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Nasdaq needs attention

(2008-03-03 20:26:35) 下一個

The Armageddon did not come today as many have feared during the weekend, as a matter of fact, the bull actually waged an admirable battle, keep the major indexes virtually flat at the end except NASDAQ, which could be the achille's heel for the Bull.

The market is in a tough spot, the general trend is down, all the major indexes are closer to the low end than to the high end.   The nasdaq is exactly at the lower end, any more downward move by nasdaq could trigger more sellings because it meant the support is broken, and those mechanical trading program will undoubtly add  more fuels to the downward fires.

Looking at the sectors, the picture could not be more bleak.   Except basic material/energy, all sectors are below their 50 day MA,   the financial is one of the worst performing sectors, there is no doubt about that.  But who would know the usual safe heavens like health, utility are almost at their  recent lows.

VIX is merely at 26. although it is far way from "fear" territory, it seems in the rising, a sign of more volatilities ahead.

Commodities have risen to the new high, oil, gold, wheat, any "real" thing worths more as dollar continue to slide.   I remember when Euro just came to being, it cost less than an dollar, last year, about this time, it was 1.3 to 1 dollar, now, it is $1.5 to buy 1 Euro.    no wonder we hear stagalation a lot lately. 

The good news is that there will be no news tomorrow, which could provide a window of opportunities for market to take a pause. 

In the past, when the market approach close to its support, it always finds something to rally, hopefully, it could play out again this time.    Be it a bailout plan for bond insurancer, or a whisper of emergency rate cut.   Having be through some turmoil times lately,  I will not surprised to see the bull will come up with something soon.

Just be careful...
















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