Fear, where are thy ?

Finally, we see some fear, not by reading DQ, where some people are genetically optimistic,  but in the market.

For the first time in quite some time, $VIX spiked higher, not as high as we would like to see as in the level of last August, but the velocity shows certain degree of panic in the final hours of trading.  Additionally, those stubborn indexes, SP500 and DJIA,  alas, entered into the territory of oversold.

Also, as some traders observed, in the previous sell offs, there were always short squeeze, but today, buyers are simply disappeared..    Volume swelled to the level of yesterday.

However, the market actually opened higher today, as some unsuspected traders, lured by yesterday's mild decline and by the false hope of Chairman Ben's speach, try to bottom fish.   That is exactly what we have warned yesterday.

We have guessed that 12000 for DJIA maybe the next level of support, we are merely 100+ points away after today's sell off.

Ok, what is the next step?  Is this THE bottom?

In my humble opinion, we may need another day like today, then, we can say with high confidence that the selling may abate..

In my original plan, If the pre-market of tomorrow was extremely negative, I will put in some buy orders.  However, the IBM's annocement after closing has threw that plan out of the window.    Nevertheless, it will be a volatile day tomorrow since it is an option expiration day.  I may simply stay sideline watching :)

Look, all these analysis are subjective, you cannot expect them 100% right, plus, it does not matter whether you trade based on FA or TA, you are playing with probabilities, there is no such thing as "sure" thing.  

In fact, finding "bottom" should not be your goal, your goal is to buy when stock rise and sell when stock fail.  As one successful trader famously said: "I have always sold early (before the top) and bought later (after bottom)"

Sometimes, people ask why something happened in the market as if any move in the market has a sound logic behind. It simply is not true. 

Case in point.   today, POT and other agirculture firms (mon, mos, adm etc ) get hammered, yet DBA has gained quite handsomely.   how do you explain this?    in theory, they should go hand in hand, So, they cannot be all right, either DBA or POT get mis-priced today.   and why people not seeing that?   

In this "turbulance time" (sounds familiar :), from the title of a book ), it best remain vigilence.  keep your powder dry, we may not far away from the short rally many of us has hoped for, ever since the dawn of the new year, it feels like a long time....