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歸檔
2018 (2)
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今天大盤的恐慌性進一步減低，即使中國A股大跌，和原油繼續跌，這是好信號。
昨晚A股跌了超過5%，早盤歐股和美股還是微漲，原油也繼續下跌，這是好消息。如果標普500守得住1920支撐，有可能今明兩天連續反彈回測1966。目前開盤賣壓感覺不高，上周收盤前30分鍾，指數連續幾天加速下跌，今天應該不會重演。
道瓊指數開盤時漲近100點，開盤後50分鍾隻漲20點，Nasdaq指數反而下跌，但跌幅不大，更像是築底部。VIX（恐慌指數）下跌，雖然SVXY目前還是下跌，不過應該會變成上漲。
AAPL還是維持上漲超過1%也是有利大盤上漲。
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1/9和1/10日的6-14天氣預報還是維持上周五的利多預報，所以即使天然氣今天下跌一些也不用擔心，應該是獲利回吐。未來兩周的EIA報告天然氣庫存會繼續減少165BCF-195BCF的量，超過或至少維持與5年平均的庫存消耗量相當。所以對天然氣價格有支撐。 上周買進FGAZ的最好今天乘高賣出。
也許1/24日之後，若北部沒有新的寒流下來，南部和東部的寒流會逐漸消失，這一點或許會讓天然氣無法突破2.6元。若新預報出現新的寒流，就有可能讓天然氣達到2.7元。
最新（1/11日）天氣預報轉向利空發展。
正確Spread的做法是空 4月份的期貨，做多明年4月份的期貨。雖然明年的期貨比當月份的價位高很多，在41元附近。可是今年最遲到6月份，當月份的期貨價位會回到42-45元之間，那時，明年4月份的期貨可能在52-55元。
到三月底，市場可能會炒伊朗原油大舉進入市場的議題。
雅歌1 ，能解釋一下 典型的反轉 是如何？ 為啥是典型的反轉。 為啥不是反彈？ 看來你還是看牛？
虛心學習中。
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions
和
http://www.weather.com/maps/tendayforecast
（含有全美各區域的溫度）
不同的期貨在不同交易所。可以去CMEGROUP看
所以俺認為UGAZ在2.4有強烈的支撐，有機會測試3.0元。
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/
Seems like the weather will be warmer soon.
What to do with DGAZ and UGAZ? Thanks.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Thanks. Today UGAZ seems 'zhu' around 2.6. yes. hope it goes up tomorrow.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/calendar
擔心FCX挺不到那時就被信用降級了。雅歌，你說呢？
RSI=28.6
第四天跌出布林區的下限。
原油的RSI也在22.6附近。
天氣（冷）形勢一片大好。今天UGAZ跌了很多。DGAZ也變化不大。明天會往哪個方向走的可能行大？
謝謝了！
NUGT今天下跌是礦業大跌，連帶把金礦業帶跌。美元上漲也是部分原因。但是金價隻是小跌。
http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN0UP14T20160111
請看：
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3800266-freeport-mcmoran-cant-escape-a-decline
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) is trading at just $5.93 a share. We have not seen the company hit a price this low since 1999. There are multiple considerations for Freeport-McMoRan now that the new year has begun, most notably the Q4 earnings report coming up at the end of the month. While I believe it will miss on earnings because of the continued negative effect of the oil and gas assets, we are entering a level that really pushes for new longs to enter because of the favorable risk/reward scenario.
The Negativity Continues
Fortunately, I believe Freeport-McMoRan understands the full gravity of the mess it is in. It has made it clear that it is going to take the proper steps towards positive free cash flow and debt reduction, but everywhere you look it's FCX trading in the red. For example, Macquarie downgraded FCX to kick off Friday's session.
The real problem that current longs need to watch out for is the potential credit downgrade by Moody's. The company's debt is currently rated Baa3 and the next mark is junk - a very negative sign for the future of this company as well as for shareholders. This downgrade will likely be triggered from another significant decrease in the price of copper. Getting downgraded to junk means the weight of $19.8 billion in debt becomes magnified to the public. The rating further hinges on getting the oil and gas assets off the books to stabilize its margins. If the assets are delayed to be sold past the six-month mark that management indicated on their Q3 earnings call, the downgrade would be nearly imminent.