每日市場點評--- December 20, 2007

Oracle’s upbeat earning news did give a boost to big cap tech stocks while financial stocks were struggling to find a bottom. Most economic news today was negative: a). Initial claims rose more than expected to 346K. More important, the four-week moving average of claims rose to 2.63 million, the highest level in almost two years, indicating continuing worsening job market. b). The Leading Indicator came at -0.4%, following the previous month’s -0.5%. c). The Philadelphia Fed Index came at -5.7, the first negative reading for this index in 2007. d). The total amount of commercial paper (CP) outstanding fell by $54.7 billion, the largest weekly decline since last August. Investors cannot find much comfort in today’s earning news either: Bear Stearns followed Morgan’s dismal earning report yesterday and posted a bigger than expected loss while FedEX issued a profit warning for the next quarter. So it is quite remarkable that the market can hold onto itself.


As if seven years are not long enough, today’s Wall Street has so many things in common compared to the Silicon Valley back in 2000. Back then, many big tech names dropped 50% or even more in a single year and today I would like to take a look at how some of the Wall Street firms have fared so far this year: a). Commercial banks – Citi(high of the year: $57, now: $29.89); Washington Mutual (high: $46.38, now: $14.67) b). Brokerages – Morgan Stanley(high: $77.31, now: $51.37); Merrill Lynch(high: $98.68, now: $54.50); Bear Stearns(high: $172.61, now: $91.42) c). The so-called crown companies – Freddie Mac (high: $69.25, now: $31.48); Fannie Mae (high: $70.57, now $35.65); Sallie Mae (high: $58, now: $20.72) d). Bond insurers – MBIA (high: $76.02, now: $19.95); Security Capital (high: $34.58, now: $4.00); ACA Capital (high: $16.55, now: $0.80)... The list can go on and on.