敗指控。他已被指控35項與賄賂和腐敗相關的罪名（且罪名還在增加），檢方指控他收受了一位馬來西亞大亨兼開發商以及另一名承包商的一係列禮物。他的起訴緊隨人民行動黨內部其他問題之後，反對黨肯定會在下屆大選前夕強調這些問題。其中包括去年發生的一起小型醜聞，兩名人民行動黨議員因婚外情辭職。此外，據半島電視台報道，大約在同一時間，“兩名政府高級部長因租賃國有殖民時期的洋房而受到公開審查。調查並未發現任何不當行為的證據，但這引發一些人質疑，鑒於合同是通過招標程序授予的，部長們如何能夠租賃這些房產。”
與此同時，新加坡一直試圖在與中國的經濟關係和與美國保持密切安全夥伴關係的願望之間尋找平衡，如今，與李光耀擔任總理初期相比，這種平衡更加難以實現。中國在該地區的經濟主導地位遠超以往。隨著習近平對私營企業的打壓，大量中國大陸企業家、商界領袖和其他富裕人士紛紛遷往新加坡。新加坡人口以華人為主，環境對私營企業更加開放，而且新加坡一直以來都免征資本利得稅，並提供大量迎合超級精英的私人銀行服務。雖然這筆巨額財富的湧入在某種程度上提振了新加坡的經濟，但政府似乎不確定該如何應對這筆財富的湧入及其對房地產和租金價格、整體通脹以及新加坡本土創業精神的潛在影響。政府也對這些中國財富的來源感到擔憂：去年，政府逮捕並指控數名中國公民涉嫌洗錢及相關罪行。新加坡政府也正在逐漸接受一個事實：
新加坡曆史上微薄的社會福利體係需要現代化和擴展，黃之鋒很可能在李光耀之後繼續沿用這一做法。
與李光耀2004年上任時相比，中國如今在地區海域的侵略性遠超以往，軍事野心也遠超以往。除了菲律賓（盡管中國經濟實力雄厚，但在小費迪南德·馬科斯的領導下，菲律賓似乎在安全問題上明顯站在美國一邊）之外，所有其他東南亞國家（除了寮國老撾、柬埔寨和飽受戰爭蹂躪的緬甸）仍在試圖在地區大國之間進行斡旋。
但即使對於像新加坡這樣擁有財富、強大外交影響力和高素質外交官隊伍的國家來說，在兩大國之間斡旋也變得越來越困難。中國在東南亞各國的國內政治中扮演著越來越重要的角色，或者至少是試圖扮演越來越重要的角色，新加坡也不例外。新加坡高級官員普遍擔心中國會影響新加坡的國內政治，議會也通過了一項嚴格的外國幹涉法。然而，總體而言，新加坡民眾對中國影響力的擔憂遠不及官員，尤其是情報和國防領域的官員。以色列與哈馬斯在加沙地帶的戰爭在新加坡數量龐大的穆斯林少數群體中引起強烈反響，損害了美國在這個城市國家的形象。此外，華盛頓在曆屆政府中都未能在東亞日益增長的貿易一體化進程中發揮任何重要作用，也影響了人們對美國的看法。
包括黃之鋒在內的人民行動黨成員不得不注意到，新加坡精英階層與民眾之間的分歧日益加深，精英階層似乎最擔心該地區被中國主導的前景，而民眾似乎對此並不在意。
黃之鋒必須在短短幾周內應對所有這些挑戰，同時還要幫助人民行動黨為競爭激烈的大選做好準備，並向主要由李氏家族成員領導的民眾保證，他已做好了應對所有挑戰的準備。
Singapore's New Prime Minister Lawrence Wong Faces Challenges From Day One
https://www.cfr.org/blog/singapores-new-prime-minister-lawrence-wong-faces-challenges-day-one
Joshua Kurlantzick, Author April 25, 2024
After two decades in office, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will pass the baton to the ruling party’s chosen successor, who faces a complex geopolitical environment and growing challenges to the party’s leadership at home. 
Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Lawrence Wong delivers the Singapore Energy Lecture during the fifteenth Singapore International Energy Week on October 25, 2022. Isabel Kua/Reuters
Wong comes into the office with numerous strengths. The PAP has prepped him for two years as the centerpiece of what it calls the “4G” or fourth generation of party leaders, and thus of Singapore. Despite a growing opposition presence in parliament, the PAP will almost surely triumph in the next election. Wong is a more natural politician than some of the other candidates who were in the running to replace Lee Hsien Loong. For example, he showed his leadership skills during COVID-19, as Lee noted in a Facebook post announcing the shift and Wong’s elevation. Wong also has held a diversity of positions and jobs, unlike some PAP members, giving him potentially greater insight into more sectors of Singaporean society and also the many domestic and regional issues the city-state now faces.
While Lee did not exactly take office at a calm time—the war on terror was in full form, and Singapore was both a terrorism target for Southeast Asia-based militants and also enlisted as a partner in the global battle by the United States—Wong takes office with the city-state confronting a broader range of challenges. At home, the PAP, though still the dominant force, now faces a more organized political opposition that can no longer be easily marginalized as a small group unrepresentative of Singaporean society. The opposition may boost its seat count in the next election, giving it more leeway in parliament to monitor and criticize the PAP.
The ruling party has faced unusual internal struggles in recent years that have impacted its famously clean image, including the first indictment on corruption charges of a (now former) senior minister, S. Iswaran. He has been indicted on thirty-five charges (and counting) related to bribery and corruption, with the prosecution charging that he took a range of gifts from a Malaysian tycoon and developer, as well as from another contractor. His indictment comes on the heels of other problems in the PAP, which the opposition will surely highlight in the run-up to the next general election. These include a mini-scandal from last year in which two PAP members of parliament resigned because they were having an affair, and, as Al Jazeera notes, around the same time, “two senior government ministers were publicly scrutinized for their rental of state-owned colonial-era bungalows. An investigation found no evidence of wrongdoing, but prompted some to question how the ministers could rent the properties, given that contracts are awarded through a bidding process.”
Meanwhile, Singapore, always trying to hedge between its economic relationship with China and its desire to maintain a close security partnership with the United States, is finding this balance even more challenging to strike than it was in the early days of Lee’s time as prime minister. China is far more dominant economically in the region than it was in the past. As Xi Jinping has cracked down on private enterprise, significant numbers of mainland Chinese entrepreneurs, business leaders, and other wealthy citizens have decamped for Singapore, where the population is majority Chinese, the environment is far more open to private enterprise, and the city-state has a history of no taxation on capital gains and a wealth of private banking services catering to the super-elite. While this massive infusion of wealth has bolstered the city-state’s economy in some ways, the government seems unsure how to handle the influx and its possible impact on property and rental prices, overall inflation, and domestic Singaporean entrepreneurship. The government also has concerns about how some of this Chinese wealth was earned: last year, it arrested and charged several Chinese nationals with money laundering and related crimes. The Singaporean government is also coming to terms with the fact that its historically minimal social welfare net needs to be modernized and expanded, an approach Wong will likely continue in Lee’s wake.
China is now far more aggressive in regional waters and far more ambitious militarily than when Lee assumed office in 2004. Other than the Philippines, which under Ferdinand Marcos Jr. seems to be clearly siding with the United States on security issues despite China’s economic might, all the other Southeast Asian states (save tiny Laos, Cambodia, and war-torn Myanmar) are still trying to hedge between the region’s great powers.
But it is getting tougher, even for a country with the wealth, significant diplomatic influence, and skilled diplomatic corps that Singapore possesses, to hedge between the two powers. China is playing a larger role, or at least attempting to play a larger role, in the domestic politics of every state in Southeast Asia, and Singapore is no exception. Growing worries about Chinese influence within Singapore’s domestic politics are common among senior Singaporean officials, and parliament has passed a tough foreign interference law. Yet the population overall seems far less concerned about this kind of Chinese influence than officials, especially those in the intelligence and defense realms. The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, which resonates among Singapore’s sizable Muslim minority, hurts the United States’ image in the city-state. Further, Washington’s inability through multiple administrations to play any significant role in East Asia’s growing trade integration has also impacted perceptions of the United States.
The PAP, including Wong, cannot help but notice that there is a growing divide between Singaporean elites, who seem most concerned about the prospect of a region dominated by China, and the populace, which seems relatively unbothered by this scenario.
Wong will have to navigate all these challenges in just a few weeks while also preparing the PAP for a contested general election and reassuring the public, which has mostly been led by members of the Lee family, that he is ready on all these fronts.
