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Marred by Bear

(2008-03-10 20:02:50) 下一個

OK, things got serious when the support is broken, and this is what we got, more downward move with no bottom in sight.   With all that, the market is still not oversold, talking about stubborn market.  VIX is still under 30, so, you could say the selling is orderly :)

All the leaders are taken out: steel, agriculture..  that is the sign of loss of the confidence.  and when the market lost confidence, the buying will definitely recede.

So, Is it  the time that market will rebound, and the chart will look like a sharp V as in victory?

Not likely, IMHO...  

It is more likely that this is going to be a entrenched warfare between the bull and bear rather than a Napoleanic triumphy by the Bull any time soon..  there is nothing in sight to support a uprising market.

No leaders among the stocks...
Earning estimate is down..
even rate cut is deemed too little, the market priced in 75 bps cut, yet, it is almost unanimously agreed by analyst that the coming cut is 50bps...

And actually, it might be the time to sell into the rally...

Anyways, just be careful out there, thing will get worse before it get better ...



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