最近,美國科羅拉多舉行了“阿斯彭思想盛宴”(Aspen Ideas Festival ),各界聞人紛紛暢所欲言,各抒己見。其中,賓夕法尼亞大學華頓商學院特立獨行的沃爾夫斯教授一番話,對美國的經濟政策和國會政黨的生態,作了一個有趣、而且深入淺出的注解。美國上星期五發布的6月份的新增就業崗位隻有1.8萬個 — 這是過去9個月裏最低的數據,6月份的失業率上升到9.2%。考慮到這些數據,沃爾夫斯的分析很有意思。沃爾夫斯說:
“我們正在處於一種奇怪的形勢當中。美國政治和經濟生活的常態是:國會參眾兩院裏有一幫白癡。這些白癡常常會製訂出一些愚蠢的宏觀經濟政策。在正常的情況下,美聯儲可以(通過調整利率)輕而易舉地糾正這些愚蠢的政策。但是,美國目前不處於“正常”的狀態 — 短期國債利率已經接近於零。也就是說,美聯儲主席伯南克已經束手無策(不可能把利率降到負值)。在這種“非正常”的狀況下,隻有國會的這些白癡、而不是美聯儲,才能製訂美國的宏觀經濟政策。可糟糕的是,這些人的想法與總統、以及我失業的嶽父支持刺激經濟的想法完全不同。這些人對美國大量失業的情形無動於衷。對此,我感到強烈的不滿。我真無法了解這些人的內心是怎麽想的:當美國目前有數百萬失業人口的時候,他們卻想通過財政緊縮來解決經濟問題!”
[評:沃爾夫斯教授的主張是,此時應該推行赤字擴張政策,先解燃眉之急,即:提振經濟、降低失業率;待經濟複蘇之後,再設法減少財政赤字。通俗地講就是:一個吸毒癮君子,不能立即禁毒,要慢慢來。可話又說回來,有人把一樣東西當成毒品,另一個人卻認為那是一種生活必需品。嗬嗬。]
原文如下:On the “idiots in Congress” and their misguided macro policies (http://blogs.reuters.com/chrystia-freeland/2011/06/30/halfway-to-a-lost-decade/)
JUSTIN WOLFERS: We’re in a very odd situation, which is normally we have idiots in Congress, both houses. And that’s just a norm of political economic life… But normally it doesn’t matter because they can do idiotic things on macro policy and the Fed just undoes it. And the people who are really setting macro policy at the Fed, the problem is the Fed’s at the zero lower bound. Which means the idiots are now making macro policy, and it’s worse than that. Which is Congress has a very different incentive with respect to stimulating the economy than my unemployed father-in-law and than the president. And then, so, you know, there’s a strong bias towards inaction… I can’t see inside the minds or hearts of these people. But to believe that austerity is the order of the day when we have millions of people, long-term unemployed strikes me as problematic.