（本文同時刊載於美國《紐約時報》、《赫芬頓郵報》和香港《南華早報》）
本周，在美國總統選戰步入高潮之際，中國國家副主席習近平訪問了華盛頓。中國是世界上新興的超級大國，而習近平被視為這個大國未來的領導者。此次訪問，意味著兩國領導人在政府換屆之際相遇。美國是世界上最強的代議製民主國家，而中國是最大的一黨製國家。許多人將中美兩大國間的理念之爭，曲解成民主與專製間的對抗，這一錯誤觀念亟需消除。
人類社會的政治史長達數千年，在這一曆史長河中點綴了兩次西方式民主製度的試驗。第一次試驗是古希臘的城邦雅典，其民主製度從公元前6世紀維持到公元前4世紀中葉，持續了一個半世紀，實際上隻能算是一次曇花一現的失敗。第二次試驗是現代西方世界，如果把民主定義為一人一票的普選製，那麽美國民主的曆史是92 年，如果更嚴格地按諸事實，從1965年《選舉權法案》頒布算起隻有47年。這麽說來，美國民主的壽命迄今為止還比不過元朝，後者是中國古代主要王朝中最短命的一個。
既然如此，為何會有那麽多人敢公然宣稱，他們已一勞永逸找到適合全人類的理想政治製度呢？
要回答這一問題，就要追本溯源，回到當前西方民主試驗的精神源頭。當今西方民主的濫觴，是孕育了現代性的歐洲近代啟蒙運動。啟蒙運動的核心思想，可以歸結為兩條基本理念：首先個人是理性的；其次個人權利是神聖不可侵犯的。這兩條理念在本質上都是基於信仰，而非現實的經驗。比如在美國《獨立宣言》中，托馬斯• 傑弗遜就寫道：“人人生而平等……造物主（Creator）賦予他們若幹不可剝奪的權利（Rights）。” 這個大寫的“造物主”是誰？當然就是基督教信仰中的上帝。與此相對應，“權利”一詞也用了大寫，以強調這條格言的神聖性。美國《獨立宣言》中的這一表述，與法國《人權宣言》中“自由、平等、博愛”的信條，一起組成了所謂的“現代性”信仰的基礎，而“現代性”在政治上的終極表現形式，就是西方式民主製度。
在最初的一段時間裏，政治體製中的民主因素促發了工業革命，西方世界的經濟和軍事實力前所未有地突飛猛進。不過，領導西方崛起的領袖們從一開始，就清醒地看到民主試驗中天然蘊涵的致命缺陷，他們想方設法試圖遏製其消極影響。比如美國的聯邦黨人就明確提出，他們希望建立的是共和國家，而不是民主國家。為此，聯邦黨人在憲法中竭力遏製大眾意誌的過度膨脹。可是，就像任何一個宗教一樣，信仰的力量最後總是壓倒規則。民主的結果是公民的政治權利無限膨脹，參與決策者越來越多，參與麵越來越泛。在美國人們常說，加利福尼亞就是美國的未來。這個未來又是怎樣的景象呢？隻有無休止的公民投票、政府癱瘓和財政破產。
對美國而言，這個共和國的開創者們有許多理由來限製民主，例如大眾素質太低，缺乏見識，易走極端。但隨著電視和互聯網的興起，這些壁壘都轟然倒地。歸根結蒂，既然人們都是理性的，擁有上帝賦予的不可侵犯的權利，並且一切知識都觸手可得，那麽他們為何不能參與一切決策？在伯羅奔尼撒戰爭中，雅典城邦由於民眾無限參與政治，導致了煽動家的上台。煽動家西亞比德用慷慨激昂的演說鼓動起民眾的狂熱，讓雅典派出其強大的艦隊去遠征敘拉古，結果被斯巴達所打敗，這次致命的出征成為雅典衰亡的開端。再回到當下，現在金錢成了煽動政治的最大推手。諾貝爾經濟學獎得主邁克爾•斯賓塞一語道破天機，他說美國的民主先後經曆了幾個曆史階段：最早是“一個有產男人一票”，接著是“一個男人一票”，然後是“一人一票”，現在正向“一美元一票”邁進。
無論從何種意義上說，當今美國都隻是徒有虛名的憲政共和國，實際上已經墮落為雅典式的民主政體。被選舉上台的民眾代表們根本沒有自己的主見，其唯一關心的就是迎合一時的民意，好在下次選舉時保住位子。當今信息的豐富和傳播的迅速，都堪稱史無前例，這誘使民眾陷入自己什麽都懂的幻覺。利益集團則從中播弄民意並操縱投票，結果是不斷減稅，提高政府支出，甚至發動自我毀滅性的戰爭。選舉因此淪為遊戲，不同的利益集團都在利用這個製度尋租。民主製度之所以陷入這種惡性循環，是因為這一試驗的深層基因所致，即對個人理性和權利的迷信。不僅是美國如此，歐洲各國也在上演同樣的戲碼。相較於當今風雨飄搖的西方民主製度，古代的羅馬共和國的曆史要長得多，這是因為後者從未自飾為民主，也從無這樣的野心。
因此，西方與中國的理念之爭，不是出於民主與專製的對抗，而是由於對政治製度完全不同的理解。在前者看來，民主本身就是最終目的；而在後者眼中，任何政治製度都不過是工具。美國人普遍相信，民主就是好，而且越民主越好。在美國，有哪位政治家敢對民主提出質疑呢？西方民主已走進死胡同，或許隻有控製民主的泛濫方能拯救民主本身。但在民主製度下，這一調整永遠隻能是天方夜譚。
相較之下，越來越多的中國民眾正在政府引導下參與政治決策，因為這可以促進經濟發展和國家利益，而近十年來的成績也恰恰證明了此點。但如果國情和國家需求發生變化，中國將毫不遲疑地主動調整。在上世紀80年代，民眾政治參與度的不斷提高，有助於當時的中國走出災難性的“文化大革命”的陰影，擺脫意識形態的桎梏。但凡事過猶不及，爆炸性的政治參與最終引起了一場大規模的動亂，這就是天安門事件。
1989 年6月4日，抗議活動被政府的堅決行動平定了。誠然，這次流血事件令中國人民付出了慘痛的代價，但除此之外的其他選擇隻會更糟糕，結果隻能兩害相權取其輕。此後一代人的時間裏，中國保持了政治穩定，迎來了經濟增長和繁榮，並躋身世界第二大經濟體。與此同時，中國在政治上日漸成熟，可以更加積極穩妥地推動政治改革，減少震蕩，避免極端暴力傾向。
