雅歌創作歌曲，股評時事。
遺失在荒漠裏的歌
本周三的EIA石油報告其實並不如表麵的利多，所以可以乘高做空。
本周三EIA的報告裏，原油庫存增加了3.9M桶，可是汽油的庫存減少了4.5M桶，取暖油和柴油庫存減少了1.1M。 表麵看起來，油產品的消耗量加起來5.6M桶比原油庫存的增幅大，是利多。然而這是表象，那一周的汽油消耗量並沒那麽多。汽油庫存減少的主因是汽油平均日產量減少了。加上煉油廠可能為了維護油產品的價格，故意犧牲一周，把庫存減少量挪到下一周合起來報。這樣，一周會比較差，另一周的消耗量會比較多。而市場的反應，隻需要看這表麵上的數據。請看下圖詳細的解說。
如果EIA的報告如俺上麵所分析的，那麽下一周三的報告，利空的可能性就很大。大家將會發現油產品的消耗量其實並沒有那麽多，比原油庫存的增加來得少。加上天氣溫暖，取暖油的消耗量幾乎停頓，隻可能是增加，不會減少。所以俺建議今天可以乘高做空原油，買進DWTI，在136-150元區間買進。停損可以降低到130元。
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美元果然如俺昨天說的，今天稍微反彈了，黃金也下跌了一些，美股市大盤繼續看好。關於黃金，昨天GLD的黃金庫存增加了約6噸，為798.77噸。歐元區央行的負利率政策讓有些機構投資人和散戶認為應該投資黃金保值。當然，歐洲投資人昨天若是買進黃金其實就虧了。昨天歐元兌美元漲了1.8%，而黃金隻漲了大約1.2%。今天美元反彈了0.5%，昨天所買的黃金又下跌了約0.5%。 所以利率低（或負利率）買黃金當保值投資其實是個謎思，有相當大的錯誤。知名對衝基金投資人John Paulson 就是認為美聯儲的QE，降低利率為0.25%會導致黃金暴漲至2500元，所以在2010年就大利買進黃金做多。據說到了去年總共賠了20億美元。
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關於天然氣：
回複 'saltfish' 的評論 : 天然氣現在的價位應該就是到頂了，俺認為天然氣到不了1.9元。目前是1.84元附近，最多就是到1.85元。Henry Hub 天然氣現貨價在1.57元，再過16天（3/29），當月份的天然氣期貨就到期了。除非現貨價提高，否則期貨價必須向現貨價靠攏。
注意：http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-supply-1
回複 'rockyling' 的評論 : 沒錯！應該說4月份的期貨價格。三月份期貨早已結束了。EIA的報告裏的表格有字誤，3月份的應該為4月份的，4月份的應該是指五月份的價格。
03/10/2016
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U.S. natural gas supply - Gas Week: (3/2/16 - 3/9/16) |
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Percent change for week compared with: |
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last year |
last week |
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Gross production |
2.40% |
0.11% |
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Dry production |
2.37% |
0.11% |
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Canadian imports |
-13.50% |
-4.74% |
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West (net) |
1.95% |
-0.25% |
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Midwest (net) |
26.75% |
-20.73% |
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Northeast (net) |
-78.16% |
54.46% |
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LNG imports |
-68.52% |
-82.01% |
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Total supply |
0.96% |
-0.79% |
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U.S. consumption - Gas Week: (3/2/16 - 3/9/16) |
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Percent change for week compared with: |
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last year |
last week |
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U.S. consumption |
-13.5% |
-5.2% |
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Power |
6.8% |
1.4% |
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Industrial |
-6.0% |
-2.7% |
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Residential/commercial |
-28.8% |
-11.4% |
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Total demand |
-12.2% |
-4.9% |
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Source: BENTEK Energy LLC |
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I=（S-D）*7=-57=〉D=57/7+S Let S=80 =〉D=8.143+80=88.143 I1=（0.9921S-0.9512D）*7=（79.368-83.8416）*7= -31.32 LetS=77=〉D=8.143+77=85.143 I1=（0.9922S-0.9512D）*7=（76.3917-80.988）*7= -32.174 My EST =-28 to -40BCF NatGasWeather Dry Production=72.1750BCF（03/03/2016）*1.0011==72.25BCF |
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DUST的鍋底們，我割了大部分的DUST，按以往的教訓，它該漲了。祝大家好運。
我進了一些DGAZ，相信雅歌老師的。
祝大家周末愉快，特別敬祝雅歌老師！
從另一方麵來說，昨天金價大漲時買進黃金的，今天大跌時應該不會賣，否則就虧了。那麽。金價為何大跌呢？美元指數其實後來隻是稍微漲一點，不到0.1%！開始時美元漲0.5%，金價跌0.5%是屬正常。後來金價繼續下跌至1.7%，美元指數隻是漲了不到0.1%，這就不是美元漲的關係了。而是黃金避險的因素消退了。股市漲了，美政府債卷利息漲了，所以金價下跌了。目前金價裏還有70-80元是避險的因素的額外費用在，去掉之後，最少要跌至1160-1180之間。不過，俺認為會超跌，甚至跌破1100元。隻是時間上可能還要在3月底的美聯儲會議後。
同感，加DGAZ 倍倉@23.08.
另外還有一理由，賭場跟旺家一定沒錯，半百老農最近一直都賺，值得跟。嗬嗬。。。
謝謝老師!
Thank you! What is the target for DWTI this time?
雅歌老師，俺沒錢了---DUST一直沒漲，套牢了---哭死----
謝謝雅歌老師！沒子彈了。剛在IRA裏找了點報仇！
U.S. Rig Count is down 9 rigs from last week to 480, with oil rigs down 6 to 386, and gas rigs down 3 to 94.
