不平衡的美國和中國的相互依賴

不平衡的美國和中國的相互依賴

https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300212655/unbalanced/

 

作者：斯蒂芬·羅奇 2015 年 1 月 27 日 斯蒂芬·羅奇是耶魯大學傑克遜全球事務研究所和管理學院的高級研究員，也是摩根士丹利亞洲區前主席。 他住在康涅狄格州新迦南。

對中美經濟關係的獨到見解分析

“通俗易懂……是至少十年內出版的關於美中關係的最重要書籍之一。”——赫芬頓郵報

自 20 世紀 70 年代後期以來，中國和美國經濟一直緊緊擁抱在一起。 盡管這種關係最初是出於互惠互利，但近年來它已經呈現出一種不穩定的相互依存關係，世界上最大的兩個經濟體失去了自我意識，增加了它們以破壞性的方式相互攻擊的風險 時尚。
 
在《失衡：中美的相互依賴》一書中，耶魯大學高級研究員、摩根士丹利亞洲區前主席斯蒂芬·羅奇揭示了當前中美關係的陷阱。 經濟關係。 他強調了當前緊張局勢的核心衝突，包括貿易政策和知識產權的爭端、領導風格的鮮明對比、互聯網的作用、最近關於網絡黑客的爭端等等。
 
作為 1990 年代後期亞洲金融危機的第一手見證人，羅奇可能比任何其他西方人都更了解美中經濟關係。 他在這裏討論：

為什麽美國儲蓄太少而中國儲蓄太多會給雙方帶來越來越多的問題

中國計劃如何通過從外部出口導向型模式轉變為以服務業為新重點的內部消費主義模式來重新啟動其經濟增長模式

美國如何表現出令人不安的缺乏戰略，更喜歡短期的反應性方法而不是更連貫的中國式規劃框架

出路：美國可以做些什麽來扭轉自己的經濟命運，並為與中國建立健康的經濟和政治關係做好準備

  2008 年危機之後，這兩個失衡的經濟體都麵臨著緊迫且互利的再平衡。 Unbalanced 以解決相互依賴的緊張局勢的秘訣作為結尾。 羅奇認為，下一個中國為下一個美國提供了很多——反之亦然。

Unbalanced The Codependency of America and China

https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300212655/unbalanced/

By Stephen Roach    27 Jan 2015 

STEPHEN S. ROACH Writing for PS since 2011

Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China (Yale University Press, 2014) and Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives (Yale University Press, 2022).

 

An original and insightful analysis of the U.S.–China economic relationship 

"Lucid and accessible. . . . One of the most important books on the relationship between the United States and China to be published in at least a decade."—Huffington Post

The Chinese and U.S. economies have been locked in an uncomfortable embrace since the late 1970s. Although the relationship initially arose out of mutual benefits, in recent years it has taken on the trappings of an unstable codependence, with the two largest economies in the world losing their sense of self, increasing the risk of their turning on one another in a destructive fashion.  
 
In Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, lays bare the pitfalls of the current China-U.S. economic relationship. He highlights the conflicts at the center of current tensions, including disputes over trade policies and intellectual property rights, sharp contrasts in leadership styles, the role of the Internet, the recent dispute over cyberhacking, and more.
 
A firsthand witness to the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, Roach likely knows more about the U.S.-China economic relationship than any other Westerner. Here he discusses: 

• Why America saving too little and China saving too much creates mounting problems for both
• How China is planning to re-boot its economic growth model by moving from an external export-led model to one of internal consumerism with a new focus on service industries
• How America, shows a disturbing lack of strategy, preferring a short-term reactive approach over a more coherent Chinese-style planning framework
• The way out: what America could do to turn its own economic fate around and position itself for a healthy economic and political relationship with China

 In the wake of the 2008 crisis, both unbalanced economies face urgent and mutually beneficial rebalancings. Unbalanced concludes with a recipe for resolving the escalating tensions of codependence. Roach argues that the Next China offers much for the Next America—and vice versa.