股海一粟的博客
投資是一門藝術，投資是一所永遠的學校。股海一粟第一次接觸到股票還是在1988年，那時候上海隻有老八股，沒有正規的交易所。。。那一年股海一粟隻有10歲。
正文
The market closed the day in a mixed fashion. The Dow, the only loser among the three major indices, swung between positive and negative territories for at least 30 times before finishing the day with a loss of 16 points. It was not a small achievement considering most news of the day was negative. In addition, no sharp sell off in recent winners after the recent run-up was also considered to be positive for the market moving forward.
Consumers seemed to be quite nervous these days after observing record high oil price and record drop in their home value. And recent turmoil in the financial market didn’t help the matter either. Hence, it should be no surprise to see their sentiment turning sour. In fact, it deteriorated even faster than economists forecasted. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for March fell to 64.5, the lowest in 5 years. Economists expected a drop to 73.5. Even more troubling, the expectations for the next six months tumbled to 47.9, the lowest since 1973. Although there is no direct relationship between consumer confidence and the actual spending, chances are we may see further weakness in retail spending until the rebate checks kick in starting in early May. Separately, the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 10.7% from a year ago following a 9% decrease in December. The index tracks home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas and it has fallen for 13 consecutive months after today’s results.
With the CRB commodity index rebounding from last week’s 8.7% plunge, commodities were the biggest winners of today’s trading. Technologies were also quite strong while financials and retailers took a breath. Treasuries had mixed results. The yields on the 10-year note dropped while the yields on the 3-month bill jumped by 24 bps. It appears that the worst of the recent liquidity crisis is behind us. But some caution is warranted as banks continue to hold their willingness to lend to each other. The US dollar dropped against most major currencies while gold price climbed by 2%. It is worth noting that the Dow Transportation Average continued to outperform its twin brother and is up more than 7% so far in 2008.
Consumers seemed to be quite nervous these days after observing record high oil price and record drop in their home value. And recent turmoil in the financial market didn’t help the matter either. Hence, it should be no surprise to see their sentiment turning sour. In fact, it deteriorated even faster than economists forecasted. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for March fell to 64.5, the lowest in 5 years. Economists expected a drop to 73.5. Even more troubling, the expectations for the next six months tumbled to 47.9, the lowest since 1973. Although there is no direct relationship between consumer confidence and the actual spending, chances are we may see further weakness in retail spending until the rebate checks kick in starting in early May. Separately, the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 10.7% from a year ago following a 9% decrease in December. The index tracks home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas and it has fallen for 13 consecutive months after today’s results.
With the CRB commodity index rebounding from last week’s 8.7% plunge, commodities were the biggest winners of today’s trading. Technologies were also quite strong while financials and retailers took a breath. Treasuries had mixed results. The yields on the 10-year note dropped while the yields on the 3-month bill jumped by 24 bps. It appears that the worst of the recent liquidity crisis is behind us. But some caution is warranted as banks continue to hold their willingness to lend to each other. The US dollar dropped against most major currencies while gold price climbed by 2%. It is worth noting that the Dow Transportation Average continued to outperform its twin brother and is up more than 7% so far in 2008.
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