正文

expect unexpected

(2007-09-07 21:16:22) 下一個
It does not matter how small the chance is, the rare event will always happen in the Wall Street.  The Long Term Investment, with its crew filled with Ph. Ds and Noble prize winners, estimated that calmity that eventually brought it down can only occur once in a million years, but it happened and LTM become the ignomity in the case studies throughout business schools.

Well, one of those unexpected happened today.  It is long known that the job report will be weak, before the 7:30 this morning, the talking heads on CNBC are still talking about 80,000 new jobs.   The negative growth of the job market caught everyone (me included ) by surprise, and the market rightly be spooked.

 In the company that I am working, our sale chief misforcasted the demand of the market, and he is gone for good. But obviously, if your title contains "ist", then, you are immune from any consequence.  I am pretty sure, these same "ist" will still provide their opinion next month and beyond.     how could one miss the mark by a mile ?  and they are still  being called "ist". Imagine a doctor make such misjudgement, how many people will die and how many life sentence will be handed down.

Well, there are more fake sciences and wrongly placed effort of human beings other than "ist", let's have some compassion on them.

how will we go from here. actually,  thing remain little changed despite one day's event.
  1). volatility stays.  
  2). market is range bound.
  3). for the short term, short term trading probably serves better.

We had hoped that tech(nasdaq) will provide some leadership, but that leadership is under renewed test, and DOW could reach its low three weeks ago.

But there are hopes.
   1). Is there another shoes that is going to drop?  maybe all the bad news is flushed out already.
   2).  rate cut is almost certain. 

So, let's wait and see what will happen next week.  the market never short of drama




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