熱愛是保持年輕的秘訣 --- 梅耶.馬斯克(馬斯克母親)

一個成功的投資者,85%歸功於正確的資產配置,10%來自於選擇投資目標的功力,5%必須靠上帝的保佑。--威廉·夏普
現代文明的本質並非政治製度,而是自由市場經濟與現代科學技術的結合。-- 李錄
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John Bogle: Economics + Emotions => Market Returns

(2019-03-10 12:24:20) 下一個

讀完了John Bogle 在 June 26, 2002 在 Morninstar 的演講。

主題就是:RTM (reversion to the mean).  意思是說,所有的投資策略,最後都會回歸到“市場均值”。

所以不要白費力氣了!就投資在INDEX 或者 TOTAL MARKET INDEX。

摘一些警句:

1.  Economics (booms/busts) + emotions (greed/fear)  =shapes=> market returns

2.  Economics is reflected in investment return (earnings and dividends), emotions are reflected in the speculative return (the impact of changing price-to-earnings ratios). During the past century, the real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) investment return was 6.5%, accounting for the lion's share of the market's 6.6% real return, with speculative returns contributing just 0.1%. Clearly, the cumulative investment return is the piper that plays the tune, with earnings and dividends climbing year after year—sometimes faster, sometimes slower, sometimes even falling. While stock market returns dance assiduously to the investment tune, but periodically move above or below, seemingly independently. But the iron law of investing is apparent: In the short run, speculative return drives the market. In the long run, investment return is all that matters.

文章最後的advice:

It occurs to me that the best advice I can leave you with today came in my first book, written ten years ago. It was a Caveat Emptor entitled, "This Too Shall Pass Away," the advice given to an Eastern monarch that would be "true and appropriate in all times and situations." I described it as wise advice for investors in the financial markets, who "feel richer when the market rises and poorer when it declines . . . although the underlying value of the business enterprises that comprise the market may have changed not a whit." I cautioned investors not to give way to a bull market atmosphere and become infected with the enthusiasm and greed of the great public, any more than you should give way to a bear market atmosphere and become infected with the negativism and fear displayed by the great public. Your success in investing, I wrote, "will depend on your ability to realize, at the heights of ebullience and the depths of despair alike that 'This too shall pass away.'"

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