每日市場點評 --- May 16, 2008

The market finished this OE session little changed. But for the week as a whole, all three major indices performed pretty well. The Dow was up by 1.9% and the S&P 500 gained 2.7%. The Nasdaq, the best performer among the three, gained four straight days before giving up 0.2% in today’s trading. For the week, it gained 3.4%. The news on the economic front was mixed. On the positive side, we got both Building Permits and Housing Starts unexpected rise from the previous week. On the other hand, one survey of consumer sentiment showed the worst sentiment in 28 years. Crude oil, after a choppy session yesterday, resumed its climb and closed at a fresh historical high.

Commodities were again leaders in today’s market as money kept pouring into the red-hot sector. The CRB commodity index gained more than 1% while the Baltic Dry Index closed at a new historical high. It is truly amazing to see the BDI index keep hitting new historical highs in May, which is traditionally a slow month for the bulk shipping sector. Just five years ago one can rent a cape-size drybulk ship for less than 10K a day. Today the price tag is well above 210K. That is a 2000% rise in 5 years --- when people talk about 3% or 5% or even 8% inflation rate, we should note that some sectors have experienced price increase well above 1000% in the past few years. Indeed that’s something to keep an eye on. Of course one can blame the broad rise in commodity prices on weaker dollar, which happened to close lower against most major currencies in today’s trading. Treasuries were little changed but traders have already started to build in a small chance of interest rate increase by September. The world is changing faster than ever, isn’t it?