風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
馬凱碩 西方不理解中國
與馬凱碩教授一起探索世界
Zoom the World with prof. Kishore Mahbubani
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqPTpopOG58
Ma?gorzata Bonikowska，博士
華沙大學國際關係中心主席，講師
專業領域：歐盟、歐盟外交與安全政策、歐洲全球戰略
Ma?gorzata Bonikowska 擁有人文學科博士學位，專攻國際關係（尤其側重於歐盟）和公共機構傳播。她是歐盟專家、政府顧問和學術研究員，畢業於華沙大學（意大利研究）、巴黎索邦大學（曆史與政治學）和波蘭國立戲劇學院（PWST）文化史專業。擁有兩屆博士學位。項目：Bonikowska博士曾在波蘭（波蘭科學院）和國外（意大利SSSS）學習，並在紐約哥倫比亞大學國際與公共事務學院（SIPA）完成了專業課程（富布賴特獎學金）。她著有150多部出版物，並指導過100多篇本科、碩士和研究生論文。
在本視頻中，前新加坡外交官馬凱碩（Kishore Mahbubani）解釋了西方為何對中國的崛起和意圖存在根本性誤解。他認為，許多西方領導人仍陷於冷戰思維，未能理解中國獨特的發展道路和全球視野。馬凱碩挑戰了西方普遍將中國視為威脅的敘事，並呼籲人們采取更平衡、更現實的視角。如果您想了解一個超越常規新聞報道、發人深省的中國視角，那麽這部影片不容錯過。<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>
Ma?gorzata Bonikowska
您如何描述世界正在發生的這種轉變？
Kishore Mahbubani
毫無疑問，權力正在從西方轉向東方，亞洲大國和歐洲大國的相對位置也發生了顯著變化。首先，我想舉一個數據：1980年，歐盟的GDP總量是中國的10倍；而今天，歐盟的GDP總量與中國相當；到2050年，歐盟的GDP總量將隻有中國的一半。因此，歐盟的GDP總量從中國的10倍下降到中國的一半，這表明權力正在急劇向亞洲轉移。但與此同時，美國經濟表現良好，仍然是世界最大經濟體。2000年，美國經濟是中國的8倍；而現在，美國經濟隻有中國的1.5倍。所以，即使中美之間的相對關係已經發生了變化，我完全同意你的觀點，美國經濟與歐洲經濟不同，表現良好，並且增長穩健。但如果你讓我預測，到2050年，中國經濟仍將超過美國經濟。但是當我們討論亞洲時，你又從中國開始，為什麽你沒有看到亞洲有其他強國，為什麽一定是中國？嗯，你說得完全正確，實際上我相信亞洲未來的增長將來自新的中央情報局國家。中央情報局不是中央情報局的縮寫，而是中國、印度和東盟。順便說一下，東盟是東南亞國家聯盟。中國、印度和東盟將成為亞洲增長的主要驅動力。你知道，如果你看看中央情報局國家有35億人，而在2000年，這35億人中，隻有1.5億人享受著中產階級的生活水平。到2020年，這個數字將激增10倍，達到15億。到2030年，在中情局國家中，可能會有25億到30億人享受中產階級的生活水平。所以你可以看到，增長故事是多麽的驚人，不僅限於中國，還涵蓋了印度和東南亞。中國是世界上最古老的連續文明，已有4000到5000年的曆史。中國與亞洲的聯係至少可以追溯到2000年前。因此，沙特阿拉伯、中國和印度之間有著悠久的曆史關係。可能會讓你的觀眾或聽眾感到驚訝的是，在東盟十國中，東南亞國家中有9個以印度為基礎，一個以漢族為基礎。因此，從文化上講，東南亞國家與印度的關係比與中國的更密切。但今天，中國在東南亞的影響力要大得多。事實上，2000年中國與東南亞的貿易額隻有400億美元，但到2020年，數字呃已經達到了 9750 億美元，你能想象從 2000 年的 400 億美元增加到 2022 年的 9750 億美元嗎？這太神奇了，太神奇了，這對你來說意味著什麽？你不覺得這是一種支配關係，而不是友好關係嗎？