2018 (2)
昨天盤後API原油庫存的數據非常利空，導致了WTI價格繼續下跌的主因。
原油今天繼續下跌有兩個原因：
1。昨天盤後API公布的原油庫存的數據非常利空，原油庫存增加了71。M桶，超過了市場預期的一倍，導致了WTI價格繼續下跌的主因。
2。沙特油部長嘴賤，訪問德州時說OPEC不會減產，油價要靠市場自動調節。雖然這是事實，他可以不用這麽說。他其實可以說還在與其它的成員國商討，希望非OPEC國家也能夠減產等等，不需要把未來減產的可能性完全排除，讓俄羅斯，沙特，卡達等四國過去一周商議凍結產量的效果完全消失。（原油每降一美元，沙特原油的收入每天就少了一千萬美元）。
俺認為API的數據有一些高估，按上周EIA的報告，原油庫存增加了2.1M桶，煉油廠使用率88.3%，進口平均7.9M桶。日產量平均9.135M桶。假設煉油廠使用率和產量不變，庫存要達到增加7.1M桶，除非進口增加到7.9M+（7.1M-2.1M）/7=8.61M桶，這進口數據實在過高。好像過去周報告裏最高的平均日進口量是8.3M桶。同樣的條件，若以平均日進口量8.3M來算，庫存會增加2.1M+（8.3M-7.9M）*7=2.1M+2。8M= 4.9M桶。
所以俺認為EIA的報告會比API的報告好，庫存不應該增加這麽多。不但如此，煉油廠使用率照理說應該繼續升高，而不是下降。因為煉油廠休整期已近尾聲。還有48州應該繼續看到減產，而不是增產。所以即使進口增加到8.3M桶，市場估計庫存量增加在3.3M附近是合理的。
因為換成四月份的期貨，目前的價位比三月份的價位高約2美元。所以過去29美元的期貨價位，就是目前的31美元價位。目前跌破了31美元，相當於跌破了過去的29美元價位。這對股市大盤有相當大的影響，歐洲盤目前下跌，美股期指下跌也是因為如此。本來因原油有支撐止跌，好不容易穩定的股市再次動蕩。目前隻能盼望EIA的報告出來後是利多，原油可以止跌回升一些。
所以UWTI俺認為目前可以在1.28-1.35買到，設停損點在1.23。未來幾天的目標是1.6-1.7。
若昨天有買DWTI做對衝的，可以把DWTI在290-300之間賣出，最好是在EIA報告出來前。盤前DWTI最高到299。XX元。
油能夠被操控嗎？ 每次看到大盤被油拖累要崩掉的時候， 石油借著一點消息， 甚至就是謠言， 突然就漲起來， 把大盤拉上去。 有誰在背後通過石油來控製大盤嗎？
?今天大盤和油都突然拉回上攻，究竟是什麽消息或原因呀？
我想雅歌是不會回答你的。到了這個位置，還是耐心等D吧，買U風險太大了。菜鳥淺見。
今天UWTI給搞出來了， DUST也給搞出來了 （買@4.30，SL@4.22 開會沒法盯盤，否則應該不一樣）
我現在也麵臨同樣的問題，進點都挺好的，但總是拿不住，稍微往下一調整，就嚇得趕緊跑，這幾個星期在油上（U和D）都是這樣，看來還得學習提高。
我也是這樣， 止損設的小得話，止損後， 就大漲。 不設止損或止損設的大些， 就老往下掉，割在很低處。
以下是TD的分析，僅供參考。
TD Securities Energy 2016 Outlook
$30 Oil Just Doesn't Work
TD Investment Conclusion
For more details, please see our full report to be released later today. We assume an
oil price deck that is directionally bullish into next year (approximately 40% above
the strip). We have several reasons for adopting commodity price forecasts that are
above the futures strip.
First, and perhaps the most important, is that oil play economics across the WCSB are
effectively zero (at best) at current pricing. Acknowledging that economics across
parts of the U.S. and abroad are also challenged, we believe that producers will act
rationally and continue to cut spending to below-sustaining levels. Using our
Canadian forecast as a directional indicator of what lower spending has on base
production, aggregate volumes could be affected by ±15% by the end of the year.
Next, we believe that most of the negative fundamental and geopolitical headlines —
i.e., the outlook for oil sands supply growth, additions from rising offshore Gulf of
Mexico volumes, and the expected Iranian barrels, coupled with the potential for
softening global demand — are priced in. Lastly, as we have shown in the past, the
forward curve is not a strong indicator or predictor of future pricing.
Meanwhile, since we started writing this research report, the price of oil may have
bottomed on January 20 (up about 25% since). With equities arguably pricing in about
$45/bbl today, we expect investors to have another buying opportunity on a pullback.
We are comfortable with contemplating higher oil prices in the future, but are less so
around the timing of a recovery, given the geopolitical environment. With this stage
being set, we are engaged in trying to provide clarity around how one can invest in
Canadian E&Ps today, to: 1) be positioned for a recovery and 2) not take on too much
company-specific risk in order to be certain that one still owns a going concern if oil
prices remain in the US$35/bbl range into the end of 2017.
Given all of this, we believe that the following themes and items are key for 2016:
? Spending programs trend below sustaining levels in the WCSB
? Conventional oil production declines across the basin
? Slowing improvements in capital efficiencies
? Operating cost structures around fixed and variable (netback impact)
? Importance around capital allocation (dividends versus capital)
? M&A activity outlook and access to capital
? Reserve reports and inventory levels
The foundation for our Overweight sector stance is still very much premised on
prudent capital allocation efforts and balance sheet preservation. We are slightly
biased toward oil producers over natural gas, but highlight pockets of gas
opportunities given our long-term bullish gas outlook.
We are maintaining our Overweight stance and have broadened our investment matrix to focus on companies
that we believe provide relatively low risk energy investments out to 2017. We believe that these names
provide investors with optionality to higher commodity prices but staying power if commodity prices remain
subdued. Our broader thesis remains biased toward companies we see as are best-positioned to weather the
storm of low commodity prices, and are focused on prudent capital allocation decisions around return on
capital (i.e., investment at asset level) rather than return of capital (i.e., dividends).
我的操作有問題，膽子越來越小。
油MM實在是可惡，硬是把我們這些小散甩下了車。
同問。也有相同的感覺。
說得太好呢，特意上來支持雅歌
Second it. 雅歌 is the best expert on OIL. GS should hire him.
Very great comment, I totally agree with you.
you made a great point, btw, your english is good.
非常感謝一早就能看到老師的分析！老師辛苦了！