One day up, two days to go...

Today's gain, albeit encouraging, nevertheless come with low volumn.  There is nothing wrong with this, and it probably is very normal, as big guns are in a holding pattern as nobody like to commit either ways until FED picture become clear.  

Chairman Ben is a man like to surprise, because he believe in"a surprise rate cut" could temporarily support the market. -- he has authored an article on that when back in his academic days (WSJ).  and he certainly practice what he preached, there are quite few surprise cut ever since last August.   Let's see what kind of rabbit he will pull out from his magician's sleave this time.

Today's new home sale number, as bleek as it is, bolster the chance of 50 bps cut as market put that odds at 86%.   Now, the question is that what if the cut is exactly 50 bps, will market be happy?  or will the market sell on the news as last time?

It is no denying that the market trend is down, I would pay particular attention as DOW approaching 12600, if it can break that level and hold above, I would say we are bottoming out.  otherwise, it is the sell to the rally once again.

In general, the market is still in a tough spot, we are more closer to the market lows than market highs.  there are only 1/5 of the sp 500 stocks above their 50 day MA,  VIX is still high. So, a cautious stance is still needed.   It is safer to buy when the market trend become clear, whether that trend is up or down