那應該現在空油了吧
回複 '雅歌1' 的評論 : 關於X（US Steel），俺認為已經反彈太多了，下個財報應該還是虧損。今天應該還是做空（Sell Short）的好機會。可以設14.8-15.1之間做空X。 目標價位是11.5-12。5元，相當於20%-30%。
做原油5-6年了，大賺後做了天然氣大賠。我個人覺得天然氣根本不適合散戶，經常是判斷對了還是虧錢，多少人做它虧精光。我那年大虧出來的時候連死的心都有了。當然每一個人剛進去的時候都覺得自己不會是那個傻叉。
最近的原油我覺得和他們那個會議有關，如果討論不出什麽結果，原油再破30就很正常了。所有油國都各懷鬼胎，估計也就是一破紙協議，私下背後捅刀。
回複 '雅歌迷' 的評論 :
簡單來說，就是每天，天然氣跌了多少 個percent，Dgaz就漲3乘以那個多少個percent。
謝謝小豆，什麽是看空三倍？---哎！我不但菜還笨---
簡單來說，就是每天，天然氣跌了多少 個percent，Dgaz就漲多少個percent再乘3。
謝謝田州吃貨，你一點兒都不菜，菜的是我！
回複 '雅歌迷' 的評論 :
回複 '聽樂' 的評論 : 歡迎光臨！謝謝提供資料！俺會一直做空天然氣到1.5元！DGAZ 34元的目標不變。
既然老師這麽有信心，菜鳥我跟定了---繼續hold住DGAZ--
BTW,菜鳥我一直沒明白做空天然氣到1.5元是何意？什麽叫做空？天然氣是指UGAZ這個股票嗎？但現在隻有0.94元左右耶----上個月老師不是建議止損的麽？
回複 '雅歌1' 的評論 : 歡迎光臨！謝謝提供資料！俺會一直做空天然氣到1.5元！DGAZ 34元的目標不變。
回複 '聽樂' 的評論 :
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfutures/Natural_Gas_Futures/NG
Natural Gas Weekly Update 也已經出來了。
http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/
Data是比較bearish的
請問老師，UGAZ並股對DGAZ有什麽影響嗎？
天然氣現在的價位應該就是到頂了，俺認為天然氣到不了1.9元。目前是1.84元附近，最多就是到1.85元。Henry Hub 天然氣現貨價在1.57元，再過十二天，當月份的天然氣期貨就到期了。除非現貨價提高，否則期貨價必須向現貨價靠攏
ZT:
IEA says oil prices might have bottomed out
By Dmitry Zhdannikov
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices might have bottomed as production declines in the United States and other non-OPEC producers are accelerating and an increase in supply from Iran has been less than dramatic, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.
The IEA, which coordinates energy policies of industrialized nations, said it now believed non-OPEC output would fall by 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2016 compared to its previous estimate of 600,000 bpd.
U.S. production alone would decline by 530,000 bpd this year, it said.
"There are clear signs that market forces ... are working their magic and higher-cost producers are cutting output," the Paris-based IEA said.
Oil prices hit their lowest since 2003, below $30 per barrel, in January on a supply glut stemming from booming U.S. output in recent years and a decision by OPEC to ramp up supply to fight for market share against higher-cost producers.
Prices have since recovered to $40 after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' leader, Saudi Arabia, and top non-OPEC producer Russia said they could freeze output.
The IEA said OPEC output fell by 90,000 bpd in February due to production outages in Nigeria, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, which lost a combined 350,000 bpd.
"Meanwhile, Iran’s return to the market has been less dramatic than the Iranians said it would be; in February we believe that production increased by 220,000 bpd and, provisionally, it appears that Iran’s return will be gradual," the IEA said.
Iran has promised to add as much as 1 million bpd to global supply after clinching a deal with the West in January to ease sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program.
The IEA said inventories in industrialized member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) had declined in February for the first time in a year although crude in floating storage increased.
The IEA said it nevertheless saw global oil and product stocks rising heavily in the first half of 2016 in the area of 1.5-1.9 million bpd but slowing to just 0.2 million bpd in the second half, versus estimates of a build of 0.3 million bpd in its previous report.
"For prices there may be light at the end of what has been a long, dark tunnel, but we cannot be precisely sure when in 2017 the oil market will achieve the much-desired balance. It is clear that the current direction of travel is the correct one, although with a long way to go," the IEA said.
INDIA SUPPORTS DEMAND GROWTH
The IEA kept its estimate for 2016 growth in global oil demand unchanged at 1.17 million bpd, or 1.2 percent of the total 95.8 million bpd.
Demand growth has slowed significantly from the
near five-year high of 2.3 million bpd in the third quarter of 2015, which was spurred by low oil prices, but it nevertheless remains near the averages of recent decades.
"The risks to global oil demand growth are almost certainly on the downside," the IEA said.
It forecast flat demand this year in the United States, the world’s biggest consumer: "But if prices maintain their recent upward momentum there could be further weakness."
China, the world's second-biggest source of demand, will see growth of only 330,000 bpd this year, well below the 10-year average of 440,000 bpd.
"We expect India and other smaller non-OECD Asian economies and the Middle East to provide most of the 2016 growth. The foundations for global demand growth are sound, but not rock-solid," the IEA said.
對於這一周來天然氣期貨價格和天然氣供需庫存這些基本麵背離的原因，這裏的討論似乎主要歸結於兩點。一是炒家炒作，二是散戶撈底。還有一個因素沒有提到，就是這幾天的原油期貨上漲。我看了看過去一個多月來天然氣MM“不按牌理出牌”的幾天，發現都和原油價格急劇變化相關。也許對於天然氣短期價格判斷應該考慮基本麵和原油價格的急劇變化。如果是這樣，DGAZ升回來需要原油降下去才行。對嗎？