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IMF 調查：尚達曼：我們知道需要做什麽，而且我們必須去做
IMF 調查 2014 年 10 月 12 日
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sonew101214a
長期低增長的風險；今天需要解決明天的問題
結構性改革現在和將來都能帶來回報
改革行動需要政治勇氣
在一次采訪中，IMF 政策指導機構主席尚達曼呼籲各國迅速采取行動，在福利支出、勞動力市場和稅收等領域采取結構性改革，以促進增長並避免長期的低增長。
尚達曼指出，我們今天的真正問題是缺乏中長期信心。“這種缺乏信心會阻礙今天的活動和今天的增長，”他說。他說，結構性改革解決了這一關鍵的信心差距，並以墨西哥和西班牙為例，這些改革已取得有益成果。他說，改革需要一些“政治勇氣”，但這意味著“為人們，特別是年輕人，帶來振奮人心的可能性”。
國際貨幣基金組織調查：全球經濟似乎陷入了低增長、高失業率的泥潭。作為國際貨幣與金融委員會主席，您呼籲現在采取行動——一種新的政策勢頭。這到底意味著什麽？
薩曼：首先，讓我們承認積極的一麵，因為自金融危機以來，我們取得了真正的進展。美國是最大的發達經濟體，是包括我們亞洲在內的所有人非常重要的需求來源，顯然正在複蘇。一些進行了艱難改革的國家，如西班牙，正在複蘇——不僅是因為工資下降和淨出口上升，還因為國內需求正在複蘇。然後，低收入國家正在表現出以前沒有的活力。所以有一些真正的積極因素。
但總體而言，我們才剛剛走出危機的複蘇之路的一半。歐元區才剛剛恢複。我們同時麵臨著新的金融風險，我們必須密切關注。我們還麵臨著長期低於平均水平的增長風險，或者國際貨幣基金組織總裁克裏斯蒂娜·拉加德所說的“新平庸”。這是一個非常現實的風險。
關鍵是，永遠不要把風險當作既定事實。永遠不要把它當作命中注定的事情。我們識別風險是為了避免它們。這就是我們討論的重點。有很多方法可以避免長期低於平均水平的增長風險。
國際貨幣基金組織調查：在會議期間，我們聽到許多來自發達市場和新興市場的官員談論尋找實現新增長的新方法。他們都說結構性改革是關鍵。但結構性改革很難實施，而且好處要到中期才會顯現出來。您如何動員政策製定者現在就采取行動？
塔爾曼：我認為認為結構性改革隻能在中長期內產生效果是錯誤的。
我們今天真正的問題是缺乏中長期信心。這種缺乏信心會阻礙今天的活動和今天的增長。
消費者和企業可能不是完全理性的行為者，但他們確實著眼於未來。如果他們擔心未來，他們就會減少今天的支出。他們會減少投資。他們會減少消費。因此，如果我們想擺脫今天的問題，就必須今天解決明天的問題。
如果我們這樣做，我們就會增強信心，即使在短期內我們也應該看到一些改善。有很多例子。事實上，如果你看看西班牙，你會發現勞動力市場和其他一些領域的結構性改革如何相對迅速地傳導到今天的增長中，這相當有趣。墨西哥是另一個典型的例子，說明結構性改革並沒有要求他們經曆一段很長的緊縮期或長期低迷期，然後才最終走到盡頭。
因此，結構性改革解決了當今世界麵臨的關鍵差距，即信心和信任。通過為消費者、企業和廣大公眾恢複信心和信任，您最有可能擺脫當前的困境。
IMF 調查：我們在這次會議上聽到的統一主題之一是推動基礎設施投資。您如何確保這項投資的效率？
Tharman：這是一個非常好的觀點，它很好地說明了改革不僅是必要的，而且可以帶來真正的好處。在公共投資和基礎設施方麵，引入私營部門的參與不僅僅是為了獲得更多資金，因為政府預算不足。它還涉及關注效率和經濟回報的敏銳眼光。
精心設計的公私夥伴關係通常在財務上更具可持續性，更有可能帶來高效的項目設計和更可持續的運營。我們談論的很多內容都必須超越泛泛而談，進入設計可持續發展的具體內容。
私營部門參與的公共基礎設施建設。例如，在合同中引入標準化和透明的終止條款可以降低投資者要求的風險溢價，從而降低公共財政的成本。
國際貨幣基金組織調查：您希望政策製定者從這些年度會議中得到的關鍵信息是什麽？
Tharman：我們知道需要做什麽，我們需要去做。做這件事需要政治勇氣。但重要的是，它涉及改變政治敘事。
當我們談論勞動力市場改革時，這並不是人口需要做出的巨大犧牲。這是一種為年輕人、女性，有時也為少數群體創造就業機會的方式。這在政治上沒有吸引力嗎？違背既得利益並不意味著違背大多數人。這意味著你正在為人們，特別是年輕人，創造更多的可能性。
IMF Survey : Tharman: We Know What Needs to be Done and We Need to Do It
October 12, 2014
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sonew101214a
- Risk of prolonged low growth; need to address tomorrow's problems today
- Structural reforms can pay off now and in the future
- Action on reforms requires political courage
In an interview, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, chair of the IMF’s policy steering body, calls for countries to move quickly to adopt structural reforms in such areas as entitlement spending, labor markets and taxes to boost growth and avert a prolonged period of weak growth.
