junqi的博客
just personal musing
正文
It is only fitting that the Bears won in the day of ignominy. After all, what could serve as a better reminder to traders, experienced and novice all alike, that the market is not without risks, and that the road to the sucess is full of perils.
So, the old wound reopened and nightmare enacted,but how much is the concidence and how much is fundamentally driven?
No doubt, the dismay earning from cat, 3m and honeywlll contribute mostly to the Friday's declines. It is reported that this quarter could be the first quarter in 5 years that year-over-year earning growth is negative. If in the coming days, more companys present the same view as CAT did Friday that economy may enter into a recession, the P/Es of the market will be re-priced, which is a nice way to say that the market can go even further down from here. No wonder, there are talks during the weekend that we may see the lows set in August again.
There are still silver linings in the earning front, however. Next week, we will have chance to see how APPLE, MSFT and AMZN are doing. They are all capable of surprising in the positive side, which could turn the tide in the favor of bull. To say that is the last hope for bull is not an exaggration.
Oil could back off as the geopolitical crisis are dissolved thanks to the congress backed off from condemning Turkey, also, the slowdown economy should comsume less energy.
Such is how the drama is played out in Wall Street, there will be good, bad and something in between everyday. If all investors use the same pricing model and value the assets the same, there will no "bid" or "ask" in the market, and the equity will become cash where $1 is $1...
INTC is 3 times as big as CAT, and the revenue from both companys are almost identical, so, why people place more weighs on cat's earning than intc's? should it be true that intc's earning say a lot more than cat's in the new economy? of course, we can leave all these questions to those who have more times on their hand. For us, the urgent question is now what?
John Lennon once sang "we do not need hero", so, we do not want to and cannot be heros, if the market wants to go down, stay out of way, just because LDK was $70 two weeks ago does not mean that it will go back to $70 again anytime soon.
VIX is trending higher, volatilities will still be here stay, it may mean that the profit could be more elusive and fleeing, so, take profit if we can, there is no bad profit. On Friday, the bearish mood was so prevalent that a quick "short" would be a good trade, and going forward, there will be such days..
With bath water, there are no doubt some babies are thrown out, it also is the good time to find good bargains as well.
It is hard to know the motivation of an individual, it is even harder to explain the market. The market maybe act out to draw the attention of FED, with end of October fast approaching, the Friday may be a good setup for the FED play just like what happened in August...
Wouldn't that be nice :)
So, the old wound reopened and nightmare enacted,but how much is the concidence and how much is fundamentally driven?
No doubt, the dismay earning from cat, 3m and honeywlll contribute mostly to the Friday's declines. It is reported that this quarter could be the first quarter in 5 years that year-over-year earning growth is negative. If in the coming days, more companys present the same view as CAT did Friday that economy may enter into a recession, the P/Es of the market will be re-priced, which is a nice way to say that the market can go even further down from here. No wonder, there are talks during the weekend that we may see the lows set in August again.
There are still silver linings in the earning front, however. Next week, we will have chance to see how APPLE, MSFT and AMZN are doing. They are all capable of surprising in the positive side, which could turn the tide in the favor of bull. To say that is the last hope for bull is not an exaggration.
Oil could back off as the geopolitical crisis are dissolved thanks to the congress backed off from condemning Turkey, also, the slowdown economy should comsume less energy.
Such is how the drama is played out in Wall Street, there will be good, bad and something in between everyday. If all investors use the same pricing model and value the assets the same, there will no "bid" or "ask" in the market, and the equity will become cash where $1 is $1...
INTC is 3 times as big as CAT, and the revenue from both companys are almost identical, so, why people place more weighs on cat's earning than intc's? should it be true that intc's earning say a lot more than cat's in the new economy? of course, we can leave all these questions to those who have more times on their hand. For us, the urgent question is now what?
John Lennon once sang "we do not need hero", so, we do not want to and cannot be heros, if the market wants to go down, stay out of way, just because LDK was $70 two weeks ago does not mean that it will go back to $70 again anytime soon.
VIX is trending higher, volatilities will still be here stay, it may mean that the profit could be more elusive and fleeing, so, take profit if we can, there is no bad profit. On Friday, the bearish mood was so prevalent that a quick "short" would be a good trade, and going forward, there will be such days..
With bath water, there are no doubt some babies are thrown out, it also is the good time to find good bargains as well.
It is hard to know the motivation of an individual, it is even harder to explain the market. The market maybe act out to draw the attention of FED, with end of October fast approaching, the Friday may be a good setup for the FED play just like what happened in August...
Wouldn't that be nice :)
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