在政治意識形態上，美國和中國之間存在根本分歧。前者認為政治權利是上帝賦予的，因此也是絕對的；而在後者看來，政治權利的發展必須建立在國家需求和基本國情之上。
照此來看，今天的美國人與上世紀的蘇聯人並無本質區別，他們都將自己的政治製度和意識形態當作終極目的。中國的崛起之路，恰恰與之相反。就未來的前景看，美國人的道路並不美妙。不過迄今為止，他們還沉迷於狂妄自大的意識形態，一路狂奔，而前方就是懸崖峭壁。
李世默是上海的一位風險投資家。
（朱新偉 / 譯）
英文：
DEMOCRACY’S COMING DEMISE
SHANGHAI -- As the U.S. presidential election shifts into high gear, this week Washington hosts China's Vice President Xi Jinping, heir apparent of the emergent super power. The world's most powerful electoral democracy and the largest one-party state meet at a time of political transition for both. Many have characterized the competition of ideas between the two giants as one between democracy and authoritarianism. This false perspective needs to be dispelled.
In the long history of human governance, spanning over thousands of years, there have been only two meaningful experiments in democracy, as the term is understood in the modern West. The first was Athens, which lasted a century and a half from sixth to the middle of fourth century B.C, - a quick failure, really. The second is the modern West. If one defines democracy as one-person-one-vote, American democracy is only 92 years old. In practice it is only 47 years old, if one begins counting at the Voting Rights Act of 1965 -- far more ephemeral than even China's shortest-lived dynasties.
Why, then, do so many boldly claim they have discovered the ideal political system for all mankind and that its success is forever assured?
The answer lies in the spiritual source of the current democratic experiment. It began with the European Enlightenment, which gave birth to modernity. Two fundamental ideas informed its core: the individual is rational and the individual is endowed with unalienable rights. These two beliefs are in essence based on faith, not empirical evidence. As Thomas Jefferson wrote, "All men are created equal...and are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights." And who was that Creator with a capital "C"? God, of course. To further emphasize the divine nature of the claim, the "R" in rights was capitalized as well. Along with claims such as "liberté, egalité, fraternité", they form the basis of a religious faith called modernity of which the ultimate political manifestation is democracy.