呃，不，你知道，呃，不像 E歐洲不知道如何管理其周邊大國，我們設法與周邊大國保持良好關係，你知道，我敢肯定你聽說過越南，你知道越南與中國有著非常悠久的關係，順便說一下，越南被中國占領了1000年，對吧，越南人了解中國，你知道他們在越南說什麽，他們說要成為越南的領導人，你必須能夠對抗中國，你必須能夠與中國相處，但這在實踐中意味著什麽，一個小新加坡或大得多的越南，你如何看待與這個巨人的正確關係，我們有，我們有，我可以告訴你，到目前為止，良好的關係，中國的增長使東盟國家也得到了增長，讓我給你另一個統計數據，在2000年，呃，日本的經濟，你之前提到日本是東盟經濟的八倍，現在日本隻大1.3倍，到2030年，東盟將比日本大，你知道歐洲人必須明白的是，亞洲國家普遍奉行務實主義文化。我們不會高調宣揚，不會發表演講，也不會聲稱要拯救世界，但我們的表現比世界上任何其他地區都要好。所以，歐洲人很難接受他們現在應該開始向亞洲學習，但實際上，現在是時候讓歐洲人像亞洲國家一樣務實了。因為如果歐洲不務實，歐洲的未來將非常艱難。從歐洲的角度來看，務實是什麽意思？對中國來說，不僅僅是對中國，更重要的是，歐洲需要製定一個全麵的長期戰略，確定未來10到20年或30年歐洲麵臨的最大威脅和機遇。而歐洲麵臨的最大威脅將來自非洲的人口爆炸。1950年，非洲的人口是歐洲的一半。今天，非洲的人口是歐洲的2.5倍。到2100年，非洲人口將是歐洲的10倍。所以你們應該把戰略重點放在如何發展非洲上。盡管中國在非洲的投資正在為非洲人創造就業機會，並讓非洲人留在非洲，但歐洲人不但沒有向中國發送感謝信，感謝中國在非洲的投資，反而和美國一起批評中國在非洲的投資，因為這違背了你們自己的利益。你們不切實際，你們犧牲了自己的利益，這很奇怪。你們為什麽要這樣做？亞洲人看看亞洲人，看看歐洲，然後說，100年前，這片大陸可以統治世界，對吧？我的意思是，我知道歐洲國家……波蘭沒有殖民任何國家，但你知道，英國人、荷蘭人、……法國人，呃，比利時人殖民了世界，而今天的歐洲連自己都照顧不好，這非常非常奇怪。所以我認為歐洲人需要做的是……變得更加謙虛和謙遜，問問自己是否……在向你們學習的過程中，東盟可以學習世界其他地區的經驗教訓，學習如何管理事務。我仍然不明白你們如何對更大的國家，尤其是中國和印度，采取這種務實的態度。那麽，你們如何融入這些國家的雄心壯誌呢？印度可能與中國不同。中國已經有一段時間表現出強烈的野心，想要在該地區占據主導地位。你們如何處理這個問題？我必須強調，東盟不僅在中國和印度之間別無選擇，而且與美國關係密切。讓我給你們一個令人震驚的統計數據：中國經濟規模遠大於東盟經濟。日本經濟仍然大於東盟經濟。韓國經濟規模不大，但印度經濟規模與東盟相當。你們知道嗎？美國在東南亞的投資比在中國、日本、韓國和印度的投資總和還要多。這並不令人震驚。那麽歐洲在哪裏？為什麽？美國在東南亞的投資比中國、日本、韓國和印度的總和還要多，而歐洲的投資卻沒有那麽多，所以我的意思是，你必須了解亞洲的複雜性，我們知道如何與這些大國打交道，順便說一下，我們與日本的關係也非常密切，你會感到驚訝，所以你必須學會??與許多不同的大國打交道的藝術，這些大國雖然彼此不同，但也要有歐洲人必須學習的那種老練和細膩，因為你用非常黑白的眼光看待這個世界，世界正在變得越來越複雜，你知道，我說世界的未來將是一個多文明、多極化、多邊的世界，你知道嗎？世界上最好的多文明實驗室是東南亞，你可以在東南亞找到所有主要文明，但在歐洲找不到它們，歐洲隻有一種文明，所以你必須進入歐洲，現在你必須改變主意，進入一個多文明的世界，你知道學習處理不同文明的最佳地點是東南亞，所以這很令人驚訝，歐洲對這個地區普遍如此無知。
Zoom the World with prof. Kishore Mahbubani
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqPTpopOG58
Ma?gorzata Bonikowska, PH.D.
