正文
經濟衰退：又深又長？
來源： 作者：飛人
[丁丁整理：紐約大學商學院的經濟學家Nouriel Roubini認為全球經濟將麵臨恐慌。而有跡象表明，最先崩潰的將是債券保險公司（MBIA, Ambac, FGIC等）。這些保險公司由於房價的下跌，已經虧損了$720億的債權抵押債券（collateralized debt obligations）。
盡管有人認為聯儲的降息會為經濟帶來另一輪升勢，債券保險公司的股票也會因此而反彈。但Roubini相信，降息也無濟於事，這些公司虧損的風險相當大。Roubini就形式的發展進行了預測。
債券保險公司喪失3A的評級。
首先，債券保險公司會喪失3A的評級。到報道時間止，紐約州正試圖注入更多的資本到債券保險公司。Roubini認為，資本注入不能挽救這些公司，而目前，尚未有其他有效計劃來幫助這些公司。因此，這些公司會失去最高的評級。隨後，與其有關的銀行（Merrill, Citi等）的資產會縮水，其實，這些銀行已經縮水了超過$1000億的資產。次級房貸造成的財務損失可能有$4000億，而整個金融係統的損失會超過一萬億。
危機的擴散
接著，危機將會從次級貸款逐步擴散到近優級房貸和優級房貸、商業房地產、車貸、信用卡、公司並購貸款、企業債券及衍生產品。如果杠杆銀行、交易商和對衝基金在國內信貸損失$2000億，他們將不得不拉回兩萬億的借貸。那麽金融損失將擴散到其他資本市場，特別是歐洲。屆時，主權財富基金（Sovereign wealth funds）也無法救市。信貸的危機將繼續擴大。股票、房產、日用消費品、新興市場資本和美元將受挫。Roubini說：“在2008年，現金最重要。”
延長的衰退接踵而來
Roubini認為美國在去年12月開始進入經濟衰退，這次衰退將持續至少一年。現在已經積存了大量未售出的商品（耐用消費品，汽車），而消費者正減少支出，勞動力市場又持續疲軟，沒有新增工作，也沒有增加工資。住宅價格下跌了8％，可能在觸低前下降20％到30％。
影子銀行體係的消亡
綁定表外（off-balance-sheet）業務的銀行就象結構化投資工具（SIV），也就是所謂的影子銀行體係。但是影子係統沒有辦法獲得中央銀行的最後貸款人（lender of last resort ）政策的幫助。因此，當銀行疲於救助他們的SIVs時, 這些持有SIV發行的資本票據的投資人將遭受損失。]
Look Out Below
Robert Lenzner 02.25.08
http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2008/0225/036a.html
If you get depressed easily, don't read this story. Here's one sage's prediction of a long, deep recession.
It may be time to christen a new Dr. Doom. The candidate: Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University's business school. He makes the old Dr. Doom, bond pessimist Henry Kaufman, look like Dr. Phil. No mincer of words, Roubini thinks a full-blown panic will scorch the global economy. He recently laid out his scenario for central bankers in Davos and had them chewing it for hours.
He thinks the immediate spark will be the collapse of bond insurers (MBIA, Ambac, FGIC and others). These insurers have guaranteed $72 billion worth of collateralized debt obligations, now crumbling in value as housing prices fall.
Cheerier sages see an economy lifting off in the second half, fueled by the Fed's rate cuts, and a rebound in the shares of bond insurers. Roubini says lower rates won't help. There are significant risks of insolvency. Here's his prediction of how it'll play out:
Bond Insurers Lose the Triple-A
At press time New York State was trying to arrange a capital infusion for the bond insurers. Roubini doesn't think it'll work, and there's no Plan B--yet. Lacking that, insurers will lose their gilt-edged rating. Then the banks (Merrill, Citi and others) that paid them for protection against default of their collateralized debt obligations will face more writedowns--well beyond the $100 billion that's been written down already. Financial losses in subprime mortgages could be $400 billion and in the whole financial system more than $1 trillion. A big bank might go under.
Contagion Spreads
Writedowns will begin percolating up from subprime mortgages to near-prime and prime mortgages, commercial real estate, auto loans, credit cards, corporate buyout loans, corporate bonds and derivatives. If leveraged banks, brokers and hedge funds should suffer $200 billion in domestic credit losses, they would have to pull back on $2 trillion in lending, according to a Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ) analysis. Roubini says the rest of the world will "recouple" rather than decouple, as financial losses spread to other world capital markets, especially Europe. Sovereign wealth funds will not be large enough to play savior. Credit spreads will keep widening. Equities, housing, commodities, emerging market assets and the dollar will get hurt. "Cash is king in 2008," says Roubini.
A Protracted Recession Ensues
Roubini says the U.S. went into recession in December and will stay there for at least a year. We've got excess inventories of unsold goods (consumer durables, autos), a shopped-out consumer and a growing weakness in labor markets with no new jobs (net of losses) and no rise in real wages. Home prices, down 8% currently, could fall by 20% to 30% total before bottoming.
The Shadow Banking System Dies
Banks got hooked on off-balance-sheet entities like structured investment vehicles, which Roubini calls the "shadow banking system." But the shadow system has no access to the "lender of last resort" support of central banks. When the banks tire of bailing out their sivs, holders of siv paper will have losses.