In its early days, democratic ideas in political governance facilitated the industrial revolution and ushered in a period of unprecedented economic prosperity and military power in the Western world. Yet, at the very beginning, those who led this drive were aware of the fatal flaw inbred in this experiment and sought to contain it. The American Federalists made it clear they were establishing a republic, not a democracy, and designed a myriad of bells and whistles to constrain the popular will. But as in any religion, faith would prove stronger than rules. The political franchise could only expand resulting in ever more people participating in ever more decisions. As they say in America, California is the future. And what is that future? Endless referendums, paralysis, and insolvency.
With the advent of television and then the Internet, whatever excuses the founders of the American republic came up with to contain democracy, such as an ignorant public and a lack of information, fall by the wayside. After all, if the people are rational and divinely endowed with rights, and all knowledge is at their fingertips, why shouldn't they be allowed to decide on everything? In Athens, ever-increasing popular participation in politics led to rule by demagoguery. Public fervor whipped up by Alcibiades' oratory sent its powerful fleet on that fateful mission to Syracuse, and its defeat there by Sparta started Athens' decline. Fast-forward to the present, money is now the great enabler of demagoguery. As the Nobel economist Michael Spence put it, America has gone from "one-propertied-man-one-vote to one-man-one-vote to one-person-one-vote, trending to one-dollar-one-vote."
By any measure, America today is a constitutional republic in name only, and an Athenian democracy in practice. Elected representatives have no minds of their own and respond only to the whims of public opinion as they seek re-elections; with the abundance of information and the most efficient communication ever known to man, the public believes it knows everything; special interests manipulate the people into voting for ever lower taxes and higher government spending, even supporting self destructive wars. Elections become the game through which disparate groups seek rents from the system. Such is the vicious cycle that is in the DNA of the current experiment in democracy based on the faith of rationalism and rights. A similar version of the same movie is showing in theaters everywhere in Europe. In contrast the Roman republic survived much longer because it never pretended or aspired to be a democracy.
The West's competition of ideas with China is not between democracy and authoritarianism, but between two fundamentally different outlooks on political systems. The former sees democracy as an end in itself; the latter sees any political system as barely means. It is indeed a commonly held faith in America that democracy is a good in itself and the more democratic the better. Is there a politician in America who would dare say otherwise? Western democracy is inherently incapable of becoming less democratic even when its survival may depend on such a shift.
The Chinese, on the other hand, would allow greater popular participation in political decisions when it is conducive to economic development and favorable to its national interests, as they have done in the past 10 years, but would not hesitate to curtail it if the conditions and the needs of the nation change. The 1980s saw a decade of expanding popular participation in the country’s politics that helped the nation loosen the ideological shackles of the destructive Cultural Revolution. But it went too far and led to a vast rebellion at Tiananmen Square.
That uprising was decisively put down on June 4, 1989. The Chinese nation paid a heavy price for that bloody event, but the alternatives would have been far worse. The resulting stability ushered in a generation of growth and prosperity that propelled China to its position as the second largest economy in the world. As the national polity matures, political adjustments are becoming more sophisticated and pro-active, further narrowing the swings to avoid violent extremes.
The fundamental difference between Washington's view and Beijing's is whether political rights are considered as God-given and therefore absolute or should be seen as privileges to be negotiated based on the needs and conditions of the nation.
In this framework, the Americans today are not dissimilar to the Soviets of the last century in that both see their political systems and their underlying ideologies as ultimate ends. The Chinese are on a different path. History does not bode well for the American path. Their faith-based ideological hubris will soon drive democracy over the cliff.
Eric X. Li is a venture capitalist in Shanghai.
You may deceive all the people part of the time, and part of the people all the time, but not all the people all the time.
-- Abraham Lincoln
民主政治的長處，是不必流血而 self correction in the long term, 能避免長期的大錯。如十年文革，不可能在民主國家發生。短期的大錯，或長期的小錯，民主政治無法完全避免。
專製必然導致體製性的分配不公平，因為掌權者沒有理由少拿。即使有少數有良心的領導想改革，如光緒帝、趙紫陽，一旦威脅到既得利益，也會迅速被權力集團踢開。
中國政治的未來，不是專製，而是中國式的民主。否則脫離不了治亂不斷的怪圈。
“人人生而平等” 根本就是一句騙人的謊言。 人生下來就是不平等的。有的人聰明， 有的人愚笨；有的人俊美，有的人醜陋。 人的任何權利都是可以被剝奪的。 你殺了人， 就有可能被剝奪生存的權利。 你犯了罪就可能被剝奪自由的權利。 即使你沒有犯罪， 沒有殺人， 美國的人一顆炸彈， 也可以輕易剝奪你生存的權利， 不需要什麽理由。