每日市場點評 - Oct 4, 2007

As expected, the market is moving little as investors are keenly waiting for tomorrow\'s job report. It is the previous month\'s report that pretty much determined Fed\'s stance towards rate cuts. Ironically, either a better-than-expected report or a worse-than-expected report can cause selloff in the market. As the market currently has priced in another rate cut at the end of this month, a good report will lessen the necessity of doing so. On the other hand, if the report were much worse than expected, investors may start truly thinking about the possibility of a recession sometime down the road. So expect some volatility in the market if the number deviates too much from the consensus(read as:+/-50000;currently the consensus is 100K). Oil price closed higher today and now is back above the 80 mark. Since it\'s a very quiet day, it\'s worth spending a few minutes reviewing some big pictures undergoing right now: 1). As I mentioned several times before, one important investment theme this year is that everything related to emerging Asia growth(mainly China and India) is doing particularly well while anything related to the US housing market is doing terrible(if you don\'t believe, just rank all sectors within S&P and you will see what I\'m talking about). I believe this theme will continue for a while until some unexpected force turns the whole tide; 2). As the US dollar has dropped over 33% on average against major currencies for the past 5 years, some smart money will(or is already) start to grasp US assets. Remember, one important thing to beat the rest of the market is to think ahead of the crowds(but not too ahead). As most people are still talking about weakening dollar, I believe it\'s time(or close) to bet on the dollar; 3). This year is the third year in the US presidential term, which historically is doing very well. So a fourth quarter rally is very likely. And compared to many other asset groups, US equity is actually not that expensive.

[SINEAD4273]

So, should we buy U.S$?

Indeed, U.S$ has dropped so much, ......