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Not trying to scare you and joke you: New study find DC region housevalue to rise 3000 percent in 50 years. How much will it rise in 10years? It's easy for you to figure that out. DC area is one of theremaining "affordable" (if you regard $477K median as affordable)markets that will have almost guaranteed return over the long term. Idon't really care about 30 times return in 50 years, I am not thatgreedy and I don't have that much time. 2 times return in 7-10 years isalready sweat enough to me personally.
Additionally, the report indicates that although house value willincrease 30 times in 50 years, household income will only increase fromtoday's $137K to $1.3 million. From this deviation, future homeaffordability is going to get extremely and disproportionally worse. In2057, it's going to take 11 times earning to buy an average-pricedhome. Scary indeed!
By the way, this is not a practical joke, it's a report from a seriousgovernment sponsored urban research institute. What this report comesdown us in everyday life? Here is my take, if you want your children tohave a decent quality of life when they get middle aged, I beg youparents to invest a house for them today. That's a show of yourparental mercy.
This report is the first such report that projects this far into thefuture. I couldn't find any similar official report that projects Bayarea's future. But my bet is that the outcome is going to be similar,probably worse than DC area.
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http://www.examiner.com/printa-755988~House_values_to_grow_significantly_in_region:_Study.html
Local
House values to grow significantly in region: Study
(Michael Riccio/For The Examiner)
Dr. Stephen Fuller, center, a professor of public policy and regionaldevelopment at George Mason University, talks Wednesday about thefuture of the Washington, D.C., metro region at a panel hosted by theMetropolitan Washington Council of Governments at George WashingtonUniversity. Joe Rogalsky, The Examiner
2007-05-31 12:41:00.0
WASHINGTON -
The average price of a home in the national capital region likely willswell almost 3,000 percent in 50 years, according to a study releasedWednesday. The findings, discussed at a forum sponsored by theMetropolitan Washington Council of Governments, show that the price ofthe average home in the area will grow to $14 million in 2057 fromtoday’s average of $477,000.
Researchers predicted, however, the average household income would onlyclimb to $1.3 million from today’s $137,000 during the same period.
“We already have an affordability problem,” said George MasonUniversity professor Stephen Fuller, who calculated the estimates. “Butthis is really scary. It is going to take 11 times the averagehousehold income to afford the average-priced house.”
Fuller said local governments can keep home prices from hitting thatlevel by enacting policies that give builders incentives to constructless-expensive housing.
The size of the average home has ballooned in recent years, he said, making many houses unaffordable.
Instead of spending billions on major transportation projects, he said,localities should consider using some of the money to spur constructionof affordable housing.
“A lot of people, not just poor people, cannot afford to live here,”said Fuller, the director of GMU’s Center for Regional Analysis. “Weneed more density, smaller lot sizes, smaller house sizes to makehousing cheaper. The housing problem is the solution to thetransportation problems. We need more workers who can afford to livenear their jobs.”
The national capital region’s boundaries will stretch from Baltimore toRichmond, the study forecasts, and the population will jump to 9.9million from today’s 5.5 million.
A higher population will only worsen the situation on the area’s already overtaxed road network, experts said.
But the commuting pain can be eased if more affordable housing is created so people can live closer to the office, they added.
“You have to look at housing and transportation together,” said HarrietTregoning, director of D.C.’s Office of Planning. “If you live far awayfrom where you work, you are captive to gas prices. You have nowhere togo except back to the pump to fill up three or four times a week.”
Tregoning also said urban planners should encourage more developmentaround mass-transit centers to discourage new residents from cloggingthe roadways.
jrogalsky@dcexaminer.com
Additionally, the report indicates that although house value willincrease 30 times in 50 years, household income will only increase fromtoday's $137K to $1.3 million. From this deviation, future homeaffordability is going to get extremely and disproportionally worse. In2057, it's going to take 11 times earning to buy an average-pricedhome. Scary indeed!
By the way, this is not a practical joke, it's a report from a seriousgovernment sponsored urban research institute. What this report comesdown us in everyday life? Here is my take, if you want your children tohave a decent quality of life when they get middle aged, I beg youparents to invest a house for them today. That's a show of yourparental mercy.
This report is the first such report that projects this far into thefuture. I couldn't find any similar official report that projects Bayarea's future. But my bet is that the outcome is going to be similar,probably worse than DC area.
=================================================================
http://www.examiner.com/printa-755988~House_values_to_grow_significantly_in_region:_Study.html
Local
House values to grow significantly in region: Study
(Michael Riccio/For The Examiner)
Dr. Stephen Fuller, center, a professor of public policy and regionaldevelopment at George Mason University, talks Wednesday about thefuture of the Washington, D.C., metro region at a panel hosted by theMetropolitan Washington Council of Governments at George WashingtonUniversity. Joe Rogalsky, The Examiner
2007-05-31 12:41:00.0
WASHINGTON -
The average price of a home in the national capital region likely willswell almost 3,000 percent in 50 years, according to a study releasedWednesday. The findings, discussed at a forum sponsored by theMetropolitan Washington Council of Governments, show that the price ofthe average home in the area will grow to $14 million in 2057 fromtoday’s average of $477,000.
Researchers predicted, however, the average household income would onlyclimb to $1.3 million from today’s $137,000 during the same period.
“We already have an affordability problem,” said George MasonUniversity professor Stephen Fuller, who calculated the estimates. “Butthis is really scary. It is going to take 11 times the averagehousehold income to afford the average-priced house.”
Fuller said local governments can keep home prices from hitting thatlevel by enacting policies that give builders incentives to constructless-expensive housing.
The size of the average home has ballooned in recent years, he said, making many houses unaffordable.
Instead of spending billions on major transportation projects, he said,localities should consider using some of the money to spur constructionof affordable housing.
“A lot of people, not just poor people, cannot afford to live here,”said Fuller, the director of GMU’s Center for Regional Analysis. “Weneed more density, smaller lot sizes, smaller house sizes to makehousing cheaper. The housing problem is the solution to thetransportation problems. We need more workers who can afford to livenear their jobs.”
The national capital region’s boundaries will stretch from Baltimore toRichmond, the study forecasts, and the population will jump to 9.9million from today’s 5.5 million.
A higher population will only worsen the situation on the area’s already overtaxed road network, experts said.
But the commuting pain can be eased if more affordable housing is created so people can live closer to the office, they added.
“You have to look at housing and transportation together,” said HarrietTregoning, director of D.C.’s Office of Planning. “If you live far awayfrom where you work, you are captive to gas prices. You have nowhere togo except back to the pump to fill up three or four times a week.”
Tregoning also said urban planners should encourage more developmentaround mass-transit centers to discourage new residents from cloggingthe roadways.
jrogalsky@dcexaminer.com
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