從美國選舉程序, 論證選舉作弊的可能性

東方明月

 

美國2020總統選舉早已經結束，但Trump及其支持者至今喋喋不休選舉作弊等陰謀論，不斷重複聽證會上所謂鐵證如山的作弊證據，攻擊美國選舉製度，最後演變成了衝擊國會的暴力行為。

任何一個尊重事實的人，隻要在網上認真搜尋，就能發現真相。但是Trump及其支持者根本不願意分辨真相，一概斥之為左派Fake news， 即使是右派Fox的新聞不例外也攻擊。 

下麵我從美國選舉程序, 證明選舉作弊的謠言根本經不起推敲。美國選舉程序包括

1。選民登記：公民，身份證或社安號碼，地址，出生日期等等。
2。身份認證和選區分配：選務委員會認證選民資格，根據地址分配到指定選舉站，每個選票站會有選民該地區的登記冊。美國選區非常複雜，各個候選人選區/中小學和社區學院的學區，和市，縣行政區經常是不重合的，所以同一城市的不同選舉站的選票上的候選人常常也是不同的。
3。投票：郵寄或親自去投票站投票。投票站也可以登記選民，但當場登記的選民選票會放到有疑問的選票箱中，等待查證後再點算。
4。投票：親身投票，選務人員會查證選民登記冊，讓你簽字並注明你的投票狀態後讓你去投票。有些州需要查證你的身份證以防止冒名頂替。郵寄選票都有號碼，一張選票信封上有一個號碼，選務人員掃描號碼後就能連接到選民登記冊上，檢查簽字後放入點票機。
5。選務人員在審計選票後公布選舉結果。如果任何一個投票站選票超過選民登記冊上統計的已經投票的人數，馬上會觸發調查。

下麵我們可以通過邏輯分析選舉作弊的可能性。

1。首先非法移民投票，重複投票，死人投票，偽造選票，等等等等，都是完全不可能的。第一沒有公民身份或沒有住址你在任何地方都不可能登記成為選民，你有一萬張假選票也不可能有任何一張進入點票機。冒充死去母親投票的男子很快就被發現，而偽造公民身份困難之大，眾所周知。第二選票數目超過選民數目在點票過程中早就會被發現並調查。Trump無中生有地造謠。說2020年選民隻有1.4億，選票高達1.6億。事實是剛剛的人口普查中2018年的選民已經接近1.6億。

2。軟件竄改數據作弊是可能的，但一定會被人工點算發現。現在所有人工點算和軟件統計都一樣，證明沒有問題。

3。防止假冒別人投票主要靠檢查簽字，這並不可靠所以說可能作弊。但你必須知道對方是登記選民並保證沒有去投票，模仿簽字不能相差太遠。如果郵寄選票還必須知道對方的選票號碼。所以大規模作弊是不可能。目前查到的一個是冒充兒子給trump投票。另外在德州企圖冒充養老院居民投票的市長候選人，因為選民地址雷同而在選民登記被發現。

4。個別選務人員作弊是可能的，但有兩黨觀察員在場，加上投票程序的各個審查，以及重新點票，作弊者也隻可能像人為錯誤一樣，產生小量的誤差，最多是把不合格的選票放入點票機。大規模作弊是不可能的。

4。所有選務人員聯合作弊是唯一可能的大規模作弊的方法。但大規模作弊需要嚴格組織和協作，任何某個人的小錯誤（比如多放少放一張假選票進入投票機，混入其他投票站的不同選票）都會觸發調查導致陰謀敗露。規模越大就意味著越容易發現證據。

要知道大多數搖擺州都在共和黨控製之下，而且選務人員以中老年人為主多是共和黨人。他們居然幫助民主黨人作弊? 而且trump陣營出資百萬征求作弊證據，居然沒有一個共和黨選務人員來領獎? 如果真像Trump指控那樣大規模作弊，還沒有人能發現證據，那麽隻有一種可能性－－－－美國所有司法機關，選務人員，媒體大學企業，共和黨民主黨團，Trump的競選夥伴，自己的內閣部下，都是deepstate，都心甘情願為Biden作弊。笑話，這麽多人反trump的話，選票綽綽有餘還需要作弊？

