注：這是大千高手nullll的炒股經驗，原帖不明顯，藏在某帖下麵。我覺得很不錯。
this is part of my trading experiences which not including stocks selection,sector rotation
TA trading-top/bottom(5/13) 2006-04-09 06:11:07
Short term top(1-4 weeks):
1. rsi of index such as naz,dow,spy reach around 80
2. macd near previous high
3.k%/d% near 90
4. william r% 0
5. vix near 11/vxo near 10/vxn near 14
6. put/call(5 day ema) near or below 0.6. daily put/call below 0.6
7. most stocks had nice gains, largard/big cap stocks become mkt leaders
time to take profit and short. usually when rsi of dow reached above80, it will drop back to its 50ema in next 1-4 weeks. samething happened to naz many times(sometimes dropped to rsi near 20)
Short term bottom(1-4 weeks):
1. rsi of index such as naz,dow,spy reach around 20
2. macd near previous low
3.k%/d% below 20
4. william r% 100
5. vix 14 or +/vxo near 14/vxn above 18 (usually when vix/vxn/vxo are 15% more than its 10ema, mkt will rebound soon, time to cover short positions)
6. put/call(5 day ema) near or above 1
Mid-term Top (3 months-year):
1. weekly rsi near 80
2.put/call(21day ema) near 0.55
3.vix near 11/vxo near 10/vxn near 14
4.bullish advisors-bearish advisors near 40%
5. naz daily sentiment indicator near 10 or above
usually mkt will drop 3-6 months after that peak. dow dropped 1000points and nasdaq dropped near 330points in 1.5-6 months. many small caps particularly teches will drop 30-50% from peak
Mid-term Bottom(3 months-year):
1. weekly rsi near 20
2.put/call(21day ema) near 0.7-0.8
3.vix near 20/vxo above 18/vxn above20 or 25 9(in extremely condition, vix will go to 60)
4.bullish advisors-bearish advisors near or below 0% (in extremely condition, vix will go to -10%)
5. naz daily sentiment indicator near or below-10
usually mkt will form a double bottom. the second bottom are always lower thna previous one. but rsi will be higher than 1st bottom. the mkt usually can move up 3-6 months after that bottom. dow will jump 1000points or make new high, nasdaq went to new high until rsi of weekly charts reached 80 again. many small caps can rebound 50-100%, good FA stock swill double from its breakout base
TA trading:
from indicator:
1. rsi: buy below 20 in 1st day reversal, sell above 80 in 1st day drop
2. macd: buy when macd begin to move up from very negative bottom, sell when macd drop from very high peak
3. in weak mkt, buy when william R near 100, sell at o, better use candalestick
Pattern trading :
1. double bottom, double price
2. island reversal from top, it will drop 3-6 months.the bottom will be half of its peak. island reversal from bottom, play 30-50% rebound. if the fa is good, and there are many downgrades, it could be a big bottom such as sfcc/nvda
3. Flat bottom breakout: the longer the flat, the more it will jump. some small cap can go up at least 3 months or years. the price may reach 10times from breakout such as boom/ford/ntri/tie/hans..with good ers
4. gap up with good er, the stock will be strong in next 2 months such as nvda/akam/sndk/ma/nvec...... buy in next day pull back, hold to 2 months, from weekly chat to calculate the top
5.gapdown with missed er or low next q's er, many small caps will cut half from its peak and the stocks will be weak at least 2 months before it rebound near next er date. (warning: if a stock has good er, gapped down by high price, it will be a big bottom after 2 months such as gpro near 32, lcav near 40...) avoid warning stocks. the 1st warning usually won't be the last one. such as hlit/gnss....
Moment play:
1. breakout: after a stock consolide 2 weeks/4 weeks/6 weeks or more in a very narrow range, once volume pick up, time to chase/ such as hans near 50/peix near 20. rmbs near 12...
2. breakout years trading range, buy in 1st pull back after big volume breakout. such as able breakout 2, boom breakout 5.....
3. double bottom, 1st day close flat or a small up candale
4. 10/20 ema breakout 50ema, golden cross. sell after 10/20ema all aove 50ema/rsi above 80, then wait around 2 weeks to buy back after it correct below 50ema again(bear trap). then hold to old high or more
5. after a stock already formed a bottom and up some, it will consolidate 2 weeks waiting for macd breakout, the right buy point is when macd will breakout from negative to possitive(these 2-3days, many stocks can jump 10-20%). short when a strock's macd drop from positive to negative, cover when macd at 3rd negative day which many ta books tell you to sell short. too obviousely to short, it usually begin to rebound.
6. 2 weeks cup-handle breakout, 3 months consilidation falt top breakout(target: 2x its range top, usually 1.5-6 months)
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