Tharman notes that our real problem today is a lack of confidence in the medium to long term. “That lack of confidence inhibits today's activity and today's growth, “ he said. Structural reforms address this critical confidence gap, he says, citing Mexico and Spain as examples where such reforms have shown beneficial results. Reforms require some “political courage,” he said, but it means “uplifting possibilities for people, and particularly, for the youth.”
IMF Survey: The global economy seems to be stuck in a low growth, high unemployment rut. As the IMFC Chair, you have made a call to action now--a new policy momentum. What does that really mean?
Tharman: Well, first let’s acknowledge the positives, because there's been real progress since the financial crisis. The United States, the largest of advanced economies, a very important source of demand for everyone, including us in Asia, is clearly in recovery. Some countries which have undertaken tough reforms, like Spain, are seeing recovery--not just because wages have fallen and net exports are rising, but because domestic demand is recovering. Then the low-income countries are showing a vibrancy that wasn't there previously. So there are some real positives.
But overall, we are only halfway through this journey of recovering from the crisis. The Eurozone is barely recovered. We are facing new financial risks at the same time, which we have to focus on very closely. And we also face the risk of prolonged period of sub-par growth, or what the IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde, has called a “new mediocre.” This is a very real risk.
The point is, never treat a risk as a given. Never treat it as something preordained. We identify the risks in order to avoid them. That's the whole point of our discussions. There are ways of avoiding this risk of a prolonged period of sub-par growth.
IMF Survey: During the meetings we heard a lot of officials, both from advanced and emerging markets, talk about finding new ways to achieve new growth. They all said that structural reforms is a key. But structural reform is difficult to implement and the benefits come much later in the medium-term. How do you mobilize policymakers to act now?
Tharman: I think it's misplaced to think that structural reforms only pay off over the medium to long term.
Our real problem today is a lack of confidence in the medium to long term. That lack of confidence inhibits today's activity and today's growth.
Consumers and businesses may not be perfectly rational actors, but they do look to the future. If they're worried about the future, they curb their spending today. They curb their investments. They curb their consumption. So if we want to get out of today's problems we have to address tomorrow's problems today.
If we do that we lift confidence, and we should see some improvement even in the short-term. There are lots of examples. If you look at Spain, in fact, it's quite interesting how structural reforms in the labor market, and in some other areas, have had a relatively quick transmission into today's growth. Mexico is another classic example of how structural reforms didn't require them to go through a very long period of retrenchment or a long downturn before they finally got to the end of the tunnel.
So structural reforms address the critical gap that we see in the world today, which is confidence and trust. By bringing confidence and trust back for consumers, business, the public at large, you have the best chance of getting out of today's rut.
IMF Survey: One of the unifying themes we heard at the meetings this time was the push for infrastructure investment. How do you ensure the efficiency of this investment?
Tharman: That’s a very good point, and it's a good example of how reforms are not just necessary, but can bring real good. In public investments and infrastructure, bringing in private sector participation is not just about getting more money because it's lacking in the government budget. It's also about getting a keen eye focused on efficiency, and a keen eye focused on economic returns.
A well designed public/private partnership will often be more sustainable financially, more likely to lead to efficient project design and more sustainable operations. A lot of what we're talking about has to get past the generalities into the specifics of designing sustainable public infrastructure with private sector participation. For example, introducing standardised and transparent termination clauses in contracts can reduce the risk premiums demanded by investors, and hence reduce the costs to the public purse.
IMF Survey: What would be the one key message that you would like policymakers to take away from these annual meetings?
Tharman: That we know what needs to be done, and we need to do it. Doing it is something that requires political courage. But importantly, it involves changing the political narrative.
When we talk about labor market reforms, it's not a great sacrifice that population needs to make. It's a way of creating jobs for the young, for women, and sometimes for minorities. Is that politically unattractive? Going against vested interests doesn't mean going against the majority. It means you are uplifting possibilities for people, and particularly for the youth.
IMFC Chair Tharman: Real problem today is lack of confidence in the future.