各種事實已經證明根本沒有選舉作弊，隻有Trump造謠。那些所謂的證據要麽來自無中生有的謊言，要麽根據移花接木的假數據：荒誕到一個也無法在任何美國法庭上自圓其說。可憐到一個也沒能從共和黨人懸賞的100萬中拿到一分錢。

Trump及其支持者首先認定作弊是事實，而後要求司法調查，這已經違背民主法製基本精神。Trump並且以權謀私，利用公權力作弊，強迫司法部門在沒有證據的情況下展開調查。但在司法部法院FBI都已經多次調查得出沒有作弊的結論，Trump還是要求繼續調查。這證明他要的根本不是調查，而是要求承認他選舉作弊的謊言。

各種事實已經證明根本沒有選舉作弊，隻有Trump造謠。那些到現在還相信選舉作弊的人：

要麽就是井底之蛙對美國選舉程序完全的無知，
要麽就是別有用心對美國民主體製無恥的抹黑。

[sor1957]

HARTFORD — A new Quinnipiac University poll says 77% of Republicans believe there was widespread voter fraud during the November election between President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden.

In a deeply polarized nation, 60% of registered voters polled believe that Biden’s victory was legitimate, but 34% do not.

[東方明月-]

sor19572021-01-22 04:32:27
回複悄悄話Here is what we do know:

More than 42,000 people voted multiple times
---------------------
If it is true number, Nevada should recount and even vote again.

However Nevada independence, the major newspaper, have investigated this data and found no base at all.

Just like other claim from Trump, this one is based on fake data.

All election fault claimed by you are impossible to be executed in Nevada, other than non-residents voters with 2nd house in Nevada. But total number of these voter will not change the result.

[sor1957]

3:17 a.m. ET, January 7, 2021
The House just rejected an objection to Pennsylvania's electoral vote
From CNN's Kristin Wilson

The House voted to reject an objection to throw out Pennsylvania's Electoral College votes for President-elect Joe Biden. The challenge failed by a vote of 282-138.

The measure was also dismissed in the Senate, with a 92-7 vote tally.

[sor1957]

Wisconsin: President Trump's legal team sought to have some 221,000 ballots disqualified that were cast in the state's two most heavily Democratic counties — Dane and Milwaukee.

At issue were incomplete absentee ballot envelopes where clerks filled in missing information, as well as those that were issued without a proper request, and still others that were the subject of ballot harvesting.

In a narrow 4-3 ruling, the Wisconsin Supreme Court rejected the challenge, claiming the campaign was "not entitled to the relief it seeks."

The campaign filed its petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday.

Only 20,682 votes separate Trump and Biden in the Badger State, 0.61%.

One can hardly say this is a "baseless" claim, and pure reason has many people suspicious.

[sor1957]

Here is what we do know:

Nevada: The Silver State rushed a universal vote-by-mail measure through the legislature in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The bill, known as AB 4, lacked safeguards to assure voter identity and was implemented without cleaning voter rolls of deceased voters, those who had moved, or who had become ineligible to vote.

Attorney Jesse Binnall testified before the Senate Homeland Security Committee on Dec. 16 as to what resulted.

He had proof of nearly 90,000 fraudulent or improper votes that were cast, including instances where:

More than 42,000 people voted multiple times.
At least 1,500 people listed as "dead" voted.
More than 19,000 non-residents voted.
In excess of 8,000 people cast mail-in votes from non-existent addresses.
Over 15,000 votes were cast from commercial or vacant addresses.
Nearly 4,000 non-citizens voted.
Considering Biden took Nevada by 33,596 votes, these allegations are serious.