President, President, Center for international Relations, lecture at the University of Warsaw
Specialisation: European Union, EU foreign and security policy, European global strategy
Ma?gorzata Bonikowska has a Ph.D. in humanities and she specializes in international relations (with particular emphasis on the European Union) and communication in public institutions. EU expert, government consultant and academic fellow, graduated from the Warsaw University (Italian studies), University of Paris-Sorbonne (history and political sciences) and the PWST (State College of Theatre) in culture history. Alumnus of two Ph.D. programs: in Poland (Polish Academy of Sciences) and abroad (SSSS, Italy), dr Bonikowska completed a specialization program at the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at the Columbia University in New York (Fulbright Scholarship). She is the author of more than 150 publications and tutor of over 100 BA, MA and post-graduated thesis.
In this video, former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani explains why the West is fundamentally mistaken about China’s rise and intentions. He argues that many Western leaders are stuck in a Cold War mindset, failing to understand China’s unique development path and global vision. Mahbubani challenges the common Western narrative that sees China as a threat, urging instead for a more balanced and realistic view. If you want a fresh, thought-provoking perspective on China that goes beyond the usual headlines, this is a must-watch.
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Ma?gorzata Bonikowska
how would you describe this shift which is which is going on in the world？
Kishore Mahbubani
well there's no question whatsoever that power is shifting from west to east and the relative positions of Asian powers and European powers have changed significantly so let me begin with one statistic in the year 1980 the combined GMPP of the European Union was 10 times bigger than China 10 times today the European Union is about the same size as China and by 2050 European Union will be half the size of China so for the European Union to go from being 10 times bigger than China to becoming half the size of China is an indication of how power is shifting dramatically to Asia but in the same time the US economy is doing very well it is still the largest world economy well the United States economy was eight times bigger than uh the Chinese economy in the year 2000 now it is only 1.5 times bigger so even with the in the relativity between US and China has changed of course but I completely agree with you that the American economy unlike the European economy has done well and has grown solidly also but if I if you ask me to make a prediction I would say by 2050 the Chinese economy will still be bigger than the American economy but when we discuss Asia you again start with China why don't you see any other power in Asia why only has to be China well you're absolutely right actually I believe that the future growth uh in Asia is going to come from the new CIA countries uh CIA doesn't stand for Central Intelligence Agency cia stands for China India and ASEAN and China India and ASEAN asean by the way is the association of Southeast Asian nations China India ASEAN will be the main drivers of growth uh in Asia and you know if you look at the uh you know there are 3.5 billion people in the CIA countries out of these 3.5 billion people in the year 2000 there were only 150 million people enjoying middle class living standards in the year 2000 by 2020 the number had exploded 10 times to 1.5 billion and by 2030 there might be 2.5 to three billion people enjoying middle class living standards in the CIA countries so you can see how dramatically the growth story is beyond China it also covers India and Southeast Asia too uh China has been the is the world's oldest continuous civilization four to 5,000 years and China's links with Soua Asia go back at least 2,000 years so there are long historical relationships between Saudi Asia and China and by the way also with India and something that may surprise uh your your viewers or listeners uh is that among of the 10 ASEAN countries Southeast Asian countries nine have an Indic base and one has a synic base so culturally the Southeast Asian countries are closer to India than they are to China but today definitely uh China's influence in in Southeast Asia is much greater in fact the China's trade with Southeast Asia in the year 2000 was only $40 billion but by 2020 that number uh had reached $975 billion can you imagine going from $40 billion in to the year 2000 to $975 billion in actually in 2022 and that's amazing right an amazing so what does it mean for you what don't you see that that's a domination instead of friendly relationship uh no well it's you know uh unlike Europe which doesn't know how to manage its neighboring great powers we have managed to enjoy good relations with our neighboring great powers and you know I'm sure you heard of Vietnam you know Vietnam has had a very long relationship with China and and Vietnam has been by the way Vietnam was um occupied by