來源： 作者：飛人
[丁丁整理：紐約大學商學院的經濟學家Nouriel Roubini認為全球經濟將麵臨恐慌。而有跡象表明，最先崩潰的將是債券保險公司（MBIA, Ambac, FGIC等）。這些保險公司由於房價的下跌，已經虧損了$720億的債權抵押債券（collateralized debt obligations）。
盡管有人認為聯儲的降息會為經濟帶來另一輪升勢，債券保險公司的股票也會因此而反彈。但Roubini相信，降息也無濟於事，這些公司虧損的風險相當大。Roubini就形式的發展進行了預測。
債券保險公司喪失3A的評級。
首先，債券保險公司會喪失3A的評級。到報道時間止，紐約州正試圖注入更多的資本到債券保險公司。Roubini認為，資本注入不能挽救這些公司，而目前，尚未有其他有效計劃來幫助這些公司。因此，這些公司會失去最高的評級。隨後，與其有關的銀行（Merrill, Citi等）的資產會縮水，其實，這些銀行已經縮水了超過$1000億的資產。次級房貸造成的財務損失可能有$4000億，而整個金融係統的損失會超過一萬億。
危機的擴散
接著，危機將會從次級貸款逐步擴散到近優級房貸和優級房貸、商業房地產、車貸、信用卡、公司並購貸款、企業債券及衍生產品。如果杠杆銀行、交易商和對衝基金在國內信貸損失$2000億，他們將不得不拉回兩萬億的借貸。那麽金融損失將擴散到其他資本市場，特別是歐洲。屆時，主權財富基金（Sovereign wealth funds）也無法救市。信貸的危機將繼續擴大。股票、房產、日用消費品、新興市場資本和美元將受挫。Roubini說：“在2008年，現金最重要。”
延長的衰退接踵而來
Roubini認為美國在去年12月開始進入經濟衰退，這次衰退將持續至少一年。現在已經積存了大量未售出的商品（耐用消費品，汽車），而消費者正減少支出，勞動力市場又持續疲軟，沒有新增工作，也沒有增加工資。住宅價格下跌了8％，可能在觸低前下降20％到30％。
影子銀行體係的消亡
綁定表外（off-balance-sheet）業務的銀行就象結構化投資工具（SIV），也就是所謂的影子銀行體係。但是影子係統沒有辦法獲得中央銀行的最後貸款人（lender of last resort ）政策的幫助。因此，當銀行疲於救助他們的SIVs時, 這些持有SIV發行的資本票據的投資人將遭受損失。]
Look Out Below
Robert Lenzner 02.25.08
http://www.forbes.com/business/forbes/2008/0225/036a.html
If you get depressed easily, don't read this story. Here's one sage's prediction of a long, deep recession.
It may be time to christen a new Dr. Doom. The candidate: Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University's business school. He makes the old Dr. Doom, bond pessimist Henry Kaufman, look like Dr. Phil. No mincer of words, Roubini thinks a full-blown panic will scorch the global economy. He recently laid out his scenario for central bankers in Davos and had them chewing it for hours.
He thinks the immediate spark will be the collapse of bond insurers (MBIA, Ambac, FGIC and others). These insurers have guaranteed $72 billion worth of collateralized debt obligations, now crumbling in value as housing prices fall.
Cheerier sages see an economy lifting off in the second half, fueled by the Fed's rate cuts, and a rebound in the shares of bond insurers. Roubini says lower rates won't help. There are significant risks of insolvency. Here's his prediction of how it'll play out:
Bond Insurers Lose the Triple-A
At press time New York State was trying to arrange a capital infusion for the bond insurers. Roubini doesn't think it'll work, and there's no Plan B--yet. Lacking that, insurers will lose their gilt-edged rating. Then the banks (Merrill, Citi and others) that paid them for protection against default of their collateralized debt obligations will face more writedowns--well beyond the $100 billion that's been written down already. Financial losses in subprime mortgages could be $400 billion and in the whole financial system more than $1 trillion. A big bank might go under.
Contagion Spreads
Writedowns will begin percolating up from subprime mortgages to near-prime and prime mortgages, commercial real estate, auto loans, credit cards, corporate buyout loans, corporate bonds and derivatives. If leveraged banks, brokers and hedge funds should suffer $200 billion in domestic credit losses, they would have to pull back on $2 trillion in lending, according to a Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ) analysis. Roubini says the rest of the world will "recouple" rather than decouple, as financial losses spread to other world capital markets, especially Europe. Sovereign wealth funds will not be large enough to play savior. Credit spreads will keep widening. Equities, housing, commodities, emerging market assets and the dollar will get hurt. "Cash is king in 2008," says Roubini.
A Protracted Recession Ensues
Roubini says the U.S. went into recession in December and will stay there for at least a year. We've got excess inventories of unsold goods (consumer durables, autos), a shopped-out consumer and a growing weakness in labor markets with no new jobs (net of losses) and no rise in real wages. Home prices, down 8% currently, could fall by 20% to 30% total before bottoming.
The Shadow Banking System Dies
Banks got hooked on off-balance-sheet entities like structured investment vehicles, which Roubini calls the "shadow banking system." But the shadow system has no access to the "lender of last resort" support of central banks. When the banks tire of bailing out their sivs, holders of siv paper will have losses.
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