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Obvious trade are the hardest.

(2008-09-02 20:00:28) 下一個
It was an easy trade that is obvious to everyone and that lies the danger.  What would be a better time for MM to sell the shares to the mass than today?  it was perfect timing. the market showed some life in the past couple of weeks, financial is stablizing. the oil/inflation subdued, and it was a new month and new begining.  and the ordinary people cannot wait to put their money to work after a relaxing labor day weekend.  and of course,  they are taken advantage by those shrewd traders. 

If you have a quick finger or a day trader, you could make a kill in today's session.

For the first time of a long time, the market and oil moved in tandem. the culprit for today is technology.  If we really want to know why? here is my 2 cents.  1). the hangover from dell's earning of last Friday  2). the rise of the dollar actually is detriment to the tech earning.

From a technical point of view, the open high and close low is bad omen in that the september may live up its reputation as most volatile.  also, technology looks broken which is bad for the market overall. If you need a leadership, you have to look at somewhere else.

The good news is that other than nasdaq, nothing really is broken. both SP 500 and DJIA are exactly at their 50 day MA.   Oil is broken, it could go down even more which could help certain sectors like retail, financial (no inflation, thus, interest rate can remain low) and transportation. also,  the SP500 and DJIA seems forming a ascending triangle with higher lows and it draws closer to the end of that formation and we shall know the results of that formation one way or the other soon.

For the time being, our thesis is that the market is trading in a tight range around in its 20 day MAs.  and when it deviates from the 20 day MA too far, it will be pushed back quickly, and today is yet another exhibit A.  
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