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it is flight to safety

(2007-09-10 19:43:16) 下一個

Bond are bidded up(tlt is in the over bought situation), so are the gold and big cap stocks.  what does it tell you?

It basically says that the people are seeking safety and the market are not sure about the future (at least near term).  Volume are low, we will probably be in this range for quite some time until some news (good or bad ) to bring some clarity to the direction of the market.

Maybe we can say the market is in an equilibrium,  a tight balance that any little news could tip the scale one way or the other. This is evidented by euphoried openning on the back of intel/apple news and then a quick swing  to the negative after hear no clear indication of rate cut from a federal officer. At the end, it ended little changed with both bull and bear to settle their scores.

My strategy is to be patient, unless I see some extreme conditions(both ways), I will hold my horse.

It is hard to say what the near future will be?  will fed cut ?  how much they will cut?  is there be a recession? how about the consumer's spending power?  will the earning be still strong ?   there are just so many un-answered the questions. BTW,  at any given moment, all these questions are not clear, but,  people think they know the answer, but right now, there are great debates about these questions. 

Until perception changs, we are in for some range bound tradings




  

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