China only for 1,000 years right the Vietnamese understand China you know what they say in Vietnam they say that to become the leader of Vietnam you must be able to stand up to China and you must What does it mean what does and you must be able to get along with China but what does it mean in practice how how a little Singapore or much larger Vietnam how you see the right relationship with this giant well we have I we have I can tell you as of now excellent relations China's growth has enabled the AEAN countries to also grow let me give you another statistic in the year 2000 uh Japan's economy you mentioned Japan earlier was eight eight times bigger than ASEAN's economy now Japan is only 1.3 times bigger by 2030 ASEAN will be bigger than Japan you know so what what what Europeans got to
understand is that there's a culture of pragmatism in among Asian countries we
don't we don't make loud statements we don't give speeches we don't claim we're
going to save the world but we just perform better than any other region in
the world so you know there the the the Europeans will find it difficult to accept the idea that they should now begin to learn lessons from Asia but actually the time has come for Europeans to learn to be as pragmatic as Asian countries because if Europe if the if Europe does not become pragmatic it will have a very difficult future ahead for Europe what do you mean to be pragmatic uh from the European side visav China oh not just visi China visi it's important for Europe to work out a comprehensive long-term strategy of what are the biggest threats and opportunities for Europe over the next 10 to 20 years or 30 years and the biggest threat to Europe is going to come from the demographic explosion in Africa right in the year 1950 Africa's population was half that of Europe today Africa's population is two and a half times the size of Europe by 2100 Africa's population will be 10 times the size of Europe so you should focus your strategic sites on how you develop Africa and here even though Chinese investment in Africa is creating jobs for Africans and keeping Africans in Africa the Europeans instead of sending a thank you note to China for saying thank you China for investing in Africa you are joining the United States in criticizing Chinese investment in Africa when it is against your own interest you're being unpragmatic you're sacrificing your own interest which is bizarre why are you
doing that and Asians look at Asians look at Europe and say this 100 years ago this continent could run the world right i mean the European countries I know
Poland didn't colonize any countries but you know the British the Dutch the
French uh the Belgians they colonize the world and today Europe can't take care
of itself which is a very very strange so I think what Europeans need to do is
to become a bit more humble and modest and ask itself whether it can learn
lessons from other parts of the world on how to manage things during this process of learning from you i still don't understand how you have this pragmatic
approach towards much bigger countries especially China but also India so in
what way you fit into the uh ambitions of these countries india maybe it's
different than China china it has been a while it's projecting very strong
ambition to dominate in the region how do you handle this well you know I must
emphasize to you that ASEAN doesn't just doesn't have choice with China and India it also has very close ties with the United States of America and one let me
give you one statistic that will shock you okay the Chinese economy much bigger
than ASEAN's economy japan's economy is still bigger than AEAN's economy south Korea is you know not not not not that big but Indian economy same size as ASEAN do you know that the United States of America has invested more in Southeast Asia than it has in China Japan South Korea and India combined h isn't that shocking so where is Europe why is the United States of America investing more in Southeast Asia than China Japan South Korea and India combined and Europe is not here so this is what I mean you got to understand the complexity of Asia we we know how to handle the giants we we have by the way also very close relations with Japan you'll be astonished so you know you must learn the art of being able to handle many different powers who are very different but with a sophistication and a delicacy that Europeans got to learn because you see the world in very black and white terms the world is becoming a much more complex world you know I I say that the future of the world will be a 3M world will be multi-vilizational multi-olar multilateral and you know what the best multi-vilizational laboratory in the world is aan Southeast Asia all the major civilizations you can find in Southeast Asia you can't find them in Europe europe only has a one civilization so you got to enter Europe has now got to change his mind and enter a multi-ivilizational world and and you know what the best place to learn to handle different civilizations is Southeast Asia so this is quite amazing how ignorant uh Europe is in general about this region
