Good Strategy Bad Strategy (Book)

這本書裏講的五個人類誤判：

1. 'engineering overreach' （對係統缺陷的無知）- systems whose defects designers didn't understand until it was too late;

2. the 'smooth-sailing fallacy' （風險悄悄逼近）- 'the assumption that a lack of recent tremors and storms means there is no risk';

3. 'risk-seeking incentives' （無損冒險）- Rumelt notes that the bail-outs of New York City (1975), Continental Illinois Bank (1984), and Long-Term Capital Management (1998) served to encourage people to take huge risks because, if the risks paid off, they got fabulously wealthy, and if they didn't, society stomached the loss. 'Privatize the gain, socialize the loss'. Others would call such policy 'moral hazard';

4. 'social herding' （群羊效應；人雲亦雲）- wherein everyone is doing more or less the same thing, so it seems normal, mutually self-reinforcing, and risk-free. . .until the bottom falls out; and

5. what Rumelt labels 'the inside view' （自視過高）- he cites the fact that talking on one's cell phone while driving multiplies the likelihood of an accident by 5 times, yet drivers do it anyway, secure in the misbegotten belief that those sobering statistics 'don't apply to me because I'm a good driver'.

造成"Bad Strategy" 原因：

1. "Fluff（吹噓）Fluff is a form of gibberish masquerading as strategic concepts or arguments. It uses 'Sunday' words (words that are inflated and unnecessarily abstruse) and apparently esoteric concepts to create the illusion of high-level thinking.

2. "Failure to face the challenge. Bad strategy fails to recognize or define the challenge. When you cannot define the challenge, you cannot evaluate a strategy or improve it." [WDM note: He deals with defining the challenge in Chapter 5, 'The Kernel of Good Strategy.']

3. "Mistaking goals for strategy. Many bad strategies are just statements of desire rather than plans for overcoming obstacles.

4. "Bad strategic objectives. A strategic objective is set by a leader as a means to an end. Strategic objectives are 'bad' when they fail to address critical issues or when they are impracticable."

'strategy kernel' （戰略的內核）

1. a 'Diagnosis' that defines the nature of the problem;

2. a 'Guiding Policy' for determining whether an idea for dealing with the problem holds water; and

3. 'Coherent Actions' that implement the guiding policy.